The Cleanliness of Dirty Sheets

All goals conceded are equal but some goals conceded are more equal(iser) than others

Statistics correct up to Luton 1-1 Everton on May 3, 2024

Liverpool’s defensive record in 2023/24 is strange. They have conceded 36 Premier League goals, comfortably the third in the division in all senses; Everton are fourth with 49, Manchester City second on 32 and Arsenal the best with 28. They won’t shift from that standing now.

Only those three teams plus Newcastle have amassed more than the Reds’ tally of nine clean sheets. That sounds broadly positive, but this season has seen more goals than in any other in the modern history of English football, with three match weeks (more or less) remaining. The shut out is in decline.

And don’t Liverpool know it? They need to keep a clean sheet in all three remaining matches to equal their lowest total in a full season under Jürgen Klopp, posted in 2016/17 and 2020/21. As things stand, the Reds’ proportion of league games without conceding (25.7 per cent) is the lowest it has been since 2004/05. That was a fine season in many ways, but not in the Premier League.

Sharing that statistic on social media drew a variety of responses, as you would expect. Here’s one which set me thinking:

City have not been as solid this term as they often have been in seasons past. Like Liverpool, they have gone behind far more often than they would like or we would expect; the Cityzens and Reds are the top two in the 2023/24 Premier League for points won from losing positions, both in total but also on a per-game-in-which-they-went-behind basis too.

The defending champions have 11 clean sheets to Liverpool’s nine, and from one fewer match. All clean sheets are equal, though, so let’s flip those stats: Liverpool have conceded in 26 matches, City in 23.

What does that prove? Nothing at first. But whereas any shutout ensures your opponent scores nil, if a team concedes at any point then the game state at which that happens makes a huge difference. The value of keeping a clean sheet is static, the cost of losing one can vary wildly.

In 2013/14, another campaign light on shutouts, Liverpool beat Arsenal 5-1 at Anfield. They raced into a 4-0 lead in 20 minutes, added another shortly after the interval, before some chap called Mikel Arteta scored a penalty with 21 minutes to go. The Reds’ clean sheet had gone, but nobody cared. Here are the highlights because they’re worth reliving, rather than because they’re relevant beyond providing an example.

It’s well known the Liverpool class of 2023/24 have conceded the opening goal 16 times. Using goal log data from FBRef, we can check the scoreline for every goal the Reds have conceded.

Remember that Alisson Becker and Caoimhín Kelleher have collectively been beaten in 26 matches. In only two instances was the clean sheet dirtied when Liverpool were better than 1-0 in front. Against Chelsea at home and Brentford away, in relatively quick succession, the Reds were 3-0 up when the London sides bagged a consolation (with Liverpool then adding a fourth goal both times).

Arsenal and City have each lost clean sheets when at least 2-0 up on five occasions, and remember they have conceded in fewer games too. If we look at the records of the teams with at least nine clean sheets this season, plus the league average, we see that Klopp’s men are struggling.

It’s also their joint-worst campaign for losing shutouts when 2-0 up or better, and worst if we use conceding at 0-0 as a tie breaker.

The metrics of goals conceded and clean sheets will forever be used to assess a team’s defensive record. But maybe it’s time to start acknowledging that when shutouts go is more important than that they go at all. Some clean sheets are more equal than others.