Alexander Isak or Hugo Ekitike?
Liverpool, Newcastle and Eintracht Frankfurt are locked in something of a triangle regarding two strikers. Which way should the Reds turn?
Newcastle have had a £70m bid for Eintracht Frankfurt striker Hugo Ekitike turned down. His release clause is reported to be €100m (£86.6m).
Still, at least they have Alexander Isak, the man Transfermarkt rate as the third highest value centre-forward in the world. With Erling Haaland and Kylian Mbappé going nowhere for the foreseeable future, Isak is the most valuable striker potentially switching clubs this summer. The Magpies are said to be looking for around £130m for the 25-year-old.
Which is where Liverpool come in. They have approached Newcastle about Isak’s availability while making a similar move for Ekitike. It’s been reported a bid for the latter will be made soon. There’s rumoured interest in Victor Osimhen, Ollie Watkins and Yoanne Wissa too. Let’s leave aside that the club rarely sign a second choice when their preferred option is unavailable, should the Reds prioritise Alexander Isak or Hugo Ekitike?
The picture at the top illustrates my feelings on the matter; Liverpool should sign Rodrygo instead. Anfield Index Under Pressure’s Dan Kennett summed the situation up well on Wednesday evening.
There has been far less journalistic chatter about Rodrygo, so let’s focus on Ekitike and Isak. The natural inclination around these parts is to head to FBRef to compare the two men using their data. They each appear on the other’s list of 10 most similar players across the previous 365 days. Their statistical resemblance becomes hugely apparent on their combined radar.
If they’re this similar, financial logic would dictate you should sign the cheaper player. Ekitike also played 83.8 per cent of the available Bundesliga minutes this season, markedly above Isak’s three year Premier League rate of 63.7 per cent.
Other data is available to aid our decision. Newcastle fan Kev Lawson shared the players’ Hudl Statsbomb radars. While it has different metrics captured by a different company, the duo now look far less alike.
With wider margins at play, it’s worth taking a closer look at the numbers here. As disappointing as it will be to Ekitike fans, we also need to discuss finishing.
The most striking aspect of the differences on the last radar is that the areas in which Isak was stronger show a wider margin than Ekitike’s do for him.
The biggest gap in favour of the Frankfurt forward is Aerial Wins, for which he is 28 percentiles further up the standings. Close behind that are Open Play xG Assisted (25) and Pass OBV (on-ball value, 21).
It isn’t just that Isak trounces those advantages in three categories, its the importance of the metrics in question. He is 55 percentiles above Ekitike for both Shot OBV and Turnovers, 41 for PAdj (possession adjusted) Pressures.
With the ever-present proviso that data shows what a player did rather than definitively what they can do, Isak offered more defensively, gave the ball away far less and was more effective when attempting to score.
Pressing hard is a key requirement for a Liverpool centre-forward. Doubling Ekitike’s possession-adjusted pressures per 90 minutes rate would still leave him behind what Diogo Jota or Darwin Núñez offered last season. More damningly, his figure was behind Mohamed Salah, a veteran player who has been told he doesn’t have to defend.
However, a new Opta Analyst article has stated the Frenchman pressed well. “He averaged 15.3 high-intensity pressures in the final third per 90 minutes, which was more than any teammate… Isak averaged a team-high 19.6 high-intensity pressures per 90 in the Premier League last season.” Again, we’ve hit a fork in the data road for Opta versus Hudl Statsbomb, but the gap between the two strikers may not be cavernous after all.
On turnovers of possession per 90, Ekitike was again worse than Salah, the man who amassed more of them than any other Premier League player in 2024/25. When you’re the top scorer and leading assist provider in the division, this sort of issue can be overlooked. When you’re the new £86m kid in town, not so much.
With age on his side, it’s reasonable to assume Ekitike can press fiercely. Hopefully better decision making with experience will lower his turnover rate too. Shooting effectively will always remain a very big deal regardless.
Per Hudl Statsbomb’s definition, “Shot OBV contains both decision-making information and shot execution information on a player.” That’s hugely important to any centre-forward, not least one signing for an Arne Slot side. They relatively limit the involvement of the player in that position in the hope it helps them score goals.
There’s no escaping that Ekitike underachieved his non-penalty xG by 5.3, the widest margin of any player in Europe’s top five leagues. Isak, for the record, was at +1.8, putting him at a cumulative +3.5 in the Premier League.
The below shot map shows the chances Ekitike missed in the Bundesliga in 2024/25. The bigger the dot, the higher the value. There’s a lot of big dots
It’s a remarkable collection of unconverted chances. Liverpool had 11 shots worth at least 0.55 expected goals that did not become goals last season; Ekitike alone had four. Here they are, sorted by their value.
If Liverpool sign the Frankfurt player, they will be performing what should perhaps be called an inverse Núñez. He was bought after what is by far the hottest season of his career. It has since been followed by very chilly finishing in England.
Looking further back, Christian Benteke scored 4.3 non-penalty league goals more than expected in his final Aston Villa campaign. He fell less than one shy of par for the Reds, though there was little evidence of the player that had so obsessed Brendan Rodgers.
Liverpool might see the benefit of a bounce back campaign from Ekitike if he were to join. The data team at the club will also overlook finishing in favour of underlying numbers.
The aforementioned Opta article shared a chart which showed the former Paris Saint-Germain man bettered Isak for both non-penalty xG and xG Assisted last season. That will count for a lot considering the vast difference in asking price.
It will be easy for fans who mainly watch the Premier League to pick between the two. Isak is so much more of a known quantity (and a hugely impressive one at that).
Ekitike is talented but unpolished, nowhere near a finished article. Can the Reds afford to have a project at centre-forward in a season in which they’ve changed both full-backs and spent over £100m on a new attacking midfielder?
The news at the time of writing suggests they believe they can. A quick phone call to the Bernabeu mightn’t go amiss though.
Good read Andrew.
I understand fans a scared because of Núñez, but I’m excited by Ekitike.
Firstly, Núñez hasn’t been that bad. Yes he’s not been what we hoped for, but he’s scored goals, he’s made goals, and he’s contributed to a largely successful team. He’s not elite level, but it’s not likes he’s miles away from it. If he’s a transfer miss, he’s not a massive one.
Secondly, Isak does have injury issues. His availability record is a concern when you are talking about a near 26 year old and £120m plus. I can’t pretend I wouldn’t be excited if the reds signed him as he’s high class, but you can’t just ignore he gets a fair few muscle injuries.
Thirdly, Ekitike is good! He’s young! He’s hungry! His career trajectory is very similar to Isak. Join a big club as a teenager (Dortmund/PSG), don’t quite work out, join a middling club and attract the attention of bigger fish.
We are buying Ekitike at a similar time to when Newcastle bought Isak. Ekitike will cost a bit more, but not that much more with fee inflation since then.
In an ideal world he would have another good season in Germany before we pulled the trigger, but transfers don’t work like that. Sometimes you have to roll the dice.
We were looking to roll a 6 with Núñez but probably rolled a 4. We will try again with Ekitike and maybe this time we will have more luck.
Also, I love the potential of Ekitike, and happy to trust the process, but somewhat gun-shy of another cow’s arse / banjo situation when we need secure finishing.