Liverpool 2024/25: Over/Under Preview

A preview of sorts for the new season

What are your thoughts on your team as we approach the new season? Hoping for the best but fearing for the worst? Welcome to the club.

No matter who you support, your thinking is probably framed along these lines. Maybe that misfiring striker (Darwin Núñez) comes good and scores 20 league goals. Perhaps your new manager (Arne Slot) is the messiah and takes you to whatever your promised land happens to be. And maybe that injury-prone gem (Diogo Jota) stays in one piece to deliver the golden campaign you always knew he had in him.

The latter has been playing on my mind since I listened to a recent show from The Anfield Wrap. The panel were discussing Jota’s supreme quality following his fabulous, wrong-foot volleyed goal against Sevilla, while also acknowledging that fitness issues usually rob him of playing time every year.

Ian Ryan said that “if you could give us 28 league games [from Jota this season] I'd shake on that right now,” to which Mo Stewart agreed: “so would I, absolutely.” In other words, if given the chance to decide, they would take Jota not playing in more than 28 matches for the security of him definitely featuring in that many. You wouldn’t get him into the 30s, but neither would you run the risk of him sustaining a season-ending injury any time soon.

It reminded me of a Blood Red podcast from shortly before the start of last season, in which Dave Comerford and James Martin made over/under predictions for different Liverpool questions. For instance, they gave their opinions on whether Alisson Becker would concede over or under 39.5 league goals - it was under - and if Liverpool would get over 79.5 points, which they did.

I’ve stolen borrowed the format to think about what might or might not happen for the Reds in 2024/25. You can vote after each of the five sections, which are all Premier League only statistics, so let’s get rolling.

Liverpool Points: Over/Under 73.5

You probably think this benchmark is too low. Yet this is the bet being offered by online bookmaker Pinnacle (for whom I write and podcast). Their odds at the time of writing imply they believe there is a 56 per cent chance of Liverpool getting at least 74 points, but it’s hardly an emphatic backing of the club hitting a mark it breached in six of Jürgen Klopp’s eight full seasons.

Understat’s analysis had Liverpool on 76.88 expected points for their efforts in 2023/24. My preferred method - assigning wins rather than decimal places that don’t exist - had them at 84. Either way, they deserved to be clear of the target for this season.

Having made no signings and having had to appoint a new head coach, many people are expecting a regression. It’s certainly possible. But if Liverpool’s transfer strategy from the Michael Edwards glory days taught us anything, it’s that footballers can improve as a unit by repeatedly playing together.

Remember, the Reds started 16 matches in all competitions last season with a midfield three comprised entirely of players who were not on the roster in the previous campaign. With 10 wins and only one loss, they did well in those games too.

Even with a tactical tweak or two, the likes of Alexis Mac Allister, Dominik Szoboszlai and Ryan Gravenberch should all improve, as will Jarell Quansah as his development continues to progress. I don’t expect Liverpool to win the league but they are very capable of averaging at least two points per game.

Verdict: Over

Liverpool Goals Scored: Over/Under 79.5

Liverpool’s average across the nine seasons in which Klopp played at least some part was 80.2 Premier League goals. They bagged 86 last term, though more than 75 in only two of the last four campaigns.

As Slot’s Feyenoord scored 92 goals in 34 Eredivisie matches last season, the club’s highest tally for 40 years, we know he can coach an attack. The Reds have also scored 10 goals in their four proper (with fans) friendlies this summer, so appear capable of maintaining the form from last season.

Without wishing to state the bleedin’ obvious, the performance of the forwards will go a long way towards determining whether Liverpool can reach 80 goals. They had five players who took at least 60 league shots last season - the four non-Jota forwards plus Szoboszlai - and they all underperformed their non-penalty xG, collectively leaving 12.6 theoretical goals unclaimed.

While that might hint at a season of positive regression, Nunez has underperformed the underlying numbers in both of the last two seasons. Whisper it, but so has Mohamed Salah. The top two shot takers aren’t hitting their marks, and the Liverpool of Slot, with it’s more patient style, looks likely to take fewer shots than it did for Klopp.

With five forwards capable of simultaneously hitting double figures, I think the Reds will score over 79.5 goals. I’m braced for the occasional frustrating nil on their ledger during the campaign though.

Verdict: Over

Liverpool Clean Sheets: Over/Under 16.5

Rather than just look at goals at the other end, I thought clean sheets would be better to assess. Liverpool had the third best defensive record in the 2023/24 Premier League, but a propensity to concede (and often the first goal of a match) meant they had to work far harder than they would’ve liked to win games.

The Reds kept 10 clean sheets last term, their fewest under Klopp and their joint-fewest since amassing just seven shut-outs in 2004/05. There is massive room for improvement.

This is where Slot should earn his corn. Apart from a few questionable shooting choices, the attack doesn’t need fixing particularly. But at the back, Liverpool need to go from allowing 80 big chances, as they did last season, to much closer to half that tally.

I’ve set the clean sheet bar at 16.5, as the Reds’ average in the Alisson Becker and Virgil van Dijk era is 16.2, if we disregard 2020/21 which the centre-back missed almost entirely. As chance would have it, if we use Feyenoord’s clean sheet percentage under Slot, it works out as 16.0 per 38 games too.

But I think the Reds will fall short. The style of playing out from the back and building possession which Slot has implemented carries a large degree of risk which opposition sides will inevitably exploit at times.

Liverpool have, as yet, not addressed their needs in defensive midfield, while you can put question marks of varying importance over the centre-backs: van Dijk (out of contract), Quansah (still learning), Ibrahima Konaté (a poor end to 2023/24) and Joe Gomez (leaving?). They should improve defensively on last season, though perhaps not by that much.

Verdict: Under

Trent Alexander-Arnold Assists: Over/Under 8.5

Our one player output question relates to Trent Alexander-Arnold. Could this be his final season in a Liverpool shirt? That feels both unlikely and unthinkable, but it’s not unpossible.

In Premier League history, there have only been 15 men who’ve played at least 200 per 90s and delivered an average of at least 0.3 assists across them. There is but one defender on the list, Alexander-Arnold be his name.

He has had three seasons in which he has delivered at least 12 assists, something only Kevin De Bruyne (five such campaigns) and Cesc Fabregas (four) have done more times.

Yet Alexander-Arnold has been in a relative lull for two years. He got nine assists in 2022/23 and just five last term. His expected assist tally of 18.7 across that period shows that his colleagues’ finishing hurt him as well as themselves. Equally, he got six assists in five games towards the end of the campaign before last; ignore that for argument’s sake and he only has seven in 60 league appearances since the summer of 2022.

With such limited pre-season time, it’s still unclear exactly how Slot will deploy the England international. However, Alexander-Arnold assisted Jota against Sevilla, and with the Reds deploying some funky new set piece strategies, it’s reasonable to think the right-back/midfielder/who-knows can create at least nine goals in the 2024/25 Premier League.

Verdict: Over

Diogo Jota Appearances: Over/Under 27.5

As the conversation at the start of the article inspired this preview, it’s only fair to address this question to finish. Like the contributors on the TAW show, I’d be happy if Jota made 28 league appearances. But will he?

His time with Wolves would suggest he can, his tenure at Liverpool says he won’t. In only one of his four seasons with the Reds has Jota made more than 22 league appearances - 35 in 2021/22 - whereas he recorded 33+ in every year of his three in the west Midlands.

The various over/under selections inevitably tie together to some extent. Jota’s best chance of appearing in 28-or-more games is if he doesn’t start week after week. For that to happen, somebody else will need to demonstrate they can finish reliably, which would likely help Alexander-Arnold with his assist total and would obviously aid Liverpool’s goal tally.

But as much as things don’t have to be quite so intertwined, I’m going Under here. His history with the club sadly dictates the choice. Sorry, Diogo.

Let’s all meet up in the year 2025 and mark our scores out of five, okay?

Verdict: Under