Liverpool vs. THE MOST DANGEROUS LEAD IN FOOTBALL™

Liverpool haven't scored when 2-0 up this season, conceding four goals along the way. Is this a serious problem for Arne Slot or a fuss about nothing?

It has long been said that 2-0 is the most dangerous lead in football. You think you’ve won, then ease off only to come unstuck.

There are many clichés in football - in England, especially - but how many of them have their own Wikipedia page? The idea that teams regularly fail to win after going 2-0 up persists, despite being disproved numerous times.

In the Premier League, the win percentage from this standpoint was 89.6 per cent up to April 2020. It won’t have shifted much in the half decade since.

Liverpool will shift the figure singlehandedly this season if they’re not careful. Their goal difference from their time spent at 2-0 is -4, thanks to failing to score while conceding to Bournemouth, Newcastle, Atlético Madrid and Everton. The first three also scored again to equalise, only to later lose. No points have been lost after having a two-goal lead, more through luck than judgment.

Some of the luck could be argued to have been bad for Liverpool. Atléti scored twice with deflected shots, with a potential offside also in play for their first. Their second goal came via a 0.09 expected goals chance, which was 0.01 above Idrissa Gana Gueye’s strike last weekend.

The other two goals which made games 2-1 were at least Opta-defined big chances, albeit Bruno Guimarães’s header was only worth 0.17 xG. The Reds’ ‘first team’ have allowed a single clear-cut chance in the four matches since William Osula equalised at St. James Park. That’s a huge positive, not least as they didn’t have more than one clean sheet of this nature in any four game sequence last term.

The narrative that Liverpool can’t defend 2-0 leads will rumble on until they do. They’d almost be better off coming from behind to give the media something different to discuss. In the meantime, it’s worth digging into their expected goals by game state as there is a clear kernel of concern.