2025/26 Champions League league phase Data Round-up
Liverpool have qualified for the last 16 of the Champions League. Did they deserve to? How strong was their underlying performance?
The horrifically titled Champions League league phase is complete for 2025/26. There were not too many surprises in the standings. The most eye-catching name in the top eight is Sporting CP. It’s one thing for Tottenham to rise from Pot 3 in the draw to automatic qualification given the Premier League’s financial power, it’s another for a Primeira Liga team to do likewise.
Eight of the nine Pot 1 clubs finished in the top 11, with only Dortmund further adrift. A similar story played out in reverse at the wrong end of the table, with only two of the 12 eliminated sides having been drawn from Pot 2.
European football has largely offered some respite for Liverpool from their Premier League travails. Both that sentiment and Arne Slot’s job security were deeply undermined by the catastrophic 4-1 home loss to PSV Eindhoven. The away victories in Germany, Italy and France were among the best performances the Reds have delivered this season though.
Going into the final matchweek, Liverpool had played the 10th most difficult set of fixtures based on the current position of their opponents. The final night chaos saw that drop to 22nd, albeit they had still faced the third toughest matches of the teams that finished in the top eight. As Opta said the Reds had the seventh easiest matches after the draw was made, several of the teams they faced overachieved.
Liverpool also generated more expected points than they amassed in reality. The data suggests they deserved draws with Galatasaray and PSV on the balance of chances despite both opponents being awarded a penalty. Irrespective of your thoughts on that, you will feel greater sympathy for Villarreal than the Reds when you see the xPts table.
Liverpool amassed 5.91 expected goals in their 6-0 thumping of Qarabağ, their highest non-penalty total in the data era. It was also at least 1.3 xG more than any side has amassed in the Champions League this term, carrying the Reds to the top of the expected goal difference standings.
The next chart highlights exactly why Slot’s men collected fewer points than they perhaps deserved in the league phase.
