Who is the most creative player in the Premier League?
Squawka showed Arsenal's Martin Ødegaard is the top Premier League player for open play chances created since the start of 2023/24. What about chance quality?
Liverpool’s draw with Arsenal was one of those knife-edge games two big teams often produce. Whether it was good or bad depends on what you find entertaining but it was close.
Almost every important metric was as near to level as to render the differences irrelevant. We saw both sides score from a set piece, both score thanks to a piercing long ball delivered down their right channel.
Chances came at a high premium, particularly in open play. Kai Havertz was the only man on either side to create two opportunities if we exclude set plays. Per FBRef, the German’s creativity delivered all of just 0.06 expected goals.
The Gunners would have been more incisive had Martin Ødegaard been available. On Saturday evening, Squawka shared a list of the top 10 creators of open play chances in the Premier League since the start of last season, with the Norwegian leading the way.
Maybe his presence wouldn’t have shifted the creative needle all that much at the Emirates last weekend. Luis Diáz, Bukayo Saka and Mohamed Salah all made the list here while delivering one open play chance between them in the match. Good teams know how to cancel each other out better than anybody.
In reality, the above table contains context-less, engagement-farming numbers which drive any remotely competent analyst to distraction. How many minutes has each man played? What was the quality of the chances they provided to their teammates? It’s essential to account for these factors, not least as some players from the list shift position significantly once you do.
(A boring note on the data which follows: it’s open play as defined by Understat. Squawka’s totals include chances set up in set piece situations but not from the dead ball itself. For instance, Díaz’ assist at Arsenal would be included by them as it was a flick-on, yet the passage of play was from a corner. The chance creation numbers hereafter therefore don’t align with the above table, though they do feel more inline with what people would think of as open play).
Once you apply the time played to pro-rata the totals, the difference between most players in our study shrinks considerably. Ødegaard remains top, albeit with seven men within 0.22 open play chances per 90 minutes of his average. That’s the equivalent of eight key passes across a full season when playing the entirety of every game. It’s nothing.
Sorting by this method relegates Saka, Dejan Kulusevski and Bruno Fernandes from second, third and joint-fourth in the original list to the bottom three of the pro-rata standings. The pairs of Liverpool and Manchester City players take spots four to seven, with Cole Palmer and Heung-min Son completing the podium behind Ødegaard.
Open play chances take many forms, of course, which is why it’s essential to factor in expected goals. Any data which is measured ‘from the start of last season’ in October is weighted four-fifths towards the previous campaign. Arsenal, City and Liverpool all averaged at least 17 shots per 90 in 2023/24, with the Reds’ mark of 20.6 topping Europe’s big five leagues for at least the last eight seasons. With that many attempts at goal, there are inevitably some chances of negligible value.
This idea is reflected in the expected assist numbers in a big way. Our group of players range from 69 to 81 open play chances created, meaning the top man set up about 17 per cent more than the bottom player. However, the xA generated almost doubles between 10th and first.
The most startling fact revealed by looking at this branch of the data is that only two of these players generated fewer expected assists than Ødegaard. The man being highlighted as the leader by Squawka must have created quite a few Grade F chances, all circus animals and filler. There is a clear top three for xA per 90, none of whom were in the leading trio in the original list.
Despite being eighth for open play chances created per Squawka, by Understat’s model Salah is top for expected assists per key pass (0.21) which in turn pushes him to the top for xA per 90 minutes (0.41). With Heung-min Son - the other player in his thirties in this group - also close by on the graph, write off veterans at your peril.
And although we’re here to assess creativity, Salah has been the top man in this decet for open play expected goals per 90 too. He does it all.
Liverpool have played 47 league games since the start of 2023/24. Three of the matches saw the Reds have two of their chances tied for highest xG value, meaning we conveniently have a sample of 50 best quality opportunities. Some which were not top in the game in which they occurred would have been in others, but we have a half century of shots that were Liverpool’s largest xG chance on their given day.
Salah created 11 of them. Nobody else has more than six, though Cody Gakpo’s sextet have all occurred since the start of April. He’s the form man for this convoluted metric.
Due to his age, Liverpool should not approach Salah’s contract negotiations with a blank cheque and an open calendar. But considering he’s arguably the most creative player in the Premier League while being directly involved in the Reds’ best chance in around a third of their matches, they better have someone with gold in their boots lined up if they’re happy to let the Egyptian leave next summer.