Turning The Signal From Green To Red

And with you, I can see a traffic jam. Straight up ahead.

The previous edition of this newsletter concerned Arne Slot’s bed habits. He pulled his Liverpool blanket up over his head to keep it warm when the cold air around the club was threatening to plunge 2025/26 into ice. Tightening up the Reds’ defence has come at the cost of fluency going forward but after three consecutive heavy defeats, what realistic choice did Slot have?

Arne Slot Under Rafa Benitez's Blanket

As discussed in the above article, Liverpool have a much better record this season in low event games - those where the combined non-penalty expected goals is less than two. The games that have got out of hand have tended to remain tantalising out of reach.

Think about the start of the season, the games with Bournemouth and Newcastle. The Reds only needed late winners after they had thrown away two-goal leads. Dialling down the chaos after reaching that point would’ve likely saved a lot of hassle. If easier said than done in the maelstrom of a match, Liverpool are at least now showing that the current crop can limit the chances of their opponents.

And from there, they have a platform on which to build. It will be fascinating to see how the match with Brighton unfolds on Saturday. Their visits to Anfield in recent years have been wild. The Reds came from behind to win the previous two clashes 2-1, after each side threw away a 2-0 lead to draw in the two encounters prior to that.

A similar match is the last thing Liverpool need, before we get to whether Mohamed Salah starts, plays, remains on the bench throughout or sits with his family in a box. The eyes of the world - except the UK - will be on Anfield at 3pm.

In trying to figure out how the Reds have started to restrict opposing teams from causing so much havoc, I inadvertently created a traffic system of sorts using FBRef’s passing data.

The first stage is ‘xA - Expected Assists’. These are defined as follows: “The likelihood each completed pass becomes a goal assist given the pass type, phase of play, location and distance.” In simple terms, it’s a pass value model.

While a team would want to prevent their opponents compiling a big figure here, it’s the cost of doing business. The opposition are going to move the ball up field to try to score at various points in any match. This figure is green in the traffic light as it is fine in a broad sense for this to happen. Inescapable too.

We then have orange, passes which create chances (‘xAG: Expected Assisted Goals’). This is the total of “xG which follows a pass that assists a shot”, so is more important to stop. Once these rise up for the other team then your side is in danger, if not quite chuckling about it like Ralph Wiggum.

Until they become assists, our red light. Goal conceded, damage inflicted. Billy Ocean had it right years ago. These numbers don’t automatically shrink as each step grows more costly despite the three stages flowing in a logical order. Looking at the defensive traffic lights for the 2025/26 Premier League shows why Liverpool have been stuck in a jam though.