Liverpool FC: Breaking Good under Arne Slot
Liverpool had five counter attacking shots in their win over Aston Villa. The Reds were excellent on the break under Jürgen Klopp. They may be better now.
Liverpool are enjoying the best of both worlds. They lead the Premier League by five points while also topping the Champions League Group Phase League Table League, or however it’s clumsily titled.
This is not the only sense in which the Reds of 2024/25 are having their cake and eating it. Their style of play is a delicious blend of the styles of Arne Slot and Jürgen Klopp. The new head coach has tightened the structure of the side while retaining the razor-sharp attacking instincts of his predecessor.
“I inherited a team that did really well last season and for so many seasons before, so there was not a reason to change lots of things, just keep the things they do really well.”
Never has this been more apparent than in the 2-0 win over Aston Villa at Anfield on Saturday. Unai Emery’s side mustered just 0.48 expected goals in open play, almost doubling that (0.90) from set pieces. As Villa top the Premier League for proportion of xG from dead ball situations, this sort of attacking outcome isn’t exclusive to Liverpool. The Reds still restricted them to roughly half of their normal open play expected goals though.
This had a noticeable benefit in attack, with Liverpool recording five shots which were classified as counter attacks (also known as ‘fast breaks’). The quintet accounted for their three highest value chances, 70 per cent of the xG.
There is no easy way to search for comparable examples, but my database shows the Reds’ previous record from recent years was four such shots; in the 3-0 win at Leeds in which Harvey Elliott suffered a bad injury and the 2022 victory over Manchester City featuring Alisson Becker assisting Mohamed Salah for the only goal.
The Egyptian was heavily involved in this sense against Villa too; no surprise when he’s scored 24 of Liverpool’s last 55 counter goals in the league, with about as many shots as the next four men in the standings combined. He hasn’t been the team’s most frequent creator or shooter of fast break chances in 2024/25 though.
With counter attacks having a subjective definition1, The Reds’ new match high (of which I am aware) may be somewhat in the eye of the beholder. In 2023/24, the Premier League saw over 100 more shots deemed to be the result of fast breaks than in any of the preceding 12 campaigns, a rise of 26 per cent on the previous high point. At the current rate it will rise by over 100 again this season, suggesting the previously strict classification may have been relaxed.
No matter the discrepancies, the main positive for Liverpool is that the balance of counter attack shots has tilted further in their favour. The for and against totals are 26-10 this term when they were 62-48 in the final Klopp campaign. The Reds were in debit for fast break goal attempts by five in 2022/23, so the trend is undoubtedly positive.
And right now, it is sky rocketing. Across the first eight games this season, the counter shot stats read 11 for and seven against; for the last nine matches, those figures are 15 and three respectively. There are still things to aim towards, with Crystal Palace and Brighton (in the league) having hit the Reds on the break before Liverpool had done so in kind. But as Slot’s men dominate possession, the threat of being countered will never be entirely eradicated.
Remarkably, just one of the opposition counter attacks this season has led to a goal, in part thanks to Alisson and Caoimhín Kelleher each saving two on-target efforts apiece. Whisper it, especially around Arne, but the only goal conceded settled the match with Nottingham Forest. It is their only counter strike of the league campaign, making Slot’s wounds from the game saltier still.
If that offers a cautionary tale of what can go wrong, here’s another. Liverpool were particularly potent with counter shots at this time last year. Across their five games in October 2023, the Reds scored seven goals on the break, registering at least one in every match.
Between the 4-1 win over Luton Town in February and the end of the campaign, Liverpool missed all 32 counter attacking shots they took. You can probably recall some very promising breaks which didn’t even end in an effort on goal too.
The drought included a trio of wasted shots on the break in both the 2-2 draw at Old Trafford and the home loss to Crystal Palace, a pair of results which steered the title chase into choppy, ultimately fatal, waters.
Slot’s Reds could be set for a repeat, if not quite such a brutally bad spell. In similar fashion to last year, they have scored five fast break goals across the last five games. Big goals too; an equaliser at Arsenal, a winner against Brighton, both goals versus Villa.
A lot will depend on who is taking the shot. Leaving aside the sample size discrepancies, Liverpool fans will hope their counter attacks end in shots for Diogo Jota (who has a 40 per cent conversion rate for them in the league) or Salah (30.8), rather than Cody Gakpo (14.3), Luis Díaz (10.0) or Darwin Núñez (8.0).
Yet so far this season it is the Uruguayan who has taken shots on the break most frequently. What was it I said about the conversion rate potentially tailing off?
With an average of 1.5 counter attack shots per league game, Liverpool are only behind Empoli and RB Leipzig (both 1.6) across England, France, Germany, Italy and Spain. Slot said that he wanted the Reds to “keep the things they do really well.” He has perhaps made one of their greatest strengths stronger still.
“an attempt created after the defensive quickly turn defence into attack winning the ball in their own half (counter attack)”