Alexander-Arnold's Absence is Not Responsible for Salah's Downturn

Well, not entirely. Trent Alexander-Arnold's departure may not be as significant for Mohamed Salah as we all assume though.

Liverpool have made a stuttering start to the 2025/26 campaign. Even though there are several key players who are not performing close to their best, it is Mohamed Salah who has drawn so much of the media glare.

‘Why Liverpool Are Struggling to Get the Best Out of Mohamed Salah’, ‘Should Liverpool be worried about Mohamed Salah’s form?’ and ‘Mohamed Salah’s gambling backfires for Liverpool’ are three recent articles that delved into the Egyptian’s form.

Others have tried to explain it through the absence of a right-sided colleague: ‘Mohamed Salah missing Trent Alexander-Arnold’s service at Liverpool’ and ‘Liverpool’s struggles show that Trent Alexander-Arnold is not easily replaced’ are a couple of examples. The Real Madrid right-back is usually mentioned in the articles that don’t carry his name in the headline too. Yet Alexander-Arnold’s influence upon Salah’s output has not been as influential as you probably assume.

Before we get to that, it’s only right to put expectations for the 33-year-old into fair context, as we recently did for Florian Wirtz. Salah delivered 38 non-penalty goal contributions in the league last season, second only to Lionel Messi’s 41 in 2019/20 for men in their age-32 campaign in England, France, Germany, Italy or Spain.

The Argentine GOAT produced 36 the following year, with Zlatan Ibrahimovic logging a remarkable 46 when he was 33 years old in a Ligue 1 warped by the spending power of his club, Paris Saint-Germain. Maintaining that sort of level has proven much harder in the Premier League.

The top 10 players for non-penalty output when 32 who remained in the English top flight the following season went on to see their collective tally shrink by 102 goal contributions. Their output shrunk by 48.6 per cent, 26 percentage points more than their drop in playing time.

Liverpool would have known this history when offering Salah a hefty two-year contract, presumably figuring the Egyptian King was fit enough to out-do earlier veterans. Salah could feasibly become just the sixth forward to clock up 2,600 Premier League minutes in their age 33 season, even allowing for the Africa Cup of Nations depriving him of domestic matches.

The competition’s record for combined non-penalty goals and assists for a player of his age is 16. Twenty contributions from the Reds’ number 11 in 2025/26 would feel underwhelming despite being 25 per cent above anything anyone else has ever produced at his age. As unstoppable as Salah has been, history is against Liverpool’s talisman having anything like as productive a campaign as he enjoyed last term.

Much of the recent analysis has highlighted that his totals are down on this point last season. A better comparison is against what Salah achieved in the corresponding fixtures. It’s also worth checking how involved Alexander-Arnold was in his success.