Solving the Void in Liverpool's Attack

Liverpool's expected goal numbers in the Premier League are elite this season. It's what has happened afterwards from a certain position that causes concern.

Liverpool will probably win the league on Sunday. There’s a line to set you up for a great weekend. According to an expected goals powered prediction model, there’s around an 86 per cent chance the Reds get the point they need to wrap up the title against Tottenham Hotspur.

The Liverpool of 2024/25 are disproving the old adage that defense wins championships, just as many sides did before them. They and Arsenal have conceded a similar level of goals, both expected and actual. The difference has come from the Gunners not keeping close to the pace up front.

The champions elect are on course to wrack up 75 non-penalty expected goals this season. Only five sides across the previous seven seasons of Premier League football reached this benchmark, all of them wearing the colours of Liverpool or Manchester City. Those sides didn’t play in a division that is quite as strong either.

There is one notable thing which separates the attack of Arne Slot’s Reds from those of champions past: they are only converting goals at about the par rate.

When Liverpool won the league five years ago, they did so in part thanks to scoring 13 non-penalty goals more than Opta’s xG model suggested they should. The closest a title-winning City side has got to underachieving in attack came when they were 6.7 goals up in 2018/19. Yet with five games remaining in their certain-to-be championship campaign, the Reds are just 0.8 above their npxG. It doesn’t matter, it’s just a bit weird.

It’s notable that no member of the squad is as much as two goals from expectation, for good or bad. They’re all bumbling along, scoring about as many as they should. Fifteen clubs in the division have at least one player who is exceeding their non-penalty xG by more than Liverpool’s top man, 13 possess someone out-stinking their bottom dweller.

Thankfully for Slot, he only has three men who are scoring at a rate worse than one goal below their underlying numbers. What is strange is that they all play in broadly the same position, creating something of a void in the Liverpool attack. Before you start trying to name the culprits, Darwin Núñez isn’t one of them.

The Uruguayan has been on the money in 2024/25, scoring five goals from 5.0 expected. The underperforming trio are Curtis Jones, Diogo Jota and Dominik Szoboszlai, who are all frequently found in the centre of the attack.

The Hungarian is having a peculiar campaign in front of goal, with all five of his league strikes scored with his so-called weaker foot. Understat’s model shows the 24-year-old is overperforming with his left at almost the same rate as he is under par with his right, just from 36 fewer shots.

Every start Szoboszlai has made has been in the middle of the attacking trident behind the centre-forward. While Jones’ campaign has been more positionally varied, he has more starts in Dom’s berth than any other.

He has at least been performing to par when fulfilling that role, with his two goals resulting from being central for cutbacks from the wide zone of the penalty area. Slot would love to see more of this from his number 10, whomever it is.

And then there’s Jota. The man many fans would pick as the player they’d love to see taking a shot if their life depended on it being scored is on a woeful run with Opta-defined big chances.

Jota has missed his last 10 in a row, failing to find the target with seven of the previous eight. Not even Núñez has had a run as bad on the latter half of that stat, though he did have a streak of 13 unconverted big chances last season.

There’s another concerning fact for Jota. Three of the eight league matches in which he has played at least an hour without having a shot for Liverpool have occurred this season. The first five were all against Arsenal, Chelsea or City; in 2024/25 they have been in clashes with Wolves, Newcastle and West Ham.

Jota is not alone for having this sort of game. Luis Díaz has performed broadly to par centrally - three goals from 3.6 xG, per Understat - but played 90 minutes at home against Ipswich there without taking a shot. If one match doesn’t prove anything, drawing a blank against a Championship standard outfit at Anfield is not ideal. The Colombian hasn’t scored in his last nine games in all competitions as the centre forward either.

Which brings us back to Darwin. After averaging 4.5 shots per 90 minutes in his first league campaign in England then 4.7 last season, he’s at 2.8 under Slot. It’s slightly higher (3.3) when starting, but two of Núñez’s five league goals came in stoppage time as a sub at Brentford. It arguably makes sense to give an inefficient finisher more chances, not fewer. Most people seem to think he’ll be leaving this summer anyway.

So, what’s the solution? Should Liverpool target a central forward likely to deliver a higher shot volume? Or is the player’s finishing ability the more important factor if chances are going to be at a premium in that position? I recently discussed this quandary with Josh Williams on his podcast, perhaps without reaching a satisfactory answer. It’s tough.

Maybe there isn’t really a problem. Szoboszlai can’t keep being so inefficient with his right foot, can he? Surely Jota will start converting big chances at a normal rate to resolve his expected goal numbers soon enough, while Díaz is unlikely to play centrally if the Reds sign a player for the position in whom Slot has full faith.

But then think of the potential. Liverpool will be there to be shot at by the chasing pack next season, so if they can add some pep to their finishing on top of an already elite level of chance creation, they could have an even more successful season in 2025/26.

Which sounds a little ludicrous when they might easily have a 15 point lead as Premier League champions on Sunday evening. Solving this problem is unlikely to be Richard Hughes’ top priority this summer either.

Improving from a position of strength is what keeps the top at the top though. It’s time to plug the void.