Why Chelsea Won't Win The Premier League
Some basic statistics go back to the dawn of football in 1992. One of them explains why Chelsea should not be considered a title threat to Liverpool.
A recent edition of this newsletter assessed the 2024/25 Premier League title race through the prism of the points required. With 91 deemed the target, Arsenal and Manchester City’s chances of reaching that benchmark were dismissed.
Little that has occurred since has changed that viewpoint. For either club to hit that target they can only drop seven and five points respectively across the remaining 23 matches.
Having won their last four games, Chelsea have moved into second place. This has given them nine points of wiggle room if aiming for 91, so it is only fair to rate their chances of beating Liverpool to the top prize in England. They have a deep squad with only third-tier European football to disrupt them, leaving their top players relatively fresh. It’s an advantage they likely won’t enjoy next season.
The Blues are dismissing their chances themselves, at least publicly. Cole Palmer’s reaction to being asked about Chelsea’s title hopes after their recent 3-0 win against Aston Villa was an amusing scoff to immediately dismiss the very notion. "If we keep winning, I'm sure we will be near the top four. We are just trying to keep going and win plenty of games,” he said, in the type of response issued by footballers throughout history. One game at a time, Brian.
To many people, it might seem they have come from nowhere to reach their current position. As recently as April 3rd, Chelsea were 12th in the 2023/24 table. Their underlying performance was worthy of a top four spot, though, as the expected points table for last season illustrates. Mauricio Pochettino laid a foundation upon which Enzo Maresca could build.
The fact they are further down the equivalent table for this season - which you can view here - should be evidence enough that Chelsea won’t win the Premier League this season. As insightful as xG is, it is a relatively recent development, with simpler metrics stretching back to the new dawn of English football in 1992. Comparing the Blues against the last 32 seasons shows why they won’t finish first, but also highlights an area in which the Reds should aim to improve.
We’re talking about shots on target, as FBRef carries data on the metric for the entire Premier League era. While it doesn’t account for chance quality as accurately as expected goals, it still provides a degree of insight; it’s hardly revelatory that the best teams have more attempts with a clear route to goal than they allow in return.
The trend for the top six is as clear as it is unsurprising. As you move down the table, teams take fewer shots on target and allow more. The balance tilts away from them, taking title hopes with it.
These figures would suggest that it is better to focus on going forward, as the range between first and sixth is greater in attack (1.2) than it is at the back (1.0). What of the ‘attack wins you games, defence wins you titles’ idea?
If we discount the seven instances in the last 29 seasons of the Premier League champions having the best record for goals both for and against, the best attack has 13 titles compared to just four for the leading defence. A title-winner needs to be strong at the back, sharper up front.
Using this assumption, Chelsea are better placed for a title push than Arsenal. Both clubs have a 1.2 shots on target per 90 difference, but the Blues’ attack versus defence numbers are 5.7-4.5 compared to 4.9-3.7 for Mikel Arteta’s men.
Even if the west London side have an advantage over their cousins from the north of the capital, you will note from the above chart that a net figure of +1.2 does not scream champions. The four teams who delivered exactly that record in the past finished no better than fourth (Manchester United in 2014/15).
The good news for Arne Slot is that his Liverpool side are the best in class at both ends this season, by averaging six shots on target per game while allowing 3.5 in return. That gives them the 2.5 average that traditionally points towards the silver medal, albeit any team going for the championship in a given season only has to better their contemporaries, not history.
It is interesting that past seasons suggest the Reds of this campaign are not particularly great though. There have been plenty of better teams for shots on target difference, both at Liverpool and outside. Does this suggest the league has got more competitive this season? Here are the club’s best campaigns by this metric.
It feels fair to take some of the historic standings with a grain of doubt. Were the Liverpool of 2005/06 really that attacking and open at the back? Memory suggests otherwise, even if memory can be deceptive.
Back to Chelsea. The inspiration for this study came from noticing their shots on target average conceded of 4.5 per game. It is too high to likely compete for the title, with numerous metrics explaining why it is happening.
Maresca’s men are conceding more through balls than a City team with no midfield. Among the established big six clubs, only Tottenham have allowed more open play passes into their penalty box. Just four teams are losing more of their challenges to opposition dribblers and three of them are in the bottom five. If you don’t cut off the source, shots on target will follow.
Only four Premier League winners had a rate for conceding shots on target as high as present day Chelsea, just one in the last 22 years. The closest comparable example for vaguely recent times is Sir Alex Ferguson’s final side, who won the 2012/13 title despite facing four attempts on target per match.
It is far enough in the past that we must resort to save percentage, but David de Gea was the best goalkeeper in the division that season. Robert Sánchez is second only to Alisson for this simple stat in 2024/25, a surprising discovery having seen him play. The Chelsea stopper has already made four Opta-defined defensive errors when de Gea made two in the whole campaign 12 years ago.
In this more enlightened era, we can also call upon performance against xG on target. Across his Premier League career, Sánchez has conceded 7.2 goals more than expected. While he is performing to par this term, it is the first season in which this has been the case. The former Brighton man also keeps out non-penalty big chances at the league average rate, suggesting he must be weaker at low quality opportunities. That isn’t ideal.
This is why Chelsea won’t win the title this season. It would be unlikely with the shots on target they are allowing - even if attack perhaps wins championships - and it would take a better shot stopper to override the issue. As the numbers from history show, it wouldn’t hurt if Liverpool got a bit better to be on the safe side too though.
Always nice to have the retired pro cliches like defences win titles confirmed as absolute bollocks.