2025/26 Champions League league phase Data Round-up

Liverpool have qualified for the last 16 of the Champions League. Did they deserve to? How strong was their underlying performance?

The horrifically titled Champions League league phase is complete for 2025/26. There were not too many surprises in the standings. The most eye-catching name in the top eight is Sporting CP. It’s one thing for Tottenham to rise from Pot 3 in the draw to automatic qualification given the Premier League’s financial power, it’s another for a Primeira Liga team to do likewise.

Eight of the nine Pot 1 clubs finished in the top 11, with only Dortmund further adrift. A similar story played out in reverse at the wrong end of the table, with only two of the 12 eliminated sides having been drawn from Pot 2.

European football has largely offered some respite for Liverpool from their Premier League travails. Both that sentiment and Arne Slot’s job security were deeply undermined by the catastrophic 4-1 home loss to PSV Eindhoven. The away victories in Germany, Italy and France were among the best performances the Reds have delivered this season though.

Going into the final matchweek, Liverpool had played the 10th most difficult set of fixtures based on the current position of their opponents. The final night chaos saw that drop to 22nd, albeit they had still faced the third toughest matches of the teams that finished in the top eight. As Opta said the Reds had the seventh easiest matches after the draw was made, several of the teams they faced overachieved.

Liverpool also generated more expected points than they amassed in reality. The data suggests they deserved draws with Galatasaray and PSV on the balance of chances despite both opponents being awarded a penalty. Irrespective of your thoughts on that, you will feel greater sympathy for Villarreal than the Reds when you see the xPts table.

Liverpool amassed 5.91 expected goals in their 6-0 thumping of Qarabağ, their highest non-penalty total in the data era. It was also at least 1.3 xG more than any side has amassed in the Champions League this term, carrying the Reds to the top of the expected goal difference standings.

The next chart highlights exactly why Slot’s men collected fewer points than they perhaps deserved in the league phase.

Liverpool were one of just eight clubs who underperformed against their xG at both ends of the field. Their rates were 0.95 in attack (20 goals divided by 21.0 xG) and 0.85 at the back (6.8 xGA against eight goals conceded), giving an overall score of 1.80. Only seven teams had worse combined figures, none of whom finished above 21st in the table.

The front line was particularly frustrating in that they missed 30 Opta-defined big chances, the most of any team. It has been a problem for the Reds no matter the competition this season, but squandering a trio of clear-cut chances in both of their defeats clearly shaped their league phase campaign.

But, hey, there are worse problems to have. A team (or player) can only miss a lot of big chances by having enough of them. The men who missed often had Dominik Szoboszlai or Cody Gakpo to thank for having the opportunity, as they joint-lead the Champions League (along with Charles De Ketelaere) for creating clear-cut chances this season, with seven.

Liverpool didn’t concede many of them, with their total of 12 only bettered by Arsenal (nine) and Sporting CP (11, which may help explain how they beat the odds). The Reds’ finished second for big chance difference as well as for shots and shots on target. They were the only team in the top two for all three.

The Reds also had the best goal and xG differences on set plays, a marked change when compared to their domestic dead ball issues. Their underlying xG figures remain strong if we strip out chances from corners, free-kicks, throw-ins and penalties. Liverpool lead both of the two main competitions for open play expected goal difference in 2025/26. They’re doing a lot of things right in the general run of play, it’s the other stuff that is dragging them down.

The Reds compiled their impressive statistics in this competition by dominating all facets of matches more easily than in the Premier League. The Reds have had eight games in which their average defensive line was at least 53 metres up the pitch; three in the league, five in Europe.

This greater control is reflected in the gap between their touches in opposition penalty areas and those allowed in their own box. Liverpool’s league average is 12.6, almost eight behind the 20.4 - the second best in the competition behind PSG (22.6) - they have recorded in the Champions League.

We shouldn’t be surprised that European football has proven easier for them. The current Opta rankings suggest five of the Reds opponents would be around the bottom five in the Premier League. Leaving aside the problems that newly promoted teams have given Liverpool (who also lost to two of the five worst teams they faced in the Champions League by these standings), you can see why the Reds should’ve done well against many of the teams they’ve played.

There were some negatives beyond the second half against PSV. Liverpool had 32 Opta-defined build-up attacks without any of them ending with a goal. Their press didn’t deliver much output either. The Reds ranked seventh for high turnovers but joint-12th for shots generated from them. Not one resulted in a goal, which is strange when the Reds lead the Premier League for this, with six. Mark it down as the inverse of the set pieces, I guess.

How Liverpool got into the top eight almost doesn’t matter. That’s more true this season than in most others in light of the pressure Slot is under. A team that can dominate the metrics like they have will surely have a chance in the knock-out phase though. They couldn’t go all the way, could they?