I was thinking it's so hard to know what to expect from Liverpool this season. But perhaps this is exactly what to expect. Sublime and ridiculous, hand in hand.
If my maths are right then we conceded 28 big chances in our first 9 PL matches this season and have only conceded 12 in our last 9 (per Sofascore data).
Unsurprising then that we have taken 17pts from those 9. While that in itself is nothing special, if we can sustain this defensive performance for the rest of the season then it should be enough to finish in the top 5 as we will always have a goal threat even if the football itself is a bit ugly at times.
Of course the main problem with that is our desperate shortage of defenders. It’s unlikely our 2 centre halves will remain unscathed all season, so we need to buy one in January and then we can probably all sleep a bit more soundly that CL football will be secured again.
Yes those big chance figures are correct. Two of the recent 12 were penalties so it has essentially been one per game in regular play. A perfectly decent record.
While the second half performance today won't ever look that good, I suspect it's one that won't look quite so bad in terms of chances conceded when viewed in the cold light of day. Almost all of Wolves' xG came from the corner goal.
Four 2-0 leads squandered this season (Bournemouth, Newcastle, Atletico, Leeds). Two of them when playing with a man advantage. The last 2 matches (incl. 1 with a man advantage) could've made it 6 such leads squandered but for some good luck. On the bright side, we've only dropped points in 1 of 6. However, it's getting hard to defend the manager's tactics in a 2-0 game state, especially at home.
While I can't defend Slot's tactics, these examples have been almost entirely down to set pieces. IF IF IF IF IF they could have cut out those goals, so many matches this season would've been easier. Ultimately the record is so bad that they have to stop giving away corners as much as possible - maybe that's the tactic to focus on, Arne!
Slot described it as a game within a game and we're losing those too often. It just becomes about defending set pieces properly. Slot’s admitted it, the numbers are poor and opponents clearly target it.
That’s why I keep thinking about someone like Johnny Heitinga and whether he is an ingredient missing this season in training?
On TTT someone asked if there is a stat for "expected lucky bounce in a crowded area goes direct to an opposition player right in front of goal". They were kidding (I hope they were) but with so many metrics out there is there something?
Thanks Beez. So, the majority of non-penalty set-piece goals arrive after 75 minutes, with several coming in the final ten minutes or deep into stoppage time. Two "corner" goals after kick off but we've stopped conceding those early goals in general, the other two after the restart though Wolves was the first in a while.
5’ – Dango Ouattara (Brentford), throw-in
9’ – Ismaïla Sarr (Crystal Palace), corner
33’ – Murillo (Nottingham Forest), free kick
48’ – Nicolás González (Manchester City), corner
51’ – Santiago Bueno (Wolverhampton Wanderers), corner
57’ – Bruno Guimarães (Newcastle United), throw-in
78’ – Morgan Gibbs-White (Nottingham Forest), free kick
83’ – Richarlison (Tottenham Hotspur), corner
84’ – Harry Maguire (Manchester United), corner
88’ – William Osula (Newcastle United), free kick
90+6’ – Ao Tanaka (Leeds United), corner
90+7’ – Eddie Nketiah (Crystal Palace), throw-in
The bulk have come after 75+,. and I think we're missing a Joel Matip type centre back we can bring on to add another aerial precese in games. Joe has been been injured though is not a giant (like Guehi). It’s where we're trying to manage a game out and it would have been Leoni's role to give us a third "dominant" aerial point (just like Quansah). Maybe, we need a Matip-giant specialist on the bench just to see out shit-ball like Endo was coming on last season. I do think it's the second phase of a set piece we struggle with but having another 6'3"+ player in the box to stop that would reduce (not cut out) the chance.
Though set pieces have been an issue across the whole season I think we have been improving. We saw out the Brighton and Wolves games (both sides Arsenal struggled to dispatch needing three own goals and a penalty) and Wolves created nothing bar that corner header by their 6'6" giant (0.7-.0.8xG). We're generally handling the high stuff better in games but need to think about restarts and final quarters. I don’t think a side that is clearly transitioning is not going to get nerves when at 2-0 - which is a dodgy lead for us right now.
Edit: And I don't think we mention missing Leoni enough (despite his age; had a 63% aerial duel win rate though a smaller sample last season at Parma who were scrapping at the foot of Serie A remember) as our 6'5" giant shit ball combatant in the context of those 15-20 minutes at the end of games when Virg and Ibou are knackered having spent most of their time in the air fighting aerial duels against opposition shit-fires.
Yeah people used to get nervous when Klopp threw Matip on at the end of tight games but I'm not sure why - it usually worked, at least as far as I can recall from this distance.
You’ve only got seven as penalties don’t count! You can add both Newcastle goals (throw in and free-kick), Crystal Palace opener (corner), Man City’s second (corner) and Forest’s third (free-kick).
Our bad set piece record this season is unexpected and it isn‘t at the same time.
Last season we were bad at scoring but good at defending them. So the logical progression in the summer would have been to focus on being more effective on offensive set pieces. And I believe there were some ideas that they tried in preseason and at the start of the season, but nothing successful.
Slot recently pointed out that we do not concede directly from set pieces but mainly from second phases which is more a responsibility of the man oriented players rather than the positional defenders.
I wonder if this is reflected in clearances stats from last and this season?
The clearance stats show the team is having to do more defending this season - averaging 28.8 per game, up from 19.1 in 2024/25. Sadly it's not possible to pull out which are open play or set play, but Slot is certainly right about most of the issues being from second balls (as referenced in my new article: https://www.andrewbeasleyfootball.com/p/aaron-briggs-is-set-free)
I was actually expecting that clearance stats overall would have been reduced at set pieces, especially from midfielders and attackers, hence why second phases are getting dangerous. Well, the data guys at Liverpool will know and it might or might not have been a factor why they came to the decision to let go the set piece coach mid season.
I was thinking it's so hard to know what to expect from Liverpool this season. But perhaps this is exactly what to expect. Sublime and ridiculous, hand in hand.
If my maths are right then we conceded 28 big chances in our first 9 PL matches this season and have only conceded 12 in our last 9 (per Sofascore data).
Unsurprising then that we have taken 17pts from those 9. While that in itself is nothing special, if we can sustain this defensive performance for the rest of the season then it should be enough to finish in the top 5 as we will always have a goal threat even if the football itself is a bit ugly at times.
Of course the main problem with that is our desperate shortage of defenders. It’s unlikely our 2 centre halves will remain unscathed all season, so we need to buy one in January and then we can probably all sleep a bit more soundly that CL football will be secured again.
If we don’t buy then we are taking a big risk.
Yes those big chance figures are correct. Two of the recent 12 were penalties so it has essentially been one per game in regular play. A perfectly decent record.
While the second half performance today won't ever look that good, I suspect it's one that won't look quite so bad in terms of chances conceded when viewed in the cold light of day. Almost all of Wolves' xG came from the corner goal.
Four 2-0 leads squandered this season (Bournemouth, Newcastle, Atletico, Leeds). Two of them when playing with a man advantage. The last 2 matches (incl. 1 with a man advantage) could've made it 6 such leads squandered but for some good luck. On the bright side, we've only dropped points in 1 of 6. However, it's getting hard to defend the manager's tactics in a 2-0 game state, especially at home.
If we review them....
Bournemouth - two counter attack goals.
Newcastle - two set pieces
Atletico - two deflected goals
Leeds - started by an entirely avoidable penalty
Tottenham - one goal from a corner
Wolves - one goal from a corner.
While I can't defend Slot's tactics, these examples have been almost entirely down to set pieces. IF IF IF IF IF they could have cut out those goals, so many matches this season would've been easier. Ultimately the record is so bad that they have to stop giving away corners as much as possible - maybe that's the tactic to focus on, Arne!
Arne loves an IF, IF, IF … I needed a laugh
Thanks Beez.
Slot described it as a game within a game and we're losing those too often. It just becomes about defending set pieces properly. Slot’s admitted it, the numbers are poor and opponents clearly target it.
That’s why I keep thinking about someone like Johnny Heitinga and whether he is an ingredient missing this season in training?
Heitinga is available right now...
Loathe though I am to look for a former Evertonian to return, I'm not sure it can be said his replacement by GvB has been a success
On TTT someone asked if there is a stat for "expected lucky bounce in a crowded area goes direct to an opposition player right in front of goal". They were kidding (I hope they were) but with so many metrics out there is there something?
I'd look at how many goals scored or conceded didn't have an assist, but I don't think there's a quick way to do that (with the defence at least).
Thanks Beez. So, the majority of non-penalty set-piece goals arrive after 75 minutes, with several coming in the final ten minutes or deep into stoppage time. Two "corner" goals after kick off but we've stopped conceding those early goals in general, the other two after the restart though Wolves was the first in a while.
5’ – Dango Ouattara (Brentford), throw-in
9’ – Ismaïla Sarr (Crystal Palace), corner
33’ – Murillo (Nottingham Forest), free kick
48’ – Nicolás González (Manchester City), corner
51’ – Santiago Bueno (Wolverhampton Wanderers), corner
57’ – Bruno Guimarães (Newcastle United), throw-in
78’ – Morgan Gibbs-White (Nottingham Forest), free kick
83’ – Richarlison (Tottenham Hotspur), corner
84’ – Harry Maguire (Manchester United), corner
88’ – William Osula (Newcastle United), free kick
90+6’ – Ao Tanaka (Leeds United), corner
90+7’ – Eddie Nketiah (Crystal Palace), throw-in
The bulk have come after 75+,. and I think we're missing a Joel Matip type centre back we can bring on to add another aerial precese in games. Joe has been been injured though is not a giant (like Guehi). It’s where we're trying to manage a game out and it would have been Leoni's role to give us a third "dominant" aerial point (just like Quansah). Maybe, we need a Matip-giant specialist on the bench just to see out shit-ball like Endo was coming on last season. I do think it's the second phase of a set piece we struggle with but having another 6'3"+ player in the box to stop that would reduce (not cut out) the chance.
Though set pieces have been an issue across the whole season I think we have been improving. We saw out the Brighton and Wolves games (both sides Arsenal struggled to dispatch needing three own goals and a penalty) and Wolves created nothing bar that corner header by their 6'6" giant (0.7-.0.8xG). We're generally handling the high stuff better in games but need to think about restarts and final quarters. I don’t think a side that is clearly transitioning is not going to get nerves when at 2-0 - which is a dodgy lead for us right now.
Edit: And I don't think we mention missing Leoni enough (despite his age; had a 63% aerial duel win rate though a smaller sample last season at Parma who were scrapping at the foot of Serie A remember) as our 6'5" giant shit ball combatant in the context of those 15-20 minutes at the end of games when Virg and Ibou are knackered having spent most of their time in the air fighting aerial duels against opposition shit-fires.
Yeah people used to get nervous when Klopp threw Matip on at the end of tight games but I'm not sure why - it usually worked, at least as far as I can recall from this distance.
I wondered what PL set piece goals we'd conceded after you mentioned 12. These are the nine I can find:
1. Palace Nketiah (90+7) Throw-in
2. Brentford Ouattara (5') Throw-in
3. Brentford Thiago (60') Penalty
4. Man Utd Maguire (84') Corner
5. Nott Forest Murillo (33') Corner
6. Leeds Calvert-Lewin (73') Penalty
7. Leeds Tanaka (90'+6) Corner
8. Spurs Richarlison (83') Corner
9. Wolves Bueno (51') Corner
What are the other three?
You’ve only got seven as penalties don’t count! You can add both Newcastle goals (throw in and free-kick), Crystal Palace opener (corner), Man City’s second (corner) and Forest’s third (free-kick).
Our bad set piece record this season is unexpected and it isn‘t at the same time.
Last season we were bad at scoring but good at defending them. So the logical progression in the summer would have been to focus on being more effective on offensive set pieces. And I believe there were some ideas that they tried in preseason and at the start of the season, but nothing successful.
Slot recently pointed out that we do not concede directly from set pieces but mainly from second phases which is more a responsibility of the man oriented players rather than the positional defenders.
I wonder if this is reflected in clearances stats from last and this season?
The clearance stats show the team is having to do more defending this season - averaging 28.8 per game, up from 19.1 in 2024/25. Sadly it's not possible to pull out which are open play or set play, but Slot is certainly right about most of the issues being from second balls (as referenced in my new article: https://www.andrewbeasleyfootball.com/p/aaron-briggs-is-set-free)
Just read it. Excellent article once again.
I was actually expecting that clearance stats overall would have been reduced at set pieces, especially from midfielders and attackers, hence why second phases are getting dangerous. Well, the data guys at Liverpool will know and it might or might not have been a factor why they came to the decision to let go the set piece coach mid season.
Thanks. Yes the data will exist at Opta, just not in an easy-to-find way for us outsiders!