Liverpool's Big Big Chance Hole
Just when you thought the statistical oddities of Liverpool's 2025/26 season had dried up, here comes another.
As the ball came back to Giorgi Mamardashvili, he was closer to the centre circle than his penalty area. With an opponent closing in, he had to launch the ball forward.
It would have been executed more in hope than in expectation. The ball reached a defender, maybe 10 yards in front of his penalty box. Under no pressure, he headed it back to his goalkeeper.
Hang on a second. Who’s this appearing out of the shadow that covers half of the pitch, like a miscreant emerging from a dark alley? It’s Milos Kerkez, on hand to hit the ball first time over the stranded goalkeeper into an unguarded Brighton net. 1-1, game on.
It should have been but was not. The Hungarian left-back’s instinctive brilliance was the only Opta-defined big chance Liverpool had in their 2-1 loss at the Amex Stadium last weekend. No shot they created thereafter was worth more than 0.08 expected goals, falling shy of even the average quality mark of 0.10.
The Reds’ standard for producing big chances depends on the context you apply. Their total of 82 in the Premier League is only seven shy of Arsenal, 13 behind joint-leaders Chelsea and Manchester City. They’ve not been a chasm adrift of the best in class across 31 matches.
Their current rate per game suggests Liverpool will finish with 101. That looks less impressive once you realise they had at least 125 in each of the last four seasons. More worryingly for Arne Slot, their peak for this period was 150 in his first campaign. Essentially a third of that tally has vanished one year on.
The Kerkez Opportunity is not only a good name for a Frederick Forsyth novel, it’s also emblematic of a problem that has dogged the Reds all season. Their conversion rate is poor but the former Bournemouth defender was able to brilliantly put his opportunity away. It’s another aspect of big chance shooting that has been downright odd for Liverpool this season.
