Jazz vs. Science: The Difference Between Liverpool and Arsenal

What might have been a huge match in the title race on Thursday will be nothing of the sort. How far apart are Arsenal and Liverpool?

Fortunes can swiftly turn. Liverpool were top of the Premier League entering the first weekend of October. They are 11th across the 14 matchweeks since, with one point fewer than Everton in that period (but keep that stat to yourself).

The Reds travel to Arsenal on Thursday. It would’ve been viewed as a hugely important match in the title race three months ago. With the teams now 14 points apart, it’s anything but.

Ideas for articles can be filed away, forgotten or become obsolete. Often all three. A strange imbalance crossed my mind in the summer. Arsenal were praised for their set play prowess after scoring 15 league goals from them in 2024/25 whereas little was made of Liverpool’s 14 via counter attacks being a new record for that type of goal. It was probably because there was no counter coach for camera operators to pick out.

The idea for the article (as per the title) was to view the two teams as jazz and science. Arsenal’s dead ball approach is very methodical, relying on angles, ball trajectories and outnumbering opponents at the back post. Liverpool had shown they could be more freeform, darting across the pitch, all over the place in a good way. Opening your mind like a John Coltrane solo.

The article was uncompleted, the comparison no longer as strong. The Gunners have scored so many set piece goals this season that they could feasibly top the Premier League record of 26, set by the Reds in 2013/14. Liverpool, meanwhile, have scored just three fast break goals and are playing like they can’t do anything quickly, least of all tear up field to put the ball in the net.

Arne Slot is looking for improvisation in a different sense this term. “To create chances against a low block you need pace, individual special moments to create an overload,” he said after his side drew 0-0 with Leeds. Recognisable patterns of play would be more reassuring yet the Liverpool head coach wants an attacker to deliver a slice of magic by conjuring something out of nothing. That said, the set play process at the club has recently come under harsh scrutiny too. The jazz and the science both need to heat up for the Reds.

The issue is almost inevitably going to come to a head, probably via a head, at the Emirates. If Arsenal win as expected - most likely 1-0 thanks to a corner - then Liverpool will be 17 points adrift. The top two in 2024/25 have been turned upside down with a chasm between them inside half a season.

Opta’s data suggests the margin between the two is not quite so seismic. Their expected points table has the Gunners 8.1 ahead of the Reds. That immediately shows that finishing has had an outsized influence, as it so often does.

But how far apart are the two teams, really? Will it take much for Liverpool to be performing at the same level as the league leaders once again? The underlying numbers can give Kopites a realistic kernel of optimism that all is not lost.

As well as expected points, Opta Analyst provides xG stats for and against. They are on different tables, though, so they make you work if you want to see the balance between the two. While you can get that on FBRef easily enough, Opta also has non-penalty and, crucially, set piece figures. The latter is obviously hugely relevant when it comes to separating Arsenal from Liverpool.

As the Gunners lead 3-1 on spot kicks in attack and 0-3 in defence, excluding penalties immediately brings the clubs’ xG figures closer together. That difference alone counts for almost four expected goals, in part delivered by the whims of officials. Here are the figures with penalties excluded.

Seeing Liverpool behind Aston Villa in the Premier League table when viewed through this lens is baffling. The xG gap between Arsenal and the Reds equates to 0.44 per game, split roughly 0.15-0.29 between attack and defence. The difference is roughly the same as one Opta-defined big chance each game, so not nothing, but it is not insurmountable either.

It can be almost entirely explained by dead ball situations. Arsenal have generated an extra 5.13 expected goals in attack while allowing 2.85 fewer at the back. Even the raw shot difference figures for set plays look damning for Aaron Briggs (and by extension Slot): dial +44 for the Gunners, -7 for the Reds.

As important as set plays are, the mark of a team is how well they control games in open play. Even though the proportion of goals that come via dead ball situations is higher than it’s been for a generation, it still only accounts for a little over a quarter. The below chart shows the open play xG for and against for the 2025/26 Premier League.

Why are we worrying about Arsenal when Manchester City have been the best team in open play? Even Pep Guardiola’s side have only been 0.11 per match better than the Reds, so the difference is negligible.

Liverpool’s margin to Arsenal is just 0.04 a game on average. The London side have been a one-in-25 shot better than the Reds per match. That’s all. Nothing.

Despite the stodgy football Slot has been deploying for over a third of the league campaign, his side has the second best attack. Being proficient at set plays obviously helps and can paper over deficiencies elsewhere but in open play Liverpool and the Gunners really aren’t that far apart at all

Arsenal have two distinct advantages. The most obvious is clearly set pieces. Mikel Arteta’s side have a lead of 22 over the Reds in the goal difference standings yet that shrinks to just one without goals from penalties, corners, free-kicks and throw-ins.

You can’t ignore those things, nor should we. The outcomes in general play being near-identical is encouraging given the supposed gulf between the teams though.

The Gunners other, far greater, advantage is that they have been building their side under their manager for far longer. They have a clear plan when Liverpool are scrabbling around for one. The Reds are too freeform as we begin 2026.

This didn’t used to be an issue at the club. A smart recruitment strategy fed excellent new players into a settled team that was generally very good at set plays. These are a few of my favourite things.

Another is when Liverpool are the best team in the land. If they can fix the set pieces, the data suggests that possibility is closer than we might think.