Arne Slot: Champions League Master
Arne Slot's one Champions League campaign prior to joining Liverpool ended in failure with Feyenoord. His record in the competition is deceptively strong.
When Liverpool appointed Arne Slot, there were no doubts regarding his record in the Eredivisie. In 2019/20 his AZ Alkmaar side were second in the table by goal difference alone when the pandemic brought the campaign to a premature conclusion, despite only having the ninth largest wage bill.
While FiveThirtyEight only gave them a 22 per cent chance of winning the title at that point, they had easier away games than leaders Ajax - whom they had already beaten twice - based on average league position. They might just have gone all the way.
At Feyenoord, Slot’s potential became reality. They won the league in 2022/23, then recorded the highest points total in club history in their title defence the following year. With that form continuing for the Reds’ head coach in England, he has averaged 2.29 points per game across his 157 league match career, 87 points every 38 games.
If there was a concern with Liverpool’s new gaffer when he took the role, it was that he hadn’t achieved anything in the Champions League. Feyenoord finished third in their group last season, failing to qualify for the knockout phase with a game to spare.
They were then eliminated in the last 32 of the Europa League, having reached the quarter-finals of that competition in their Eredivisie title-winning season. Slot’s leading European achievement was steering Feyenoord to the first Europa Conference League final in 2022, in which they lost 1-0 to Roma.
That was a very decent effort with a club that hadn’t got to the round of 16 in any continental competition for two decades. However, Jürgen Klopp had already been to a Champions League final when inheriting a Reds side that was in Europe’s second-tier competition. Slot would expect to do better in the European Cup with Liverpool than he had with Feyenoord, but he needed to.
Kopites need not have been concerned. Even though the Reds were handed the joint-second hardest draw (according to Opta) this season, they finished top of the 36-team pile. It’s worth revisiting Slot’s experience in the 2023/24 group stage. Combining that with what happened this term reveals the Dutchman is building a strong body of work at Europe’s top table.
Last season, Feyenoord were undone by three things which managers across the globe often have reason to bemoan: finishing, bad luck and Diego Simeone. Their campaign had started so well too, with a 2-0 win over Celtic at De Kuip.
But then they travelled to Madrid. Despite an expected goal win by a margin of 1.6, with six Opta-defined big chances to Atlético’s two, the home side won 3-2. “They threatened our goal four times and scored three,” Slot said afterwards.
The FBRef database contains detailed data for 179 Atleti matches at Estadio Wanda Metropolitano, with this the second best non-penalty expected goal difference recorded by a visiting side. With Feyenoord having led twice, defeat will have really stung.
A defeat in the toughest match in the group was not disastrous, especially when they beat Lazio 3-1 at home in their next game. The expected goal data suggested the scoreline flattered Feyenoord, yet the visitors had recorded just one 0.04 xG shot when the Dutch side went 2-0 up in first half stoppage time, later extending their lead further. As we have seen with Liverpool this season, particularly at Old Trafford, a Slot team may ease off once the game is effectively over.
At the half way stage, Feyenoord were top of Group E. Sadly, things went south quickly from there. The biggest value chance of the return match in Rome was converted by Ciro Immobile to secure a 1-0 win for Lazio, with Feyenoord squandering the next five best opportunities according to xG. “Not being able to score cost us the draw. Lazio had a shot on target [in the first half] and one goal. There was a lot of ball possession but also the usual lesson,” Slot mused in his post-match interview.
Though not as dominant as they had been in Madrid, Feyenoord again conceded three times to Atleti in a match from which they deserved something when hosting them in Rotterdam. To accentuate the agony, two of the goals conceded were put through their own net by Slot’s players. Across the two matches with Simeone’s men, the aggregate score was 6-3 to the La Liga side on goals, 3.5 to 2.1 on xG in favour of their Eredivisie opponents.
The trauma concluded with a trip to Glasgow. A 91st minute goal secured a 2-1 win for Celtic in what was a dead rubber encounter for both teams. Sometimes it just isn’t your year.
Feyenoord were the best team in their group for expected points, as well as the top performing side which failed to reach the knockout phase. Only five teams generated more expected goals, albeit Slot’s team conceded more than was ideal.
A team managed by Slot also underperformed against their expected points in the league phase this season. If that seems remarkable considering Liverpool finished in first place, bear in mind they deserved to win the first seven matches before their understrength side lost when worthy of a point in Eindhoven.
With shades of Feyenoord’s Champions League adventure last season, PSV scored with three consecutive shots to take the match away from the Reds. It didn’t matter in terms of finishing top of the league phase, nor that Liverpool’s position atop the standings was deserved.
To get a full understanding of Slot’s Champions League pedigree, we must combine the two seasons together. This gives us a sample of 240 matches in the first phase of the competition across 2023/24 and 2024/25, with 49 different clubs taking part.
By adding last seasons Feyenoord to the present day Reds, we also have ‘Slot FC’ to give us an even 50 teams. Only two of the 19 clubs that played 14 games had a better expected points per game average than what Arne’s two teams delivered between them, with only Arsenal also deserving to remain unbeaten according to the underlying numbers.
The financial disparity across football weakens any comparison of this nature. Nonetheless, let’s try to put what Slot delivered into context.
At the start of the 2023/24 Champions League, Feyenoord were rated by Clubelo as the 34th best team in Europe. In Premier League terms, they were between Crystal Palace and Fulham; would you expect either of those sides to do that well at the highest level of European football?
Liverpool’s standing is naturally higher. But although the squad Slot inherited was clearly talented, the midfield had been rebuilt since the Reds were last in the Champions League. The only new signing from last summer played just 17 minutes in the competition prior to the contractual obligation of the PSV match. Even with the collective experience spread through the squad, this was not automatically a team that you would assume might set a club record for time without conceding a European goal.
Yet they did. They deservedly won seven games in a row, per the numbers, avoiding the potholes which tripped up Feyenoord. It would be foolish to dismiss what Slot achieved with his former team at face value; added to his Liverpool work he has logged a very impressive 14 games. It’s a rock-solid foundation for the bigger tests which lie in wait.