Have Liverpool Been Lucky With When They've Faced Teams?

Liverpool recently played Manchester City and Newcastle without Erling Haaland and Alexander Isak respectively. Let's assess how fortunate the Reds have been.

There is a rush to discredit success in football. Liverpool look set to win the 2024/25 Premier League thanks purely to Manchester City’s ageing side crumbling into the sea at the same time that Arsenal’s treatment room has looked more like Cook County General Hospital in ER.

Never mind that the Reds’ tally of 67 points with a +40 goal difference is the 15th best start after 28 games in the English top flight since 1992, the third most impressive by a side representing Liverpool. Their impending triumph must be thanks to the failings of others.

If not that, then Arne Slot’s side must have been incredibly lucky in some way. Despite 15 different players missing a collective 118 matches in all competitions, there is a narrative stating the Reds have not had injury problems. But even if they have enjoyed good fortune with the availability of their top men, maybe appointing a new head coach who “achieved 90 per cent player availability in every season at Feyenoord” had something to do with it?

Jürgen Klopp had very few failings as manager of Liverpool but running his players into the ground may have been one of them. Another suggested source of benefit to the Reds’ title charge has been that opposing teams have missed key players when lining up for their dose of Slotball.

This idea has come to the fore in the last two weeks, not without reason. The only Premier League match Erling Haaland has missed this season was Liverpool’s recent 2-0 win at the Etihad Stadium. He was absent for the same fixture in his debut campaign too; just admit you’re frightened of Virgil van Dijk, Erling. Nobody will laugh.

The Reds’ victory over City was followed by a home win against a Newcastle side that was missing Alexander Isak for just the third time in the league this term. That’s the second and third top scorers in the division whom Liverpool have recently avoided, the jammy blighters. Anthony Gordon’s red card last weekend means the Magpies won’t be able to call upon him in the forthcoming Carabao Cup final either.

As fortunate as these recent examples are, they need putting into context. Teams miss players all the time. City’s decline since autumn may have happened anyway but Rodri’s prolonged absence likely accelerated it, for instance.

To assess if Liverpool have been lucky, we will look at the average salary in the starting XIs each club has faced in the Premier League this season. While it’s not perfect, like any model, it stands to reason that the best players for each team are among their top earners.

Or, as in the case of Casemiro - the third highest earner in the Premier League, who was on the bench at Anfield - they just have the best agents. Quick, Sir Jim, cut the soup budget even further. Minor flaws notwithstanding, this method of rating opposition line-up luck should make for a decent starting point.