Real Madrid Played Liverpool Bingo And Got A Full House
Sigh
In purely statistical terms, Liverpool’s 5-2 loss to Real Madrid was about as close to a dead heat as you’re going to get. FBRef listed the expected goal score as 1.9 to 1.7, both teams had nine shots and they even had the same total in regular open play (six).
Where the Reds failed was having several poor moments against the ultimate ‘moments’ team in the history of the competition. Madrid weren’t particularly better than Liverpool, they just played better at the most crucial points in the match. A review of their five goals shows how they ticked off every square on the Liverpool bingo card for 2022/23.
VinÃcius Júnior, 21’
I took a deep dive into the maths of this goal in an article for the Echo this week, so won’t say much here. The gist: he took a very low xG value chance and turned into a superb one through finishing and to an extent the Reds have yet to manage this season.
VinÃcius Júnior, 36’
While they could undoubtedly do better, Liverpool haven’t been too bad for Opta-defined defensive errors in 2022/23. Only twice in Jürgen Klopp’s seven previous Premier League campaigns have they committed fewer per game, and the title winning season was not one of the past instances.
But those that have led to goals this term have been costly. The four in the league include the opening goal of defeats to Leeds and Brighton, as well as a late equaliser for the latter at Anfield. Only Ibrahima Konaté’s mistake at Brentford didn’t change much (as it was already 2-1) but it certainly extinguished any faint hopes of a comeback. VinÃcius Júnior’s fortunate goal, by contrast, secured one for Real.
Éder Militão, 47’
As it is for errors, so it is for set plays. Only West Ham have conceded fewer than Liverpool’s total of four in the 2022/23 Premier League.
Aside from former Red Taiwo Awoniyi’s winner for Nottingham Forest, the goals conceded haven’t been toodetrimental. Yet Liverpool were knocked out of both cups by a winning set piece goal, and another has almost certainly concluded their time spent on level terms-or-better in this Champions League tie.
Karim Benzema, 55’
This match was the fifth time Klopp’s Liverpool have conceded at least five goals in his 416 games in charge. Yet there was something odd about every instance.
At Manchester City in 2017, Sadio Mané was dismissed in the first half with the Reds only 1-0 down at the time. The sides who allowed five to Arsenal and Aston Villa in the League Cup were both significantly weakened, the latter to an extreme level.
And then there’s the 7-2 loss at Villa Park. Three of the goals that night were heavily deflected, just as Karim Benzema’s first was on Tuesday. In the ultimate straw clutching exercise, it’s true to say that a full-strength, 11-man Liverpool side has never conceded more than four goals without the aid of deflections under Klopp. There, doesn’t that make you feel better about those games (ahem).
Karim Benzema, 67’
Now counter attacks, counter attacks have been a weakness all season. Liverpool have conceded five goals from them in the league this term, just one fewer than across the previous three campaigns combined. There have been just two instances - Arsenal in 2009/10, Chelsea a decade later - of a ‘big six’ side conceding more in the last 14 seasons.
Yet while the Reds have undoubtedly been weak in this regard, Madrid only had one shot from an Opta-defined counter. They join Crystal Palace and Arsenal in netting from only one fast break against Liverpool in 2022/23.
What a match, eh? A sublime finish, an error, a set play, a deflection and a counter attack. I hope you brought your big bingo dabber pen with you, Carlo. You’re in here, son. HOUSE.
Other work highlights
Links for all my work from this week can be found here, but here are my three favourites.
You might not have realised it but the heralded Harry Kane and the derided Darwin Núñez are having near identical Premier League campaigns.
While we’re on Darwin… there are many ways to measure dribbling success. For arguably the most important one, the Uruguayan is Europe’s leading man.
I found a site this week which shows you how pairs of players affect a team’s expected goal performance. A Liverpool player who has been injured for a while is one half of their top three combinations.
Share the things you love
I love The Beatles. There must be a million books about them, but this week I read one of the more interesting ones I’ve enjoyed for a long time. Michael Braun’s ‘Love Me Do - The Beatles' Progress’ was written from inside the maelstrom of Beatlemania, and you get a glimpse of how the madness affected them as they conquered the UK and first took on America.
Reading about that era also reminded me of their ‘Live At The BBC’ album, which contains loads of songs which were not released at the time they were recorded. Here, for me, is the best of them. Enjoy your weekend, it’ll be March before you know it.