Liverpool, Paris Saint-Germain and A Tale of Quite Good Chances

Liverpool and Paris Saint-Germain might be the two best teams in the world. Their Champions League tie threw up an interesting statistic.

History was not on the side of Paris Saint-Germain. Liverpool had won 38 European first legs on the road prior to last week, finishing the job at Anfield every single time.

(There was also a tie against RB Leipzig during the pandemic in which both legs were on neutral territory, with the Reds winning the designated away leg first).

The visitors had form for upsetting the odds though. They lost at home to Barcelona last season before rescuing the tie with a 4-1 win in Spain. While data is limited since the abolition of away goals in 2021, this was the only instance from the six examples in the Champions League of a team losing a first leg at home by a single goal before recovering to qualify.

There’s another upset in the books now, after PSG beat Liverpool on penalties 4-1 following a 1-0 victory in normal time. Not that the score line of a shootout matters, but this was the Reds’ heaviest defeat in one, to go with the ending of the flawless record mentioned above.

As you would expect with home advantage, Arne Slot’s side played much better than they had in the first leg. They topped their shot total from the Parc des Princes within 10 minutes on Tuesday evening. As much as they undoubtedly had the chances to potentially win the tie, the Reds struggled to create really good opportunities. Their performance level from Paris rose significantly; the problem for Liverpool was that there was little in the way of a dip from the Ligue 1 side.

Rather than review the match in depth - having already done that for The Tomkins Times - it feels worth taking a look at the tie as a whole from the perspective of chance quality. The Reds were outshot to the tune of 27 efforts across the 210 minutes of play, a level of dominance the club will so rarely have experienced. The value of those goal attempts is worth a much closer look.