Why Luis Díaz is The Premier League's Most Important Forward
Luis Díaz is one of the top pressers in the Premier League. It is part of why he has a better record than his positional peers for an interesting metric.
Mohamed Salah is Liverpool’s player of the season. He will receive the equivalent gongs from his fellow professionals and football writers. The 2025 Ballon d’Or should be his too, but it won’t be. Would anybody be shocked if he won Masterchef or Britain’s Got Talent? Probably not.
If a Player of Spring award existed, I’d nominate Luis Díaz. Hell, this is my newsletter, it can exist here and he can have it; congratulations, Lucho.
Since the middle of February, only five players in Europe’s big five leagues have amassed more non-penalty goals and assists than the Colombian (six), with none of them plying their trade in England.
Díaz made a goal contribution in six of Liverpool’s eight league matches in this period, only playing nine minutes in one of the exceptions. When your team wins 2-0 at Manchester City in your worst game for tangible output, you can probably live with yourself.
He also drew blanks in both legs against Paris Saint-Germain and the Carabao Cup final. If you can name a Red who was spectacular in those games, please hit the comments section at the bottom.
As much as we naturally assess attackers on how many goals they score or set up, they must also defend from the front. Reviewing the Statsbomb pressure numbers (on Fantasy Football Scout) for the 2-1 win against West Ham revealed Díaz to have logged 30, the most of any Liverpool player. Adjusting for possession for men who played at least 80 minutes this weekend finds just three across the Premier League who made more, all of whom are central midfielders.
That he was the Reds’ leading presser last time out isn’t unusual, he has been several times already this season. Nonetheless, Díaz’ efforts across the whole campaign deserve highlighting. They may help explain why he is in one sense the most important forward in the 2024/25 Premier League.
Liverpool’s number seven is sixth in the top flight for possession-adjusted pressures per 90 minutes by players with at least as much pitch time. As good as he has been, Díaz can’t keep pace with Dominik Szoboszlai.
You will recall that Anthony Gordon was heavily linked with the Reds last summer, so it’s good to see he delivers an elite defensive work rate should that move ever come to pass.
More impressive for Díaz is how well he compares to Liverpool players of the past. Historic Statsbomb data from when it was previously on FBRef showed Roberto Firmino made 33.1 possession-adjusted pressures per 90 in 2018/19 before Diogo Jota averaged 30.0 three years later. Nobody else reached what Lucho has done this season.
That’s a far more appropriate comparison than looking at how he matches up to opposition vice Szoboszlai. One is on the flank, the other regularly in the thick of the action. It would be a surprise if the Hungarian didn’t press more often.
Yet an idle glance of FBRef shows how both men are categorised as ‘attacking midfielder/winger’, when those are very different roles. If you view Díaz’s defensive percentile stats in that class he looks uninspiring; compared against forwards he is almost off the scale. The truth lies between the two.
Regardless, pressing is an important facet of the Colombian’s game, one for which he doesn’t get as much credit as he deserves. It will be part of why he has the best individual record of any of Arne Slot’s players in the Premier League.
By this, we are referring to Liverpool’s goal difference when Díaz (or anyone else) is on the pitch. Lucho’s figure of +44 (from 59 scored, 15 conceded) is nothing to do with a dialling code but it puts him one ahead of Salah. Nobody with more than 164 minutes on the pitch has a better record per 90 either.
One player obviously can’t account for all of it, no matter how many goal contributions they make or defensive actions they record. Some of it is down to good or bad fortune with when the manager includes a player in either half of a substitution equation too.
Whatever is ultimately behind it, Díaz has been more of a lucky charm than a jinx in 2024/25. The Reds have lost just two league matches this term; they were 0-0 against Nottingham Forest when the former Porto man was withdrawn, then he scored the only goal of the game during his time on the pitch at Fulham.
As a sub, Díaz had a remarkable run through November into December. The Reds scored within four minutes of his introduction in games against Brighton, Southampton and Newcastle, ‘winning’ the time that he was on the pitch to earn an extra seven points.
He didn’t contribute directly to the goals (we’re back to luck) but any line up change gives the opposition new problems to solve. Only at Arsenal and Brentford did Liverpool gain points following his withdrawal. Remember Díaz’s +44 goal difference? The Reds are -1 for the time in which he wasn’t involved.
He likely won’t have time left to top the goal difference chart for Premier League forwards over the last decade. Salah’s 2018/19 campaign tops the chart as Liverpool scored 63 goals more than they conceded (83-20) in his presence.
It makes sense to only look at forwards for this as they tend to be substituted more. Plenty of goalkeepers and centre-backs have better personal goal differences as they can play every minute when fit.
And so here we are. Díaz has very few positional peers across the last seven seasons of football in England, France, Germany, Italy and Spain who have produced as good a goal difference record per 90 over at least as much playing time.
Some of this will be borne out of playing for very dominant sides. Kylian Mbappé won’t have put in the sort of defensive shifts Díaz delivers, after all. Even so, as the Reds were not expected to challenge for the title this season, to be at this goal difference level suggests the Colombian is making a very positive impact.
When Liverpool are crowned as champions, Salah will deservedly receive plaudits galore. Díaz’s contributions on either side of the ball merit sizeable acclaim too.
I wrote about Lucho recently but can't help myself at the moment. He seems to have a spark in a side that doesn't have enough of one. His pressing numbers took me a little by surprise too.
All hail the most important forward in the Premier League ;-)
Thanks for this work Andrew! Lucho has been integral to our success this season. Yet, when discussing players to exit the club this summer, supporters always seem to mention him. I just don't get it.
When you look at his data compared to his peers, the only other LF across Europe that you could argue are better are: Kvara, Vini Jr, and Sane with mentions for Raphinha, Desire Doue & Anthony Gordon. Of these peers, we have 0% chance of signing any of them for next season (missed our chance on Kvara). For goals, xG, assists, xA, Lucho is right up there with these peers per 90. When you compare him on pass accuracy and pressures (his extra special qualities), he's really on his own with only Leroy Sane for company. He's just a fantastic footballer regardless of position.
I've heard the "sell to buy" argument but elite clubs do that with their squad, not their starters, i.e. youth players who don't project to start, or 30yo+ players who are fading performers. I've heard the "he wants to go" argument which, to be fair, his father seems to share with anyone who asks. But, to which club will he leave? Hughes won't sell him to a domestic rival. No club in Europe has a starting LF position available. So he leaves to sit the bench for Barca or goes into semi-retirement in Saudi? Nah, he signs a (deserved) extension, increasing his wages to an appropriate level while providing us more time to plan for his succession (it's not Cody IMO).