How To Get More Goals From Luis Díaz
Luis Diaz scored the fewest goals of Liverpool's senior forwards in 2023/24. A look at his data reveals what Arne Slot needs to do to help Díaz score more.
When it comes to playing as a left forward for Liverpool, there is a clear benchmark. Sadio Mané occupied for the role for six seasons, delivering a total of 120 goals.
He got 13 in his first campaign, peaking with 26 in 2018/19. Most notably, the Senegal international reached 20 four times out of six, and finished on that average. While Mané’s assist rate wasn’t spectacular, at 6.3 per season, he provided seven-or-more on four occasions.
His successor Luis Díaz’s record isn’t so clearly defined. He arrived midway through one season then missed much of the following campaign through injury. But where Mané averaged 0.67 goals and assists per 90 minutes for the Reds, Díaz stands 0.16 behind him.
There have been grumbles among the Liverpool fanbase that the Colombian needs to deliver more end product, even if he only trails Mané by about one goal contribution every six full matches. Equally, the pro-rata gap was wider until Díaz delivered three goals plus an assist in the last two games, so how does Arne Slot get more out of the winger in the long term?
The 27-year-old is one of the elite ball carriers in the game. He makes things happen too; Díaz was ranked fifth in the 2023/24 Premier League for take-ons completed and shot creating actions, with no player above him on both of the charts. The former Porto man was eighth or better for carries that were progressive, into the final third or into the penalty area too, though of course there is plenty of overlap between those metrics.
In terms of carries of at least five metres which ended with the player taking a shot, only Alejandro Garnacho recorded more, per Opta Analyst. However, only one of Díaz’s 37 led to a goal, which he scored in a 4-1 win over Luton at Anfield (clip).
If we look at the records of vaguely similar players, we find Leon Bailey scored five times from just 15 shot-ending carries, while Bukayo Saka needed twice as many - still seven fewer than Díaz - to also bag a quintet of goals in such situations.
With his counter attack goal against Brentford (clip), Liverpool’s number seven has already equalled his 2023/24 tally of one strike following a five metre-plus carry. That was a clear run through the centre of the pitch, though, not a lengthy dribble up the touchline, the type of which we see regularly from the Colombia international.
For context, 67 players completed at least 1,000 ball carries of any length in the Premier League last season, with Díaz’s having the longest average distance of any of them. It is no surprise he is not at his most efficient after expending that much effort.
Consider now his goals at Old Trafford on Sunday. The second was hit first time, with his effort placed perfectly to beef up a good chance (0.32 expected goals) into a fantastic one (0.72 post-shot xG).
Last season, Díaz scored 13 goals, the fewest of the Reds’ five senior forwards. Disregarding the two headers plus the one from his shoulder at Kenilworth Road, leaves five of the remaining 10 that were dispatched immediately, with three requiring a single touch to steady himself before firing goalward.
Just two of the strikes needed more effort than that: the aforementioned Luton goal and a broadly similar one at Fulham in the Carabao Cup semi-final, for which he received the ball just outside the box before advancing into it. Not one of them came following a carry of any significant distance.
If we look at the conversion records for the Premier League’s top 10 men for carries leading to shots last season, we find they vary considerably. Seven of them also see a margin of at least four per cent between how well they convert those chances and shots which didn’t follow a carry of at least five metres.
Díaz’s shot conversion rate may not have been spectacular in 2023/24 no matter how you slice it, but he was 9.6 per cent better and above league average when not shooting after a carry. His Premier League shot map also helps emphasize the point.
Like most players, he does his best work from within the width of the goal frame, or at worst the six-yard box. Carrying the ball to those positions when often receiving the ball out wide on the left is, if not impossible, hard to do on a regular basis. While Liverpool undoubtedly need to utilise Díaz’s ball carrying prowess, they then need him to find a colleague rather than taking a shot himself. It is up to someone else - likely Mohamed Salah - to get the ball to the Colombian in the opposition danger zone.
News has broken today that the club is set to offer the Columbian a long-term contract, presumably on an improved salary. If the Reds want to get more goals for their investment, it seems clear what they need to do.
Great stuff, Andrew! Interesting insight on the shots from carries vs non-carry shots.
I think a switch to a 4-2-4 (at times) with Szoboszlai moving alongside the striker, which is more reminiscent of Liverpool's 2021-22 system which Díaz arrived into and started off so well in, could also help him.
Early days under Slot, though, so time will tell.