Slotball Shuts The Door For Liverpool When It Matters Most
Liverpool has yet to concede a Premier League goal this season. Arne Slot's side has barely allowed an opposition chance when games have been tight.
The Premier League is ready to resume following the first international break of 2024/25. Liverpool welcome Nottingham Forest to Anfield on Saturday at 3pm. There’s a game you can play while watching along.
The Reds have the best defensive record in the division, having yet to concede a goal. There are two teams that have allowed fewer expected goals than they have (2.4); Manchester City, predictably, on 2.0, and Forest, far less obviously, with 2.1 xG against.
Does this mean Liverpool will have trouble breaking down Nuno Espirito Santo’s side? Judge Forest’s defensive record after they’ve played a team predicted by Opta to finish above 12th in the table, not before.
With Manchester United pencilled in for ninth, you could say something similar for the Reds. There is, however, a distinct difference between themselves and the side they will face this weekend.
It is not immediately visible in the field of Opta-defined big chances, as both sides have conceded five in total. Defending is like comedy though, even when the two don’t directly go hand in hand; timing is everything.
When Forest hosted Bournemouth for their season opener, Dango Ouattara headed a golden opportunity over the bar from a corner in just the fifth minute. Two weeks later, Wolves were prowling around the City Ground. Just two minutes in, Rayan Aït-Nouri failed to convert not one but two big chances.
Liverpool supporters will now be having flashbacks to last season. Jürgen Klopp’s side frequently went behind early in games, or at the very least conceded a high value opportunity before some punters had taken their seats.
Bournemouth, Arsenal and Brighton all scored at Anfield in the opening four minutes in 2023/24, as did Leicester in the Carabao Cup. To that list we can add big chances in the first 10 minutes for West Ham, Burnley, Southampton, Sheffield United and Atalanta in various competitions, again when only talking about home games.
Against the Arne Slot Reds of 2024/25? Nothing, nada, nope. The opposition attacking wasteland isn’t limited to the opening exchanges either.
Liverpool have played approximately 108 minutes at 0-0 this term: an hour at Ipswich, 13 minutes against Brentford and 35 at Old Trafford. Here’s a shot map for the goal attempts they have allowed in that time, with the size of the dot denoting the expected goal value of the chance.
There’s nothing much to see, barely a footprint in the snow. The Reds’ worst half of 2024/25 was undoubtedly the opening 45 minutes at Portman Road, with that period responsible for four of the six marks on the chart. The largest of them, near the ‘D’, was an effort by Omari Hutchinson which was valued by Opta at just 0.13 expected goals.
It is a truly phenomenal record, which will not last forever. It can take just one slip, one tiny error of positioning for the opposition to fashion a worthwhile opportunity. This specific game state is also in part determined by how long it takes Liverpool to score at the other end, of course.
But look at that list of chances, most of them barely worthy of the name. By allowing these shots in 108 minutes, it means that the Reds’ defence has conceded 0.3 expected goals per 90 at 0-0. They haven’t yet gone behind this season because they simply haven’t deserved to suffer that fate.
Liverpool allowed Brentford a little more than they’d ideally like at 1-0, including two chances valued at 0.22 and 0.18 xG. Both occurred in set play situations, though. The Bees can sting any team in that fashion.
While it matters most at 0-0, the Reds have been near-impenetrable at 2-0 too. Two of Ipswich’s three shots in that state of play occurred in the 98th minute, Brentford produced nothing in 20 minutes with United only mustering a 20-yarder from Joshua Zirkzee.
And here’s the kicker: exactly half of the expected goals Liverpool have conceded in the 270 minutes of 2024/25 occurred in the final half hour at the home of their greatest rivals when they were already 3-0 up. If Carlsberg made dream scenarios in which to allow a few chances, and all that.
So, here’s your game to play during the Forest match: see what chances Liverpool allow before either team has scored. The clubs might have conceded similar expected goal totals in the early weeks of this campaign but the traffic should be largely one-way as long as the game remains goalless.
What better tribute to pay on the day the club remembers Ron Yeats.
What a nice lead in to the match…with a bit of a nugget to focus on.