Question Time, Episode One
Don't panic, there isn't anyone from Reform here. Just me answering questions on Arsenal, the Ekitike & Isak partnership and the success of Liverpool's academy
There is an open message thread in the chat section of the newsletter for anyone to submit a question. You can view and add it to here.
One query regarding injuries, rotation and substitutes was answered recently. Now it’s time to tackle a few more questions.
“Have there been any signs of the ‘next’ idea in football yet? Really hoping the Arsenal way doesn’t become the Premier League blueprint for the next few seasons...”
It’s a great time to consider this question. Arsenal lost their last match 2-1 at home to Bournemouth. Bookmakers had given them just shy of a two-in-three likelihood of winning the game beforehand.
And they deserved a victory, at least according to the expected goal data. The Gunners missed four Opta-defined big chances. It can happen.
But three of them were headers, which are hard to convert. The same number came through set piece situations, the goose Mikel Arteta hopes will lay the golden egg of the Premier League title.
His side laid an egg in a different way on Saturday. Arsenal mustered 0.18 expected goals in open play with 52.4 per cent possession in a must-win home match against a mid-table side. Liverpool essentially matched that (0.17) with 26 per cent possession in their widely-panned performance in Paris versus the European champions. Adam Bate noted earlier this week for Sky that it isn’t especially strange for Arsenal to be so blunt in open play:
The Gunners need more than a goal per game over the final six matches to equal Liverpool’s record tally of 26 set piece goals, set in 2013/14. Whether they manage that or not, they won’t get 25 more in open play to match Brendan Rodgers’ Reds in that regard.
A team could be the most potent set play side ever seen, they’d still need probably double that amount of goals elsewhere. Even when set pieces are accounting for their highest percentage of Premier League goals since 2010/11, it’s still only roughly a quarter of the total.
This is a long winded way to say I don’t think Arsenal’s strategy will definitively become the Premier League blueprint for years ahead. Even if they win the title, this way of playing is certainly not flawless.
We’ve seen extreme examples of what can happen. Chelsea’s 2-1 defeat at the Emirates saw all three goals come via corner scrums. It was an utterly depressing match between two of England’s Champions League representatives. The 22 starters averaged around £130k per week each in salary; they should be capable of so much more.
I do wonder if high profile sludge-fests like this are carrying a little too much weight when shaping the view of the quality and/or approach in the Premier League at present.
If Arsenal win the title, as still looks likely, their fans won’t care how they played. Nor should they. Equally, Arteta’s methods will be questioned, panned and dismissed if the Gunners finish second for a fourth consecutive season. Even they might have to move beyond dourball before long, especially if the natives become mutinous.
As for what comes next? The leading eight players for open play expected assists in the Premier League include Bruno Fernandes, Rayan Cherki, Enzo Fernandez (who are the top trio), Adam Wharton and Florian Wirtz. It’d be nice to think that creative midfielders/number 10s can thrive. The football would be more watchable, for starters.
“I would love to know from a data-based perspective how Isak & Ekitike would fare in a two-man strikeforce.”
