Alexander Isak or Hugo Ekitike?

Liverpool, Newcastle and Eintracht Frankfurt are locked in something of a triangle regarding two strikers. Which way should the Reds turn?

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Newcastle have had a £70m bid for Eintracht Frankfurt striker Hugo Ekitike turned down. His release clause is reported to be €100m (£86.6m).

Still, at least they have Alexander Isak, the man Transfermarkt rate as the third highest value centre-forward in the world. With Erling Haaland and Kylian Mbappé going nowhere for the foreseeable future, Isak is the most valuable striker potentially switching clubs this summer. The Magpies are said to be looking for around £130m for the 25-year-old.

Which is where Liverpool come in. They have approached Newcastle about Isak’s availability while making a similar move for Ekitike. It’s been reported a bid for the latter will be made soon. There’s rumoured interest in Victor Osimhen, Ollie Watkins and Yoanne Wissa too. Let’s leave aside that the club rarely sign a second choice when their preferred option is unavailable, should the Reds prioritise Alexander Isak or Hugo Ekitike?

The picture at the top illustrates my feelings on the matter; Liverpool should sign Rodrygo instead. Anfield Index Under Pressure’s Dan Kennett summed the situation up well on Wednesday evening.

There has been far less journalistic chatter about Rodrygo, so let’s focus on Ekitike and Isak. The natural inclination around these parts is to head to FBRef to compare the two men using their data. They each appear on the other’s list of 10 most similar players across the previous 365 days. Their statistical resemblance becomes hugely apparent on their combined radar.

If they’re this similar, financial logic would dictate you should sign the cheaper player. Ekitike also played 83.8 per cent of the available Bundesliga minutes this season, markedly above Isak’s three year Premier League rate of 63.7 per cent.

Other data is available to aid our decision. Newcastle fan Kev Lawson shared the players’ Hudl Statsbomb radars. While it has different metrics captured by a different company, the duo now look far less alike.

With wider margins at play, it’s worth taking a closer look at the numbers here. As disappointing as it will be to Ekitike fans, we also need to discuss finishing.