Red Light Spells Danger for Manchester City
Liverpool have created lots of chances in the penalty box danger zone in the Premier League this season. Manchester City have more but who has been better?
Last week, we dug into Liverpool’s defending of their danger zone, the central section of the penalty area covered by the width of the six-yard box. It is now time to look at the other end of the pitch.
This will be more fun. At the back, you have the statistics with a list of players who were unlikely to score and are unlikely to cross your mind until the Reds face their team again. Jacob Greaves! Dean Huijsen! Joshua Zirkzee!
Going forward, there’s bigger sample sizes by player and creative combinations to consider. The starting point for the investigation is a recent post by CIES Football Observatory, which contained the danger zone data.
For shots conceded, Liverpool lead the Premier League so far this season. In attack, while the Reds are higher in the standings for Europe’s big five leagues than they were for defence, they are below Manchester City (obviously) and Tottenham (sorry, what?) in England.
With all due disrespect to Spurs, Arne Slot will only be concerned about their attack twice a year. A comparison between his side and City will be of far greater interest.
As will a breakdown of which Liverpool players have contributed directly to the most shots from within the danger zone. Least spoiling spoiler alert of all time: Mohamed Salah is top. The pro-rata standings throw up a few interesting quirks though.
Unlike with the defensive numbers, the offensive total from CIES matches my research from looking at the shot maps. The most striking thing when compiling the data was the heavy weighting towards the second halves of matches.
In the opening 45 minutes of league games this term, Liverpool have mustered 22 shots in opposition danger zones; they have had 24 in the first 15 minutes after the interval alone. The expected goals tallied in this period (6.47) isn’t wildly adrift of the sum total conceded in 2024/25 (8.43) either.
We grew accustomed to seeing the Reds roar back after a half time orange under Jürgen Klopp. Yet their xG per match between minutes 46 and 60 from all shots this season is the highest of any of the club’s quarter-hour spells since the start of 2014/15.
It may not last, but at the moment the 15 minutes following the interval is Liverpool’s most productive quarter-hour period from a sample of 66 stretching back over a decade. Every match this season has seen the Reds fire off at least one danger zone shot in this time frame, with the average value of the 24 efforts valued at a whopping 0.27 expected goals (per Understat).
Another tick for the Liverpool of 2024/25 is that the vast majority of their danger zone chances have been crafted in open play. Goals at Molineux and the Emirates have shown the impact good set pieces can have, but regular play accounts for 73 per cent of the Reds’ shots in the danger zone, 85 per cent of the xG mustered.
The player data throws up some interesting notes. It is not a surprise that Trent Alexander-Arnold has been the leading creator, though it’s worth noting that his expected assists per 90 minutes is no better than in any of the previous three seasons. With only seven of the chances he has set up being taken from outside the danger zone, it means the average xG value of the opportunities provided by the 26-year-old is higher than in all-but-one previous league campaign. Efficiency rules.
Another man worthy of a mention is Dominik Szoboszlai. Recently criticised in these pages for a lack of on-ball output, he is the only player other than Salah to record at least six danger zone contributions in both the chances created and shots columns. What, as ever, do I know?
On a per 90 basis, the Hungarian (1.6) is delivering more than both Cody Gakpo and Darwin Núñez (1.3). Ahead of all three thanks to his danger zone shots alone is Diogo Jota (1.4), the penalty box predator supreme. The Liverpool number 20 is so productive partly as he has linked up well with Alexander-Arnold. Three of the four chances they have fashioned as a duo have been worth at least 0.4 expected goals.
Salah is inevitably involved in many of the top pairings. His on-field relationship with Núñez justified keeping the erratic Uruguayan in the side in the past. Despite relatively limited shared playing time under Slot, it’s encouraging to see them continuing to combine well in the area of the pitch which matters most.
As mentioned above, a comparison with City is always worthwhile. They have generated more danger zone shots, as we already know. But as with the defensive numbers, adding chance quality and focussing on open play shines the Reds in a favourable light.
Erling Haaland has taken 40 of City’s 94 shots when nobody else has more than 10. No surprise there. He has also scored eight of the club’s 12 goals from the danger zone, another stunningly predictable development. Nobody else has scored an open play goal for City from the centre of the box this season.
The rest of Pep Guardiola’s squad have combined to take 33 fruitless shots from the danger zone in 2024/25. Perhaps typing this wills Rico Lewis to score at Anfield in a couple of weeks’ time. Or perhaps there’s no such thing as a jinx.
Who ever is taking the shots in open play doesn’t matter. Liverpool have the better spread around their squad, City have the leading individual and both have elite attacking units. What’s important is the total of chances allowed at each end of the field.
Advantage to the Reds in defence, advantage to Liverpool in attack. And imagine if Haaland was to suffer a serious injury. Regardless of that scenario, Slot’s men have a clear edge. Getting Jota back should help them push it further.