It's getting hard to know what to make of the data. It shouldn't be possible to keep losing with these numbers. But then it's hard to factor in going behind to the first opposition shot of the game too, I guess.... almost everything they have done has been at 0-1, which colours everything.
The understat xG data from yesterday's match were weird. Usually, their model consistently overvalues the shots of BOTH teams vs. other models (I typically look at whatever model Fotmob uses). Yesterday, understat & Fotmob valued OUR shots roughly equivalently (2.61 vs 2.75) vs. MANU where understat overvalued vs. Fotmob's (2.53 vs. 1.34). Not important but an interesting anomaly in the data given your point about the xG differential. Perhaps our shots were of more similar value to United's?
It looks like Understat have gone very high on United's chances around half an hour in when Liverpool were making very hard work of clearing the ball - they were going 0.53 when Opta went 0.13. Maybe it should be in the middle somewhere...
Thanks for pointing out the time. Two shots in 27th minute worth 0.82 difference in xG betw the models. Both were threatening sequences where Cunha ran into the space behind Virg but neither were clear shots. Indeed, Mbeumo barely made contact. I'm leaning more toward fotmob's goal difference. P.S. it also seems like shot location is a bigger weight in understat's model (both "shots" were from 6YD center)
It's also the MANNER in which they've conceded. Yesterday, as away at Chelsea, the early goal is conceded when some of our best players switch off. It's easier to accept if you get beaten in a physical challenge or the opponent delivers a moment of magic but, in those 2 situations, Ryan/Macca & then Virg acted stupidly (Chelsea) or lazily (Man U) in conceding. Down 1-0 so early and then everything changes.
I haven't watched the match back yet but, at first blush, I can't recall another match where, in aerial duels, we win the first ball under limited pressure and head it no where near a red shirt, leading to lost possession on the 2nd ball. Given how many opponents choose "long ball" instead of a possession-based approach to build-up & progression, it's a concern. Disrupt our football-playing rhythm and we really struggle. This tendency fits with our struggles in defending and attacking set pieces.
Yeah the data bears that out. Liverpool's pass accuracy with headed passes this season, from best to worst:
Vs Palace 72.4%
Bournemouth 56.4%
Newcastle and Arsenal 50.0%
Everton 42.1%
Burnley 37%
Man United 34.2%
Chelsea 33.3%
But while Chelsea was worse, they attempted fewer than half as many so it was not as many possessions lost. Palace aside, there's been a trend of getting worse at this as the season has gone along.
I'll probably check because I'm curious myself! This is one of those things that is in the data but not published anywhere in an easy to obtain list (as far as I'm aware).
The positive game statistics balance in my opinion is due to the individual quality of the players.
If we could somehow subtract individual class from the team statistics it would be a grim picture to behold.
To illustrate this point: Gakpo hits the crossbar 3 times. The team has nothing to do with that.
If we put a certain threshold, a game late last season we will see that, say e.g., after PSG second game we haven’t played a single good game.
This threshold game idea is already tested by some. It is all but too evident.
Andrew, I have zero faith that Slot is competent enough to change situation for which he is mainly responsible. You may as well start researching van Bronchorst managerial statistics :)
Maybe it was all Klopp inertia without Klopp tiredness and a certain Mr Intensity ego.
Slot is very much looking like a string of recent Man U managers.
Andrew, last season is irrelevant I believe. Brendan Rodgers previous season was very good.
A previous good season doesn’t make for a great coach. Graham Potter, Luis van Gaal, Eric Ten Hag.
My madness is due to a firm belief that Slot is not a great manager. Last season was not a masterpiece, I feel many managers would achieve the same 2024-2025.
We both agree that madness is not an insult but part of being a devoted football fan, I hope :)
The performances have been poor this season with some questionable tactical and personnel decisions from Arne as well as lack of preparation for opponent's tactics. It's worrying but I still retain belief that Arne will fix the problems in the short term and lead us to titles though this season will clearly be one of transition.
Threshold game theory? We were clearly exhausted in the league cup final loss as Arne didn't trust his squad beyond say 14-15 players and reinforcements were delayed until this summer. After PSG at home, we played only 5 matches in the league before clinching. That's way too small a sample to conclude any trend but, in those 5, we played great matches against both Leicester & Tottenham. Keep the faith!
It's getting hard to know what to make of the data. It shouldn't be possible to keep losing with these numbers. But then it's hard to factor in going behind to the first opposition shot of the game too, I guess.... almost everything they have done has been at 0-1, which colours everything.
The understat xG data from yesterday's match were weird. Usually, their model consistently overvalues the shots of BOTH teams vs. other models (I typically look at whatever model Fotmob uses). Yesterday, understat & Fotmob valued OUR shots roughly equivalently (2.61 vs 2.75) vs. MANU where understat overvalued vs. Fotmob's (2.53 vs. 1.34). Not important but an interesting anomaly in the data given your point about the xG differential. Perhaps our shots were of more similar value to United's?
It looks like Understat have gone very high on United's chances around half an hour in when Liverpool were making very hard work of clearing the ball - they were going 0.53 when Opta went 0.13. Maybe it should be in the middle somewhere...
Thanks for pointing out the time. Two shots in 27th minute worth 0.82 difference in xG betw the models. Both were threatening sequences where Cunha ran into the space behind Virg but neither were clear shots. Indeed, Mbeumo barely made contact. I'm leaning more toward fotmob's goal difference. P.S. it also seems like shot location is a bigger weight in understat's model (both "shots" were from 6YD center)
Can’t keep giving teams a 1 goal start every game, even when we are leading we keep getting pegged back
It's also the MANNER in which they've conceded. Yesterday, as away at Chelsea, the early goal is conceded when some of our best players switch off. It's easier to accept if you get beaten in a physical challenge or the opponent delivers a moment of magic but, in those 2 situations, Ryan/Macca & then Virg acted stupidly (Chelsea) or lazily (Man U) in conceding. Down 1-0 so early and then everything changes.
I haven't watched the match back yet but, at first blush, I can't recall another match where, in aerial duels, we win the first ball under limited pressure and head it no where near a red shirt, leading to lost possession on the 2nd ball. Given how many opponents choose "long ball" instead of a possession-based approach to build-up & progression, it's a concern. Disrupt our football-playing rhythm and we really struggle. This tendency fits with our struggles in defending and attacking set pieces.
Yeah the data bears that out. Liverpool's pass accuracy with headed passes this season, from best to worst:
Vs Palace 72.4%
Bournemouth 56.4%
Newcastle and Arsenal 50.0%
Everton 42.1%
Burnley 37%
Man United 34.2%
Chelsea 33.3%
But while Chelsea was worse, they attempted fewer than half as many so it was not as many possessions lost. Palace aside, there's been a trend of getting worse at this as the season has gone along.
if it's not too much trouble, what was our range of headed pass accuracy for a full season? Arsenal's?
Alas that is probably too much trouble, I had to go through game by game on Stats Zone to get those figures!
I'll look up the same fixtures from last season to see how they compare later.
please don't go to any trouble ... you've got such a good command of what data is available and better access to it so I thought I'd ask
P.S. thanks for the post-match posts! I'm sure it's a lot of work in a tight time period ... appreciate it!
I'll probably check because I'm curious myself! This is one of those things that is in the data but not published anywhere in an easy to obtain list (as far as I'm aware).
The positive game statistics balance in my opinion is due to the individual quality of the players.
If we could somehow subtract individual class from the team statistics it would be a grim picture to behold.
To illustrate this point: Gakpo hits the crossbar 3 times. The team has nothing to do with that.
If we put a certain threshold, a game late last season we will see that, say e.g., after PSG second game we haven’t played a single good game.
This threshold game idea is already tested by some. It is all but too evident.
Andrew, I have zero faith that Slot is competent enough to change situation for which he is mainly responsible. You may as well start researching van Bronchorst managerial statistics :)
Maybe it was all Klopp inertia without Klopp tiredness and a certain Mr Intensity ego.
Slot is very much looking like a string of recent Man U managers.
Zero faith in a manager that won the league last season? That's madness, I'm not having that.
Andrew, last season is irrelevant I believe. Brendan Rodgers previous season was very good.
A previous good season doesn’t make for a great coach. Graham Potter, Luis van Gaal, Eric Ten Hag.
My madness is due to a firm belief that Slot is not a great manager. Last season was not a masterpiece, I feel many managers would achieve the same 2024-2025.
We both agree that madness is not an insult but part of being a devoted football fan, I hope :)
The performances have been poor this season with some questionable tactical and personnel decisions from Arne as well as lack of preparation for opponent's tactics. It's worrying but I still retain belief that Arne will fix the problems in the short term and lead us to titles though this season will clearly be one of transition.
Threshold game theory? We were clearly exhausted in the league cup final loss as Arne didn't trust his squad beyond say 14-15 players and reinforcements were delayed until this summer. After PSG at home, we played only 5 matches in the league before clinching. That's way too small a sample to conclude any trend but, in those 5, we played great matches against both Leicester & Tottenham. Keep the faith!