Arne Slot's Eredivisie experience will be crucial in title race
Liverpool have a top-flight winning manager while their Premier League title rivals do not. Feyenoord's 2022/23 season is worth a closer look.
“You won a league with Feyenoord. What is the key to seeing it through?”
“Consistency.”
ARNE SLOT, SPEAKING AFTER LIVERPOOL WON 5-0 AT WEST HAM
Whenever there is a discussion about Liverpool’s title prospects, a key factor in their favour is that they have a core of key players who have been Premier League champions in the past. Mohamed Salah and three-quarters of the back four are among the club’s five most used players in the league this season, with the defensive trio also having been the top three for minutes played in 2019/20.
Were it not for injury, Alisson Becker would start every league game too. There are also players in the squad who were part of a team that took the title fight to the final day, amassing 92 points, in 2021/22. It seems certain a repeat tally would take the title this season.
Even the players that only joined last season were part of a squad that was top of the division in the first week of April. Perhaps Liverpool’s key advantage, though, is that they have a league winning manager in the form of Arne Slot, who lifted the Eredivisie title with Feyenoord in 2022/23.
Mikel Arteta might have been a coach for two of Manchester City’s Premier League crowns, but his own managerial CV extends to one (behind closed doors) FA Cup triumph. Somewhat similarly, Chelsea boss Enzo Maresca’s success extends as far as winning the Championship and England’s under-23 (reserve team) league. He remains free of major trophies, with the Blues’ results in the last week likely removing them from the race in any case.
As we know that the Reds squad is dripping in relevant experience, it feels worth taking a closer look at Slot’s career highlight to date. There are some interesting parallels, even if coincidence may be the only valid explanation for them.
While the conclusion of this season remains unknown, what is true is that Liverpool were not expected to win the title. The Reds were third favourites with bookmakers prior to 2024/25 getting underway. They were given an average 10.6 per cent chance of finishing first, way behind City (40.2) and Arsenal (30.9).
The pundits were not on their side either. Feyenoord were at least joint-second favourites in the summer of 2022, per FiveThirtyEight, though both they and PSV Eindhoven, on 14 per cent, could barely see Ajax (65) in the distance.
It took the Dutch side longer to become favorites than it did Liverpool this term, though of course the latter has been influenced by the Gunners’ slow start combined with the defending champions collapsing.
Going into the World Cup break in 2022 - remember that? - Feyenoord were three points clear of Ajax, yet still 10 per cent behind in the FiveThirtyEight prediction stakes.
Slot’s team had a win-draw-loss record of 10-3-1 at that point. At the same stage this year, the current Liverpool side were two points better off, with one of the draws traded for a victory. As chance would have it, both teams even suffered their sole defeat in their opening 14 games just four days apart in the respective years. A 4-3 defeat at PSV presumably stung the Feyenoord boss less than a home loss to Nottingham Forest did this time around, even if the xG score of 2.8-1.3 suggested Eindhoven perhaps should have won by more.
With both teams drawing their first game back after the winter break in January 2023, Ajax slightly extended their stranglehold on the title hunt in the predictive race. That was as good as it got for Alfred Schreuder’s side, though. Match week 16 proved pivotal, as Feyenoord won 3-0 at Groningen while Ajax were fortunate to draw 0-0 at home to Twente. A five point lead in the Eredivisie table was accompanied by a 15 per cent advantage with FiveThirtyEight.
The momentum could have swiftly changed back. The following weekend, De Klassieker ended in a 1-1 draw. Ajax deserved to win based on xG (1.3 played 0.4), though after scoring first, it’s reasonable to assume Slot was content for Feyenoord to ensure they avoided defeat to keep their Eredivisie lead intact. It was quite a strike by Igor Paixão that day too.
That stalemate was followed by a win then two further draws for Feyenoord, leaving 14 games remaining. On the evening of February 5th 2023, they were two points clear of Slot’s former side AZ Alkmaar, with Ajax (at this stage now led by future Liverpool coach Johnny Heitinga) one further back.
It was only then that the league leaders put the pedal to the metal, winning 13 league games on the run. Only the first of them - a 2-1 victory over Heerenveen - was arguably a touch fortunate based on the numbers; across the stretch, Feyenoord were an average of 1.1 expected goals per game better than their opponents, with an advantage of at least of 0.6 in 12 of the matches.
Overcoming the pre-season odds is one thing, justifiably doing so is quite another. By the measure of expected goals, Feyenoord were worthy champions, albeit the margin for expected points was far closer than it was for the real thing. Slot’s men earned six fewer than their statistical performances theoretically deserved, with his Liverpool side of 2024/25 three points behind as we approach the midway point of the campaign.
Can history repeat itself for the Reds’ head coach? There are certainly similarities between this season and Feyenoord’s 2022/23 campaign. Liverpool must face Chelsea and Arsenal in their fourth and third last games of the season respectively, far closer to the finish line than was the case for Slot’s men with their primary rivals two years ago, though.
It helps to be able to burn rivals out of the race earlier than that if possible. Chelsea may have taken care of themselves in this respect already. But it may be even more beneficial to have a manager who has actually won a top flight title before.