Liverpool's Leading Problem
Most top teams head in one direction when ahead. Liverpool don't and it's a major issue.
Liverpool’s 2025/26 season continues to be very strange on the data front. They managed to generate 1.9 expected goals in their 0-0 draw with Leeds despite rarely looking close to scoring. The spreadsheet says the Reds deserved to win when it was far less clear-cut on the eye test.
There are other concerning outliers. Liverpool’s five worst league or European matches for expected goal difference include their wins at Newcastle and Tottenham, both of whom received a first half red card. Neither side should’ve got close to a positive result yet both had realistic hopes of a point.
A recent graph by the excellent @markrstats highlights the issue. It compares Liverpool with other (mostly big) clubs around Europe in terms of their xG when level or leading. The majority of them create less when in front in order to massively reduce the amount of chances they concede. Not the Reds, who get worse at both ends of the pitch.
You can see that Liverpool are only a touch above neutral when drawing, then have an xG per 90 minutes figure of somewhere around -0.5 when they are leading. Neither is ideal but the latter shows why they often struggle to see out games.
Things get odder still if we break the data down between leading by one goal or having a margin of two, using Understat data. Liverpool’s expected goal difference in their model when up a goal is actually decent enough. It’s what occurs when they go further ahead that is beyond concerning. Arne Slot’s in-tray contains yet another problem to sort out.
