One-nil to the Liverpool, One-nil
Liverpool beat Crystal Palace 1-0 after scoring in just the ninth minute. A comparison with Arsenal and Manchester City bodes well for defending similar leads.
Dan Morgan: “I genuinely cannot remember… the last time we scored in the first 10 [minutes] and won a game 1-0, so if anyone knows what game that might be…”
Sean Rogers: “Andrew Beasley, there’s a gauntlet.”
When you’re a statto of long standing - hardest game in the world, 14 years, man and older man - it’s always fun to receive a challenge. During a podcast discussion about Liverpool’s last match, a narrow victory at Crystal Palace, it was asked when the Reds last scored so early in a game which they went on to win 1-0.
The goal log data on FBRef makes it an easy poser to answer. Diogo Jota’s strike was the earliest 1-0 winner in a Premier League game this season, for one thing. In terms of Liverpool specifically, it’s a question which in a sense has two valid answers, over seven years apart.
In April, the Reds beat Atalanta by the narrowest of score lines thanks to a Mohamed Salah penalty in the seventh minute. By virtue of their 3-0 win at Anfield in the first leg, Gian Piero Gasperini’s did not need to seek an equaliser as much as they needed to not concede again. While it was a 1-0 win with an early goal, it was one which suited the beaten side more than the victors.
For an eligible match which actually felt like Liverpool won, we must look back to New Years Eve during Jürgen Klopp’s first full season in charge. Manchester City were the visitors, Gini Wijnaldum headed home an Adam Lallana cross in the eighth minute and the scoring was completed for 2016. Happy new year, Reds. You’ll sign a lad called Salah in about six months time, it’ll be great.
Victories of this nature are often hard earned, not taken. Liverpool would not score this early in a game and shut up shop for the day by design. Well, possibly under Roy Hodgson, but that was thankfully just a weird six month fever dream.
A team scoring exactly one goal has won 26.5 per cent of the time in the English top flight since the late 1980s. Scoring twice sees the success rate more than double to 63.3 per cent. Bear in mind too that these are league-wide averages; for Liverpool, those numbers are 51.6 and 83.7 respectively.
At Selhurst Park on the Saturday before last, Arne Slot’s men should have scored more than once. They squandered three Opta-defined big chances, which gave Palace hope of recovery. Yet despite having 81 minutes with home advantage and a fresher squad, the Eagles summoned little in way of a response to Jota’s opener. Palace generated just 0.6 expected goals.
It was a perfect game to illustrate the defensive difference between the Reds of Slot and Klopp. This season, Liverpool have conceded 9.8 shots per 90 minutes when leading by one goal in the league, essentially the same as the 9.7 and 9.5 in the previous two campaigns.
But never mind the volume, feel the quality. The shots conceded when one goal ahead have been worth an average of 0.08 expected goals; this figure was 0.12 last season and 0.16 in 2022/23. Even Klopp’s 90+ point teams had a figure of 0.10 here.
The obvious points of comparison are Arsenal and Manchester City. With Liverpool making up a trio, no other club has finished in the top two in the last three seasons and nor are they likely to this term. Here are their best seasons under Mikel Arteta, Pep Guardiola and Klopp or Slot sorted by the xG per 90 they conceded when one goal up.
The three teams above the current day Reds finished with 98, 92 and 93 points respectively. Just below Slot’s side are City’s centurions. When they retained that title in 2018/19, three of their final five wins were by 1-0 scorelines. In one, against Tottenham, they scored in the fifth minute.
Like any statistic, xG allowed when a goal ahead isn’t decisive. The near presence of Guardiola’s first City team and an Arsenal side which finished fifth in 2021/22 slightly below 2024/25 Liverpool illustrates that firmly enough.
There’s a blindingly obvious sound logic here, though. A team which doesn’t give up much when leading is going to win a lot of football matches, especially when the best goalkeeper in the world is on hand (when fit) to deal with mostly low-value shots. Again, look at the final column in the above table; Slot’s men are allowing gruel for opposition chances. Their attack in this game state is very healthy too.
We had to wait almost eight years for Liverpool to score in the first 10 minutes of a Premier League match which they won 1-0. With this data behind them, it could easily happen again this season.
The Day Today last week, The Fast Show this week - I like it! 😀👍