What Sort of Team Do Liverpool Want to Be?
Jorrel Hato and Milos Kerkez have been linked with Liverpool but are different types of players. The left-back the Reds sign could prove very instructive.
Liverpool are going to win the 2024/25 Premier League. With a week between each of their final eight matches, it would not be a surprise to see them finish with a points total in the nineties.
While they recently suffered a disastrous week in other competitions, the Reds still topped the Champions League league phase and reached the Carabao Cup final. Doing either of these things would be an achievement for almost any other club, never mind the small matter of, you know, also winning the league.
What makes these feats even more remarkable is that you could put question marks over the future of many Liverpool players. Arguably the three most important are almost out of contract, while the world’s best goalkeeper will soon have one of the game’s best younger players in his position snapping at his heels.
There are also several squad members whom Arne Slot doesn’t appear to trust to start important games, while neither of the main options at centre-forward have consistently delivered this season either. On one hand there isn’t much transfer work urgently needed, on the other you can see the summer of 2025 quickly becoming a busy one for sporting director Richard Hughes.
The area of the squad looking ripest for recruitment is left-back. A recent article on The Athletic confirmed that the club is aiming to shop in this particular aisle of the big player warehouse.
“Strengthening at left-back is also on the agenda. Milos Kerkez, 21, is highly regarded, but Bournemouth would want around three times the £15.5m they paid AZ for the Hungary international in 2023. Ajax’s Jorrel Hato, 19, is another option.”
JAMES PEARCE, THE ATHLETIC
To this writer, it’s always more interesting to see the type of players being targeted, rather than worrying about the specific names or how much they will cost. No team ever wins the transfer window, no matter what you might read to the contrary.
As Hato and Kerkez are very different types of full-back, what are Liverpool looking for? Who, or what, are they hoping to replace?
People like viewing statistics on radars as they’re easy to understand. In theory.
The above example shows that Kerkez has been outperforming Andy Robertson on the defensive metrics. As Bournemouth’s average possession is 10 per cent lower than Liverpool’s, you’d be worried if he didn’t.
It’s the same reason the Hungarian attempts fewer passes. Having broadly similar figures as the Liverpool man for progressive carries and progressive passes rec(eived) when his team has so much less of the ball shows how vital Kerkez can be to an attack. But then his recent assist at Tottenham proved that better than any statistic, as the clip here will show you if you somehow missed it.
As for Hato, his radar reminds me of one I made for Robertson when he first signed for the Reds. I wasn’t impressed at the time. Having searched online for the image, I can find no trace, suggesting I probably deleted the tweet once it became clear that the Scot was a successful purchase. Someone will have receipts because the internet is like that.
“Luck also played a part,” wrote Ian Graham in his book How To Win The Premier League in reference to how well the left-back has done for the club. “No one - certainly not me - expected Andy Robertson to become a world-class defender,” he added, showing that even the best in the data business can be taken by surprise.
More interesting was that Graham had doubts about the left-back’s defensive capabilities whereas Jürgen Klopp didn’t care. He wanted someone who could attack, which Robertson could, with the combination of coaching and cover from elsewhere within the team taking care of the rest. ‘Robbo’ is the perfect case study of what really matters with recruitment: you can almost forget a lot of what a player has done before, that is what they were instructed to do by their manager. What do you want them to do for you?
If we assess them in very broad strokes, Kostas Tsimikas is a logical deputy for Robertson. They cover the left flank, fashion chances via crossing and can be handy at taking a set piece. While he hasn’t proved the latter, Kerkez has certainly been creative from wide deliveries; the 21-year-old is only three behind Trent Alexander-Arnold and Robertson for crossed key passes in 2024/25, so is ahead in open play.
His heatmap, from Opta Analyst, shows how he mostly hugs the touchline. He is not an inverting full-back. Damn it; he hasn’t been before but maybe he could be, I mean.
As Hato plays in the Eredivisie, fancy graphics are harder to come by. However, he has been inverting into midfield, as both his heatmap and a scouting report on The Tomkins Times testify.
A notable fact which leapt from the latter is that the Ajax man is very strong in the air. Tripling the aerial duels collectively won by Liverpool’s first choice full backs in the league this season only gives them two more than Kerkez, but adding all of that together still only produces a shade under two-thirds of Hato’s total.
Newcastle’s second goal at Wembley came in part thanks to Robertson being beaten in the air. It’s an attacking method in which opposing teams can get one over the Reds relatively easily on either side of the back four.
It’s little surprise the Dutch international is good in the air, as he has significant experience at centre-back. It was Hato’s primary position last season, from where he faced Aston Villa and Brighton in European competitions.
Whether he could complete the colossal task of eventually replacing Virgil van Dijk at Anfield is for another day. For now, he would be a better candidate than Kerkez to help Liverpool form a back three shape in possession or provide another body in midfield if that is what Slot is looking to do.
Kerkez is older, more experienced and would cost more than Hato. That’s as a result of those personal factors but also because he plays for a club that can get into the top 30 highest earning in the world despite playing in a 11,000 capacity stadium. Based on top recorded speed this season, the Bournemouth defender is quicker than his Ajax counterpart and the players he’d be replacing too.
But forget pace and the financial aspect for a second. Which is the right player for Liverpool? That, and how they are looking to play, matters most. The answer may depend on who the Reds’ full-back will be on the opposite flank in 2025/26.
Any ideas, Trent?
Given our first choice left winger seems most likely to be Cody Gakpo next season, then the links to Hato at left back don’t really make sense.
Gakpo loves to cut inside and cross/shoot, so you need that overlapper to make space for him.
That’s Kerkez, he would will run all day to make that space, maximising the strengths of both players on the left, and potentially giving us a great, solid, dependable, left side for 5 years or so in tandem with Cody.
I would imagine we are scouting Hato as a long term VVD replacement, probably not for a transfer this summer but for a year or two down the line, depending on the length of deal that VVD hopefully signs.
I personally (based on nothing but putting two and two together), think a deal for Kerkez will be done quickly and easily in the summer. It just makes so much sense positionally, his age, his style, even his nationality given we have his international captain in the team to ease his adaptation off the pitch, not to mention Richard Hughes knowing all about him and his contract.
We might end up missing the boat for Hato if someone else gets him first, but you can’t win them all.
Andrew, the way you present this data is very entertaining. Usually, complex topics are discussed in a formal way. You writing is vibrating with sense of humor and wit and for that I am grateful.
I am not sure that Slot style gives priority to the backs as much as Klopp's. We may not spend big on a left back and Kerkez then would be out of question.
If Salah leaves we will need goals. Slot was very clear that he needs striker(s)for his system. Those two combined may shift our budget from defence to attack.