There aren't many concerns regarding Liverpool's record signing. Isak's availability history for Newcastle might be one, and not just when he's on strike
A very real concern. Just had a look, after his groin injury in November 2023 he started five games in 15 days, then had a sub app three days later before a two-game absence. It's on Liverpool to manage him correctly.
So Dan/Andrew, as two guys with a lot of data insight..
My working theory is that looking at the data, the next evolution of “getting value for money in squad building”
… is all injury prevention.
If you move past Ian Grahams early work on “why transfer fail” and LFC’s view of “spending money on the pitch”
The next step is “keep you money on the pitch”
And this is such a key factor in why teams don’t perform as expected right back to our 20/21 season. Since then, city, arsenal, Newcastle.. almost every team that has had a really good year of no injuries and success has been hammered by injuries the year after.
*and* if you look at whether LFC signings have been a success, Nunez aside it’s mainly injuries that cast doubt (naby, ox, Thiago).
So right now, if I’m in LFC’s data, recruitment & performance brains trust, my focus is identify the talent.. then keep them fit.
The edge now is not in data scouting as much as everyone is doing that… you can do it better but… the new edge will be in keeping your players fit.
So… this season is going to be where we see if that plays out. Because last season we had a fit 11 for most of the season and they all played lots of minutes, so historically this season should er not be the same (🤞we break the pattern)
You could be right. I’ve said/written it a lot but Liverpool started most of their top paid players every week last season. Keep them on the field and they’ve got a chance.
Ability has always meant very little without availability.
And the best predictor of future injury has always been previous injury.
So while credit should be given to slot's backroom team for the low injury incidence, its difficult to know how much credit because its far more important to buy players who:
1) have low/no injury history
2) have shown they can play sat-wed-sat over an extended period
Other than isak, all our other signings have been almost bombproof with injuries. And this follows the midfield rebuild where mac/dom/Grav were the same.
Edwards was in charge when we signed Ox and Konate, 2 players with big injury histories who have gone onto have patchy availability with LFC. (I think Konate is the most similar comparison to Isak). Klopp bought Thiago and that was a clear risk that failed badly. (Keita's injuries only started in the final year at RBL after the deal was signed).
But the rebuild signings since summer 2023 have almost exclusively got excellent injury records.
On the backroom team change under slot, remember that overall player load is training + matches and slot reduced the training load by almost 50% vs klopp. This has pros and cons as it can result in better availability but it makes it difficult for fringe players to get up to speed as you only get fully match fit by playing matches.
Signings wise, it definitely looked is that way. I think one of the greatest strengths of LFC/FSG as an Org is the will and ability to learn from “mistakes”, you can see an iterative progression.
I do think prior injury history is definitely a key consideration in signings.
Re slot changes - I think klopp was also old school “play through pain” kind of player too, who had a few battles with the medical department.
I didn’t know the training load had reduced 50% (and meeting have increased to fill that time I hear!) - I think we’ve discussed before, but I think maybe slots periodisation evolution is the next step from integrating fitness & tactical at match intensity.. to integrating matches as your fitness training.
Means you may start the season slower, but should get fitter and reduce loads drastically. It also seems the only real way to go when at a top team when most of the season you basically just recover between matches.
Agree on non starters being a bit rusty..
But I think it really shifts the main tactical requirement to being the coaches ability to communicate ideas through other means then reparations in training sessions.. meetings, videos, tactic boards whatever.
(I have wondered if coaches/teams ever set up fifa or similar the way they want to play and have players play it to see how it should work 😂)
When we were looking to replace klopp i was going on a bit that one of the key requirements of a top
Manager is being able to read the game, interpret and communicate in order to make those half time tactical changes… because we won’t have a week to prepare for games and our opponents often will.
Slot demonstrated this from the first game.
And I guess you also need to sign players who can absorb those messages. (Nunez stayed fit but struggled with this for sure)
It’s really interesting to see if the “train at the intensity you play at” kind of mantra has been moved away from in season as the player just don’t have time to play, and train and that intensity and recover in between..
I think people massively under appreciate both the athleticism and the tactical intelligence of (most) modern elite footballers
One other thing to add re Slot's approach (which I've just remembered...): Opta pointed out last season that Konate and van Dijk were among the top four outfielders for least distance covered per 90. Logically that sort of thing should help on the injury front too.
Though I suppose in the last month they barely moved on the pitch but covered top distance on worldwide dance floors..
The evolution of klopp style was always using cohesion, effort, coordination, intensity.. the system.. to overcome a lack of talent compared to the top teams, because he couldn’t afford to buy it.
Once we could afford to buy players who were as technical it seemed natural that a different approach would be required due to different conditions.
All good points. I don’t think Konaté has been that bad outside 2022/23, with two, six and eight games missed in his other three seasons. He’s made more appearances per games missed (3.8) than Matip, Lovren and Gomez (since 2016/17 when I started noting the data), and a little above team average too (3.6). These aren't high bars but I bet his reputation with the fanbase is far worse.
The biggest challenge LFC will have is trying to maintain that upward trend playing Sat-Wed-Sat from September to March.
That's the biggest difference, a game every 3 days and Isak has never shown he can do it for an extended period
A very real concern. Just had a look, after his groin injury in November 2023 he started five games in 15 days, then had a sub app three days later before a two-game absence. It's on Liverpool to manage him correctly.
I’m 100% with you on the 100mins per week style of thing.
We just can’t start most players in 2/3 games per week.
I don’t think it’s just Isak though, but we will definitely need to rotate.
We also then may have a striker in hot form come the end of the season…
So Dan/Andrew, as two guys with a lot of data insight..
My working theory is that looking at the data, the next evolution of “getting value for money in squad building”
… is all injury prevention.
If you move past Ian Grahams early work on “why transfer fail” and LFC’s view of “spending money on the pitch”
The next step is “keep you money on the pitch”
And this is such a key factor in why teams don’t perform as expected right back to our 20/21 season. Since then, city, arsenal, Newcastle.. almost every team that has had a really good year of no injuries and success has been hammered by injuries the year after.
*and* if you look at whether LFC signings have been a success, Nunez aside it’s mainly injuries that cast doubt (naby, ox, Thiago).
So right now, if I’m in LFC’s data, recruitment & performance brains trust, my focus is identify the talent.. then keep them fit.
The edge now is not in data scouting as much as everyone is doing that… you can do it better but… the new edge will be in keeping your players fit.
So… this season is going to be where we see if that plays out. Because last season we had a fit 11 for most of the season and they all played lots of minutes, so historically this season should er not be the same (🤞we break the pattern)
Any thoughts, ideas, insights?
You could be right. I’ve said/written it a lot but Liverpool started most of their top paid players every week last season. Keep them on the field and they’ve got a chance.
There's a few aspects to this.
Ability has always meant very little without availability.
And the best predictor of future injury has always been previous injury.
So while credit should be given to slot's backroom team for the low injury incidence, its difficult to know how much credit because its far more important to buy players who:
1) have low/no injury history
2) have shown they can play sat-wed-sat over an extended period
Other than isak, all our other signings have been almost bombproof with injuries. And this follows the midfield rebuild where mac/dom/Grav were the same.
Edwards was in charge when we signed Ox and Konate, 2 players with big injury histories who have gone onto have patchy availability with LFC. (I think Konate is the most similar comparison to Isak). Klopp bought Thiago and that was a clear risk that failed badly. (Keita's injuries only started in the final year at RBL after the deal was signed).
But the rebuild signings since summer 2023 have almost exclusively got excellent injury records.
On the backroom team change under slot, remember that overall player load is training + matches and slot reduced the training load by almost 50% vs klopp. This has pros and cons as it can result in better availability but it makes it difficult for fringe players to get up to speed as you only get fully match fit by playing matches.
Signings wise, it definitely looked is that way. I think one of the greatest strengths of LFC/FSG as an Org is the will and ability to learn from “mistakes”, you can see an iterative progression.
I do think prior injury history is definitely a key consideration in signings.
Re slot changes - I think klopp was also old school “play through pain” kind of player too, who had a few battles with the medical department.
I didn’t know the training load had reduced 50% (and meeting have increased to fill that time I hear!) - I think we’ve discussed before, but I think maybe slots periodisation evolution is the next step from integrating fitness & tactical at match intensity.. to integrating matches as your fitness training.
Means you may start the season slower, but should get fitter and reduce loads drastically. It also seems the only real way to go when at a top team when most of the season you basically just recover between matches.
Agree on non starters being a bit rusty..
But I think it really shifts the main tactical requirement to being the coaches ability to communicate ideas through other means then reparations in training sessions.. meetings, videos, tactic boards whatever.
(I have wondered if coaches/teams ever set up fifa or similar the way they want to play and have players play it to see how it should work 😂)
When we were looking to replace klopp i was going on a bit that one of the key requirements of a top
Manager is being able to read the game, interpret and communicate in order to make those half time tactical changes… because we won’t have a week to prepare for games and our opponents often will.
Slot demonstrated this from the first game.
And I guess you also need to sign players who can absorb those messages. (Nunez stayed fit but struggled with this for sure)
It’s really interesting to see if the “train at the intensity you play at” kind of mantra has been moved away from in season as the player just don’t have time to play, and train and that intensity and recover in between..
I think people massively under appreciate both the athleticism and the tactical intelligence of (most) modern elite footballers
One other thing to add re Slot's approach (which I've just remembered...): Opta pointed out last season that Konate and van Dijk were among the top four outfielders for least distance covered per 90. Logically that sort of thing should help on the injury front too.
Wow that I did not know or expect..
Though I suppose in the last month they barely moved on the pitch but covered top distance on worldwide dance floors..
The evolution of klopp style was always using cohesion, effort, coordination, intensity.. the system.. to overcome a lack of talent compared to the top teams, because he couldn’t afford to buy it.
Once we could afford to buy players who were as technical it seemed natural that a different approach would be required due to different conditions.
But that’s still quite a drastic change I imagine
Yeah konate hasn't been that bad if you accept that he's a 3k mins per season player (like Isak) and not salah/van dijk.
To illustrate:
------
Total minutes played last 3 seasons inc internationals (per season):
Salah 14233 (4744)
Isak 10148 (3383)
Konate 9828 (3276)
Isak plays the same as Konate overall.
Salah plays 30% more than both
-------
% of PL starts last 3 seasons
90 Salah
68 Isak
56 Konate
% of PL minutes last 3 seasons
89 Salah
64 Isak
55 Konate
I suppose the question in a way is “are van Dijk and Salah physical freaks for their age or the norm?”
They're freaks but ideally you'd want your players capable of playing 4-4.5k mins a season rather than 3k.
I can live with konate and isak only playing 3k this season for us as they are excellent quality
All good points. I don’t think Konaté has been that bad outside 2022/23, with two, six and eight games missed in his other three seasons. He’s made more appearances per games missed (3.8) than Matip, Lovren and Gomez (since 2016/17 when I started noting the data), and a little above team average too (3.6). These aren't high bars but I bet his reputation with the fanbase is far worse.
Just throwing it out there but this is perhaps why we also bought Ekitike, perhaps we actually know what we are doing
Perhaps!
Haha