Liverpool Have An Attacking Problem at Anfield to Resolve

Liverpool lead the Premier League for Opta-defined big chances this season. Most teams have more at home than away but not the Reds. It isn't even close.

Trying to predict outcomes in football is tough. You can consider recent form, the head-to-head record between the teams and the birthplace within Manchester of the referee, all sorts. You’ll still frequently fail to hit the mark.

Football has too many variables smashing into each other to be predictable most of the time. It’s a big part of why we love it.

Occasionally you’ll stumble across a correct call by chance, much like a stopped clock (see below). Making forecasts using data tends to be more accurate than plucking a time out of the sky, roughly 19 minutes before Raphinha scored against Inter with 86:59 on the clock in the Champions League semi-final second leg.

There is a data page on the website for this newsletter, upon which you can find various charts and tables which attempt to forecast Premier League matches.

It includes a more in-depth prediction for Liverpool’s next game, the idea being that it shows the match statistics we might expect to see if the relative data profiles for the two teams follow their season-wide averages.

Something strange occurred when plotting the forthcoming Anfield clash with Arsenal: Liverpool are predicted to have fewer Opta-defined big chances than their opponents. Every time I have pulled up this data ahead of a game, the Reds have led all four categories, but they have dropped a ball here. A big one, if Opta are to be believed.

The first port of call was to check for a data error. Liverpool’s expected goal difference per game has been 0.54 ahead of Arsenal, the second best team in the division, so they must have a better record for big (a.k.a. clear-cut) chances, right? In total, they do:

The game stats predictions are calculated by matching each teams strength on a metric relative to the rest of the Premier League at home or away depending on where they are playing the fixture. This is where a surprising, mildly troubling revelation came to light: Liverpool have an issue with big chances at Anfield.

It clearly hasn’t held them back. The Reds have the opportunity to become just the 16th Premier League team to reach 50 points at home across the last 26 seasons. They’ll have the best record in 2024/25 whatever happens in the final two matches.

A perfectionist like Arne Slot will still want his side to be better at everything. He appears aware of big chances, frequently making reference to the metric in his press conferences.

“Being 2-0 down, don't give up, try to fight ourselves back into the game - and that's what we did. We already had two big chances which we didn't score and then Chelsea were on the counter-attack a few times [and] very threatening.”

ARNE SLOT, SPEAKING AFTER CHELSEA 1-3 LIVERPOOL

He might simply be referring to chances that are, you know, big, but his comments usually align with the statistically classified golden opportunities as recorded by Opta. Assuming he follows the data, Slot will be aware of the remarkable anomaly in his team’s figures.

Liverpool’s big chance difference is comfortably the best in the Premier League. However, over 70 per cent of their +67 figure has come on the road, where they have had a whopping 82 big chances. That’s at least 17 more than any other team has had at home, never mind away.

The Reds’ big chance score is 51-32 (+19) at Anfield yet 82-34 (+48) elsewhere. This initially seems plausible in that teams visiting Liverpool will defend more deeply than when hosting the newly crowned champions. Space is the place for creating high value opportunities.

Yet only the Reds, Southampton and West Ham have better figures away than at home. As much as sides will fear going to Anfield, they will be just as cautious at the Etihad - maybe less so this season - or the Emirates.

Most clubs, big or small, are more dominant on their own patch. Not Liverpool.

The disparity between the big chance differences at Anfield or on the road for Slot’s men boils down to three matches; Liverpool had eight big chances in their 5-0 win over West Ham, 10 at Leicester and 11 when thumping Tottenham 6-3.

The rest of the Premier League have only provided four instances of 8+ clear-cut chances in away games between them this season. Striking that trio of matches from the Reds’ record would leave them with a big chance score of 53-31 on the road, almost identical to the home numbers.

They are miles ahead of the competition for this metric in away games, with the Gunners next in line on +22 (from 49 for, 27 against). While Liverpool have been better than average at both ends for big chances at home, their margin from par is not as wide as it is for Arsenal when they are not in front of their own fans. This is why the data predicts them to dominate this stat on Sunday.

Is there more to this than away teams parking their bus on the pitch at Anfield? Does Slot have a problem to eradicate?

Teams do defend deeper when away to Liverpool as opposed to hosting them. The gap isn’t as emphatic as you might think, though.

Per MarkStats, the Reds’ opponents’ average distance from goal for their defensive actions this season is 40.9 metres; 40.1 at Anfield, 41.5 at their own grounds.

Similarly, Liverpool’s average shot distance in the league is 16.5 yards from goal at home, 15.7 away and 16.0 overall. They have chalked up 2.1 through balls per match on the road compared to 1.5 in L4, so there is evidence it’s been easier for them to attack in away games, the margin just isn’t that wide.

The Reds’ minutes spent at least two goals up, excluding stoppage time, is 278-241 in favour of being at home, with the figures 574-303 for time with a one-goal lead. Game state effects aren’t aiding the creation of the very best opportunities.

The only thing which skews negatively in home matches is that four of the six in which Liverpool have failed to convert any of their clear-cut chances took place at Anfield. They won three of those home games anyway.

Perhaps the Nottingham Forest loss, Slot’s bête noire, would have turned out differently had Diogo Jota converted what proved to be the Reds’ sole big chance of the contest in the first half. It wouldn’t have been too different as the visitors would have stuck to their combination of low-block defending with counter attacking regardless.

Maybe this is our answer. We think of teams opening up when going behind but visiting teams are happy to hang in at a goal down at Anfield in the hope of pinching a late equaliser. Forest, Manchester United, Everton and West Ham (among others) never had to deal with being two goals down at Anfield. Their handbrake could remain firmly on.

Even Leicester and Southampton only faced that positions for the final minutes of the contests, with both having also taken the lead. This is the best reason I have for a relative lack of Liverpool big chances on home turf this season.

If you have any other suggestions, let me know in the comments below. Slot might be keen to hear from you too.