Wirtz Will Pick The Lock, Who Will Open The Door?

Florian Wirtz is a through-ball master. The problem is that he has joined a Liverpool side who were abysmal at converting them this season.

Florian Wirtz is a technician, a craftsman, a wizard with the ball. He has also been described as a locksmith.

Rory Smith mentioned this in a recent article on the number 10 role, in which he made reference to the Liverpool new boy. “Now, in recruitment circles, clubs tend to talk about a “locksmith”: someone capable of picking their way through the major leagues’ increasingly well-drilled defences. Like [Rayan] Cherki, like Chelsea’s Cole Palmer, like his international team-mate Jamal Musiala, Wirtz fits that bill.”

A previous ABF newsletter looking at his relationship with Patrick Schick identified the manner in which Wirtz picks opposition locks. “The German international topped the Bundesliga chart for through-balls in each of the last two seasons. Since summer 2021, only Rodrigo De Paul averages more per 90 minutes in the big leagues.”

Passes which bisect back lines are incredibly potent. A chance created from a corner was converted 7.3 per cent of the time across the previous 16 seasons of Premier League football. That rate rose to 9.5 per cent for free-kicks, 11.0 for all crosses.

At 24.6 per cent, a shot following a through-ball effectively has in a one-in-four likelihood of becoming a goal. There have been 65 more assists via this type of delivery than from free-kicks and corners combined despite the created chances count being 10,329 lower. Wirtz can exploit this huge imbalance to the Reds’ benefit.

Him doing so may depend on Liverpool buying a new striker. The Reds clearly struggled to make the most of their set plays in Arne Slot’s first season at the helm. Less obvious was how poor they were at putting away their chances from through-balls.

Not just bad at it, either. Spectacularly bad. Stinking out the joint bad.

Liverpool’s 21 through-ball chances in 2024/25 yielded a solitary assist when even average conversion would’ve produced five. Only one of the 92 other Premier League sides with over 20 key passes of this type since 2009/10 was more inefficient with them.

The Reds were also below average for converting through-balls in the final campaign of the Jürgen Klopp era, at 17.2 per cent. It means Liverpool have been half as productive with these high value opportunities as they should have been across a two-season sample.

Maybe our old pal ‘reversion to the mean’ will come to the rescue. Perhaps Wirtz will play so many through-balls that inefficiency can be papered over. For now, let’s see what went wrong in 2024/25 to see if it can be fixed with the existing squad. Researching this did at least offer a sizeable positive when it comes to defence-splitting passes.

There was a dollop of good fortune at hand even when a Red converted a through-ball this season. Without Southampton goalkeeper Alex McCarthy utterly misjudging the flight of Ryan Gravenberch’s pass, Mohamed Salah mightn’t have scored. Here’s the clip.

The Egyptian was the king of this metric for Liverpool this season, just as he was for so many others. Salah played the most through-balls (19), completed the most (nine) and led the standings for chances created with them (five).

You might be surprised to learn Gravenberch was more efficient with them; his passing reputation - if he even has much of one - would suggest otherwise. It’s less shocking to see Trent Alexander-Arnold among the leaders.

So far, so obvious as far as Salah is concerned. He also had eight shots thanks to through-ball chances, meaning he accounted for 13 of the Reds’ tally of 21 as either creator or shooter. While Liverpool’s number 11 therefore also missed the most, six of the seven were saved before his final effort hit the woodwork. His drought should turn for the better soon enough.

And at least he scored one, as fortuitous as it was in its way. The other major culprits for wastefulness were Darwin Núñez - shocked and stunned at that - and Dominik Szoboszlai.

This trio collectively accounted for over two-thirds of the through-ball powered shots, almost three-quarters of the expected goals. Salah and Szoboszlai at least had the good grace to miss their opportunities in matches the Reds won regardless.

As we wait on tenterhooks to see how Liverpool will play tactically with Wirtz among their number, it’s noteworthy that men whose position he might take were most frequently on the end of through-ball chances. Like Salah this season, he may lead both the key pass and shot rankings for the club in 2025/26.

With how the Reds play, Wirtz should register some pre-assists with his through-balls too. As weak as Liverpool were at converting chances from these passes, so they were near-flawless when a through-ball played in an eventual assister. It is for this reason that we should not be too concerned by their lack of direct assists.

While we’re now looking at shots following a through-ball pre-assist, Núñez was again responsible for a miss (against Leicester on Boxing Day). However, this time his was the only complete waste; five of the other six led directly to goals, the other was converted following a rebound.

These strikes are worth reliving as there are some lovely examples of how a through-ball unlocks a defence. They were mostly for important goals too. You can feel the dread enclouding opposition minds as you watch the clips back, once the defenders realise they are in serious trouble.

(The names of the players headlining the following clips are the through-ball passer rather than the goal scorer. If you’re on the website, double click the videos to then play the clip).

Trent Alexander-Arnold, Ipswich (A)

The first goal of the season.

Kostas Tsimikas, Crystal Palace (A)

A winning goal away from home.

Trent Alexander-Arnold, Arsenal (A)

A late equaliser in a top-of-the-table clash.

Luis Díaz, Tottenham (A)

This led to a Salah goal in Liverpool’s highest scoring game of 2024/25, though it wasn’t a pre-assist as such.

Mohamed Salah, Tottenham (H)

The goal that secured the Premier League title.

Mohamed Salah, Arsenal (H)

This one didn’t count for much but it saw the same trio combine as for the above goal. The next chance included in the highlights came from a similar Salah pass too.

It’s also nice to get another goal in this manner against Arsenal’s supposedly impenetrable defence.

As hinted at earlier, the average value of a through-ball chance is 0.246 xG, yet these six were worth 0.56, over twice as much. With Wirtz able to play more through-balls than just about anyone, this may prove to be the way in which he is most influential.

It’s not about the pass, it’s about the pass before the pass.