Assessing Mohamed Salah's Unlikely Assist Total

Mohamed Salah has 16 assists in the 2024/25 Premier League. Only five men have got more in a single campaign. But has the Liverpool man been lucky?

The British were built for social media. There is something in the nation’s psyche that sees them happy to build someone up until they make it big, only to then tear them down. We love an underdog, underplaying the success of anyone fortunate enough to be so blessed, often by denigrating them with comparisons to superior talent.

Ahem. Sorry about that, Eden. Anyway, social media was designed for negativity so the British were designed for social media. Stirring in the tribal nature of football fandom gives you a powder keg of bitterness and stupidity, primed to explode.

Mohamed Salah is having one of the greatest individual campaigns seen in the modern era of football. Not just in England either, you can throw France, Germany, Italy and Spain into the mix. His total of 41 combined goals and assists is the 27th most a player has amassed in a single season in Europe’s big five leagues since the early 1990s. Maintaining his current rate of output across the final 11 matches would see Salah finish with 58 goal contributions.

It’s GOAT-level output, so what do people do? Pick holes in the numbers, as if the success Salah has enjoyed this season is thoroughly unmerited.

"He’s scored a few penalties.” So did 24 of the 26 men above him in the big league standings. Ciro Immobile is only there because he scored 14 spot kicks in one season. FOURTEEN.

“He’s over-achieved against his expected goals.” As it’s based on averages, a greatly above average player should exceed numerical expectation. Being flawless from the spot (in the league) has obviously helped Salah, with 24 big league players out performing their non-penalty xG by wider margins in 2024/25. If you want to talk unsustainable, check our Mateo Retegui’s 19 non-penalty goals from 9.7 expected if you want to talk unlikely goal scoring feats. Brits will love it if he comes to the Premier League and flops.

“He’s got an unfeasible assist total.” This is harder to refute, partly because it might be true, partly due to potential misunderstanding around expected assists. People are more accustomed to looking at under or over-performance with xG, plus a creator is always reliant upon their teammates’ finishing. Salah is currently 6.1 assists above his underlying numbers, a mark only topped seven times in the big leagues since 2017.

A-ha. Got ‘im. He’s a fraud, everyone. Pile on when you’re ready.

We could do that. Or, we could take a step back, dig into the numbers, see what they say. Maybe there’s a reason Salah has more assists for Liverpool than you might reasonably expect from his creative work in 2024/25. Yeah. Let’s check that.