Liverpool's Most Creative Duo Outdoing De Bruyne and Haaland

Liverpool's tactical tweaks under Arne Slot mean their most potent Premier League combinations have changed since the end of the Jürgen Klopp era

Seven minutes was all it took. Liverpool’s most creative combination in the 2024/25 Premier League, at least by the hugely simplistic outcome-driven measure of assists, is Mohamed Salah to Luis Díaz, with two goals. Only three pairings across the division have more.

This highpoint in Egyptian-Colombian relations occurred entirely between the 35th and 42nd minutes of the Reds’ 3-0 win at Manchester United. Salah’s first assist for Díaz was against the same opponent, in 2022, with the only other one at Stamford Bridge in the opening match of last season. It’s a combo built for big games.

Yet despite sharing the pitch for 552 minutes in all competitions, those two chances are the only ones fashioned by Liverpool’s number 11 for their number seven in the Arne Slot era. If you’re not going to link up often, at least make it iconic.

Remarkably, the last of the two chances Díaz has set up for Salah in 2024/25 also became a goal, against Brentford. It’s a hit rate which cannot possibly be sustained. Four chances fashioned as a pairing isn’t huge either; prior to Liverpool’s 2-1 win over Chelsea, Opta noted that Cole Palmer and Noni Madueke led the standings for this season with 15 chances created as a duo.

There was no context provided for the expected goals the pair have generated together. FBRef’s goal data shows that three of the four that have been converted were worth at most 0.07 xG, so their total may not be huge. According to a Soccerment tweet from June, the top combination in Europe’s top five leagues last season for expected assists per 90 minutes was Kevin De Bruyne to Erling Haaland, on 0.25.

Liverpool had three pairings on that chart, all of which included Darwin Núñez. However, the Uruguayan hasn’t featured much this term. He has only set up or taken five shots in total in the league, even having matches in which he didn’t fire off a single goal attempt, an unthinkable scenario prior to 2024/25.

It was inevitable that partnerships would evolve from the Jürgen Klopp era, with Slot tweaking both the formation and the way in which the team plays. With Núñez contributing less while the Díaz/Salah show flickers brightly in bursts, which duo has generated the most chances or expected goals for the club this season? The pair in question may even be capable of matching De Bruyne and Haaland.

The findings in this study are based on Understat’s data. Their model is not widely loved, but it also stretches back to 2014 unlike others, giving it a comparative value which isn’t available elsewhere. Who can possibly hope to analyse Liverpool properly without knowledge of Fabio Borini’s expected goals or Lazar Markovic’s xGChain per 90?

The small sample sizes in play mean variations can occur easily, almost at random. The Reds have 12 combinations that have already generated more league chances than they did in the entirety of 2023/24.

There’s a few pairings which may prove interesting. Andy Robertson has set up Ibrahima Konaté twice from corners this season having failed to once in 605 minutes together last term. Liverpool have gone from delivering 72 per cent of their crossed corners out-swinging across the last five years to sending 79 per cent inward this season. Doing so may have revived a previously dormant set piece combination.

Another creative link which is showing promise flows from Cody Gakpo to Dominik Szoboszlai. The latter’s new position in the centre of what might be called the attacking midfield trio helps explain why he has received three key passes from the Dutchman after benefiting from just one last season. Leaving aside Szoboszlai’s point-blank effort at Molineux, his next two highest value chances under Slot have been fashioned by Gakpo.

Last season, Liverpool had 35 pairings that hooked up for at least five Premier League chances. The duo of Trent Alexander-Arnold and Diogo Jota fell one shy of inclusion in that arbitrary group. This term, they have already combined for six shots to lead the team standings.

With the time they have spent on the pitch together, the 1.57 expected goals they have mustered - 9.1 per cent of the team’s non-penalty total - equates to 0.29 per 90 minutes. The Soccerment data pictured above uses a different model, but with 0.25 De Bruyne and Haaland topped the tables across England, France, Germany, Italy and Spain last season.

Despite this potency, it hasn’t led to any goals, with Jota seeing half of the shots blocked and the other three go off target. The bulk of the xG has come from a trio of shots that all rated at 0.40 expected goals or more, above average even for Opta-defined big chances. These are also second to fourth in Alexander-Arnold’s list of most valuable key passes this season, a campaign in which he has a fractionally higher expected assists per 90 average than ever before.

This recent hot spell means that across their shared career, Alexander-Arnold is producing as much xG per 90 for Jota as Roberto Firmino did for Salah (notwithstanding a third decimal place advantage to the latter pair).

The Reds have had no better combination with as large a sample size across the last seven seasons. Even if they cool off as is likely when the Portuguese forward returns, Jota will be adding his name to the list of Liverpool supporters who want Alexander-Arnold to sign a new contract as soon as possible.