Why Arne Slot's Liverpool Struggle With Duel Statistics (and why it won't change)

Liverpool players losing duels has become a theme of 2024/25. There are several significant issues behind their numbers though.

Football narratives are often started with relative ease. Maintaining them can be even simpler. Maybe Anfield is quiet or perhaps Trent Alexander-Arnold can’t defend, or possibly Gary Neville holds these views and would love it if you did too.

It isn’t always the media who steer the conversation. Liverpool’s inability to win duels has been a theme of this season since Arne Slot’s first post-match press conference with the club. He mentioned the issue in explaining why he withdrew Jarell Quansah during the half time interval at Portman Road.

The day after the Reds’ lost the Carabao Cup final to Newcastle, there was no shortage of analysis which focussed upon the team’s duel record. Does this metric explain why Liverpool were beaten at Wembley or were outplayed by Paris Saint-Germain?

Let’s ask Opta Analyst, whose article included the following:

“In total this season, Liverpool have only won more than 50% of their duels in 15 of their 47 games, and have only done so three times in their last 17 games in all competitions.”

This trend was highlighted for the Reds’ Premier League matches via a graphic in a similar piece on Sky Sports:

Let’s disregard that the line is rarely more than one per game either side of zero for now. The commentary in the article contained other statistics which made similar points:

“In the last fortnight, Liverpool have registered three of their five lowest duel success rates all season… The issue was most pronounced away against Paris Saint-Germain, when Liverpool won just 32.5 per cent of the game's duels, the club's lowest success rate on record in the Champions League.”

Frame the issue how ever you choose. The theme is that Liverpool’s statistics for duels have not been outstanding at any point this season, getting worse in recent weeks as their hopes of winning multiple trophies disintegrated.

It may be that the club has a problem and it may be that it predates 2024/25. Jürgen Klopp occasionally highlighted the issue when he was in charge, after all. But digging into the data makes it apparent that it would be something of a miracle if Liverpool ever had a strong duel figure over a long period.

The above image is an abridged version of Opta’s definition of a duel. They also include when a goalkeeper smothers the ball by claiming it at the feet of an attacker. With data for this relatively rare event unavailable in the public realm (to the best of my knowledge), we’ll ignore them for the purposes of this study.

Duels are partly split depending on whether they occur on the deck or in the air. For the latter, Liverpool have few concerns. There are seven players with an aerial duel win rate of at least 71 per cent in the Premier League this term, with the Reds the only side to possess two of them: Ibrahima Konaté (75.9) and Virgil van Dijk (71.2). The team tops the standings for the division.

Top 10 Premier League Players for Aerial Duel Win% since 2018/19 (minimum 200 wins)

While this makes Liverpool’s duel issues seem a little mystifying, there are two factors which explain it. Firstly, even the league-leading Reds have only won 55.1 per cent of their aerial duels.

When we factor in our second pertinent point, that one-to-one battles conducted in the air account for around a quarter of the total, it shows why proficiency in this area doesn’t make much of a dent in the overall duel figures.

The ground element of the metric comprises tackles, take-ons (a.k.a. dribbles) and fouls. The key action in two of the these three duel types is conducted off-ball, which means greater opportunities for teams that cede possession to their opponents.

A couple of other factors will influence duel statistics. Dribbling numbers are undoubtedly affected by the combination of managerial tactical choice and player ability to beat an opponent with the ball.

The Liverpool of 2018/19 averaged 16.3 attempted take-ons per match, a meaningless figure in isolation. Yet despite being the best performing runner up in English football history with a 61.8 per cent possession average, that’s fewer than the three teams currently occupying the Premier League relegation zone. Even with their higher average of 17.5 take-ons per game in 2024/25, there’s still only five teams in the top flight averaging fewer.

For the fouls part of the equation, the referee has their thumb on the scales. Think about the three elements of ground duels. You can get pretty close to them all happening simultaneously; a defender attempts to tackle an attacking dribbler but commits a foul. Or does he? One official may think so, another waves play on.

This variety is a part of why Liverpool’s duel numbers will likely always look uninspiring. Take a look at this chart of possession versus foul difference per game, what do you notice?

The immediate takeaway is that only once in the previous eight seasons have Liverpool suffered more fouls than they committed. Consider too the location of the five lowest red dots. Other clubs with that level of possession aren’t on the wrong side of the foul ledger very often. Here are the top 10 team seasons for negative foul difference among those that had a minimum of 57.1 per cent possession.

Is there something unusual about how the Reds play? Or how they are refereed? You’ll have to decide for yourself.

When a game contains somewhere around a duel per minute, being down by two fouls per match isn’t significant. There have been games this season in which that difference reached double figures against Slot’s men, though, which makes a larger dent.

None of this is to say that Liverpool can’t do better in one-on-one challenges. When Slot talks post-match about being displeased with how the Reds performed in this manner, he isn’t drilling down into data in the heat of the moment. Even so, his side are undoubtedly hampered in a statistical sense with each aspect of the metric.

1. Liverpool are strong aerially, but less than a quarter of their duels come this way when league average is closer to a third;

2. They don’t try to dribble past opponents as frequently as they could, presumably by choice as they have enough of the ball to do so more often;

3. The fact they usually dominate the ball gives them fewer opportunities to record tackles;

4. They commit more fouls than they suffer, which is strange in light of how dominant they usually are in games.

Roy Hodgson’s Reds probably had better duel stats than the current vintage simply by virtue of their low-risk, long ball approach. So, that bombshell has led to this: a stat nerd is telling you to ignore a stat. I knew the end of days were coming in 2025.

Sorry, Arne, your boys look likely to always struggle to record good duel numbers. Without seriously amending their playing style - and possibly without extreme reform of the PGMOL - nothing will change on that front.