Jean-Philippe Mateta Might Make Sense for Liverpool

A data dig on the reported Liverpool transfer target shows ways in which he could fit the bill for Arne Slot

Liverpool have been linked with a £43m move for Crystal Palace forward Jean-Philippe Mateta. This is not the sort of deal the Reds would normally complete.

Granted, he is Premier League proven with over 250 senior career appearances. Mateta is also down to the final two years of his contract. Tick, tick, tick.

But maybe no fourth tick to make Will Smith go boom. The Frenchman recently turned 28, an age at which Liverpool are likelier to be thinking about selling rather than buying. The furthest Jürgen Klopp went for a player of that age or older was £20m (plus add-ons) for Thiago Alcântara. Mateta might stay fit for longer but he is no Thiago Alcântara.

Perhaps the idea should not be so readily dismissed. What was already proving a fascinating summer of squad renewal has been devastatingly affected by tragedy. Nobody would blame the club if they chose to veer from their standard strategy a little.

I wrote an article about Diogo Jota early last season which noted he was still involved in high value attacking moves despite having fewer touches. "It's obviously a bit different from Klopp where I maybe was useful out wide," was his explanation after the season opener at Ipswich. "If I stay in the middle, wait for those chances to come in and score them, I think that is what I do best."

The data in the article noted that Arne Slot’s Feyenoord striker Santiago Giménez had been very productive in terms of goals and assists per 90 minutes when having relatively few touches in 2023/24.

Do you know of another forward who is at the top end of that chart?

Mateta played in a higher standard league so it’s no shock he wasn’t quite so productive. He averaged just one touch more than Giménez every 900 minutes, their involvement level was effectively identical.

The Palace man completed more of his actions deeper on the pitch than his Feyenoord counterpart. As some of that season was spent playing under Roy Hodgson, the 6’ 3½” striker should be thankful he wasn’t stationed at centre-back.

Adding a little height to the Reds squad would be no bad thing in light of the transfer business Liverpool have recently conducted. There are numerical nuggets of far greater importance than stature which suggest a Reds move for Mateta could be plausible.

We can measure the impact of a player’s shooting beyond simple goals, using Hudl Statsbomb’s On-Ball Value shot data (via Fantasy Football Scout). Mateta has been one of the Premier League’s leading players for this metric per 100 touches across the last two seasons.

On one hand, his relatively low touch count may do him a favour in how this data is presented. On the other (as per the player column), he has the same level of shot OBV per 90 as Mohamed Salah, twice as much as the Reds’ next-man-in-line, Luis Díaz.

Further shot statistics go a long way towards explaining Mateta’s standing. For this, I’ve focussed on the Oliver Glasner era, as that feels closer to what Liverpool might do with him than anything he achieved under Hodgson.

There are 60 players who’ve fired at least 94 shots in Europe’s big five leagues since the Austrian took charge at Palace. Mateta is joint-second for non-penalty expected goals per shot (npxG/Sh), with his shooting accuracy (SoT%) the fifth best.

The combination of these facts hints strongly as to why the 2024 Olympic silver medallist has been 4.9 above his xG excluding penalties. Giving a player with a good record for putting shots on target a series of very high quality chances should see the rest take care of itself. Only four players in the sample have overachieved their non-penalty xG by more per shot.

Mateta would have to increase his pressing rate at Liverpool, though that’s true of just about any player who joins the club. While not at the level of the centre-forwards in 2024/25, he bettered the pressures per 90 average that the wide men delivered for Slot. That suggests he would be okay if playing for a more press-oriented side, or at the very least not miles off their pace.

It is also surprising that a player of Mateta’s height is so poor in the air. He has scored just three Premier League goals with his head, against 5.0 expected (per Understat). His aerial duel win rate of 41 per cent makes teammate Marc Guéhi look like a Goliath in a land of Davids, rather than the other way round.

Just as this negative feels unexpected, another positive the Eagles’ forward would potentially bring to Anfield seems unlikely at first glance. Jean-Philippe Mateta carries the ball further and more productively than you would have imagined.

Opta Analyst’s Premier League statistics page for 2024/25 contains carrying data for the 294 players who logged at least 900 minutes. The reported Liverpool target was ranked joint-ninth for the average distance of progressive carries. Among men who completed at least as many as he did, Mateta moved up to joint-fifth.

At 5.2 per 90, his rate for completing carries of at least five metres wasn’t huge. What a player does with them matters more. Almost a sixth of the carries (16.4 per 100) led to Mateta either taking a shot or creating a chance once he’d finished dribbling, again the fifth best average in the division.

There is an interesting parallel at play. Darwin Núñez had an identically low carry rate while being just 0.8 per 100 behind Mateta for the proportion of them which resulted in a goal scoring opportunity. The Reds’ number nine has also just had his best season in England for npxG/Sh, though he remained a few percentage points below the Palace striker on this metric.

But Darwin still can’t find the net often enough. Mateta can.

Liverpool may be willing to accept a slightly older stop gap until their first choice - *cough* Isak - becomes available. Assuming Núñez leaves, they could do a lot worse when it comes to finding a replacement with a similar skillset.

Perhaps there are enough ticks against Mateta’s name after all.