Liverpool are not achieving Arne Slot's Set Piece Balance

Liverpool have been poor from set plays this season. This is strange when dead ball situations are of great importance to head coach Arne Slot.

Liverpool’s mild stumbles in pursuit of the Premier League title continued at Villa Park on Wednesday. They lead, they trailed, they drew. They came, they saw, they very much did not conquer.

Speaking to the BBC after the game, head coach Arne Slot was asked if the Reds had failed to match their usual high standards at both ends of the pitch. “Yes, I did feel that we defended really well because I can’t come up with a lot of their chances,” he replied.

“The only thing I’m not happy with is: if you play a big game, an away game at [Aston] Villa, that’s a difficult one and you need to have a neutral set piece balance or a positive one, but we conceded one, didn’t score one. Then it’s hard. But still we were able to get a result because we scored two very good goals.”

José Mourinho has a seven-point plan for winning big matches, Slot wants a positive set piece balance in them. While all managers want that in every game, Liverpool are on track to post a negative goal difference from set plays in the Premier League for the first time in a decade. If dead ball situations are of particular importance to the Reds’ boss, his team are underwhelming him.

Set plays were certainly a potent outlet for Slot’s Feyenoord side. Across his three seasons in Rotterdam they scored 30 goals more than they conceded in the Eredivisie in this manner, with a positive goal difference of at least seven each year. With such a strong record, it is surprising this is one - the only? - area in which the Reds have declined since Slot replaced Jürgen Klopp.

Not being able to appoint Feyenoord’s set piece coach Etiënne Reijnen due to work permit issues obviously hasn’t helped. Even so, Slot’s comments about wanting a positive set play balance make it worth investigating how frequently Liverpool have enjoyed that over the years and whether it has been on the cards that often in 2024/25.

As you would expect from a team that scored an average of 8.2 set play goals more than they conceded per league season across the last half decade, the Reds won more set piece balances than they lost. In terms of Slot’s big game criteria, it was notable in 2019/20 that Arsenal, Chelsea (twice, both times by two) and Manchester United were defeated in this sense, the latter in the famous 2-0 victory which spurred the Kop to sing “we’re gonna win the league.”

Balance losses have contributed to many memorable 2-2 draws away from home for many years, not just at Parks Goodison and Villa in the previous two weeks. It also occurred at Everton in 2020/21, then Chelsea and Manchester City the following year. There were two instances of this last season - at Brighton and West Ham - which contributed to Slot inheriting a side which only won four more set piece balances than it lost in the Premier League.

As much as the Liverpool boss wants this balance to be positive, the greater concern is what the negative examples have cost. The only goal the Reds have conceded from a corner this season occurred in the final minute of the home game with Ipswich. If there’s an acceptable time to be beaten on set play goals, it’s when you’re 4-0 up with only minutes left to play.

It has taken an average of 29 corners to score from one in the Premier League since the summer of 2017. Liverpool’s opponents have amassed 104 for that one Jacob Greaves goal so far this term. There have only been six better defensive corner per goal rates across the last six seasons, with the Reds of 2022/23 the only side to register a record of #DIV/0! by not conceding at all.

There is no easy way to do a similar comparison for free-kicks, as they are not all aiming to create chances thanks to taking place across the pitch. However, it is this brand of set piece which has proved very costly for Slot’s Liverpool.

Fabian Schär’s last minute equaliser at St. James’ Park has been the most decidedly impactful of the four. The other three were also conceded in away draws, though, with the 2-2 tie at Arsenal - with Mikel Merino putting the Gunners 2-1 up - preceding the recent examples against Everton (for 1-0 to the Blues) and Villa (1-1).

The six set play goals Liverpool have conceded in the 2024/25 Premier League are completed by Adam Armstrong at Southampton. As it was a rebound from a penalty which he missed, it shouldn’t really count, but it has to be classified somehow.

The outcome of finishing versus goalkeeping will always determine if a team leaves a match with a positive set piece balance or not. We can look at expected goals to get at hint at whether the Reds have deserved to achieve this that often this term. It can only be a hint as the xG totals are low in almost every game.

Slot’s Feyenoord scored an average of 0.43 set play goals per Eredivisie game during his tenure. As we can’t call upon their expected goal information, we can use that as a benchmark.

Liverpool have hit this level in eight of their 41 matches for their new gaffer, with six occurring in the Premier League. In defence, Feyenoord conceded 0.14 goals from set pieces per league game under Slot; although this is a much harder level to maintain, the Reds have held their opponents to no more than that mark 15 times in all competitions.

Despite the balance of these outcomes, Liverpool are only averaging 0.02 xG per match more than their opponents from dead-ball situations this season. In the league alone, they are the same margin behind opposing teams.

The overall advantage effectively rests on the Carabao Cup thumping of Tottenham Hotspur. The Reds didn’t concede a set play chance (or much of anything against a spineless Spurs) yet put 1.43 xG on the board from corners and free-kicks. Captain Virgil van Dijk converted one of the former to seal passage to Wembley. Ignoring that game would mean Liverpool had generated a lower xG total from set pieces than their opponents in the Slot era, by 9.0 to 9.4.

In terms of winning or losing the set piece balance, the score is 20-20, with a draw occurring at St Mary’s Stadium in the League Cup. It is clear from the goal tallies that the Reds are not doing enough to meet their head coach’s set play requirements. The underlying data only accentuates that viewpoint.