Liverpool Transfer Links Fit Arne Slot's Strategy

Arne Slot was hired by Liverpool for playing broadly similar football to Jürgen Klopp. The Reds might be keen to sign players to address one difference between them.

The January transfer window is open, not that you would know it based on the lack of activity by most clubs. There will likely be a flurry in the final few days of the month, though history suggests Liverpool are unlikely to make a signing unless their hand is forced by a rival.

The moves for Virgil van Dijk, Takumi Minamino and Cody Gakpo were completed within the first three days of their respective Januarys. Only Luis Díaz among significant signings joined at the end of the month, with Tottenham’s interest leading the Reds to sign a player they had earmarked as a summer purchase. If Liverpool haven’t moved yet, it’s likely they have nobody in mind.

But then that prediction is based on what has gone before. The key word for the Reds’ transfer strategy under the current back office regime has been ‘opportunistic’ ever since Richard Hughes mentioned it in Arne Slot’s first press conference at the club.

"It's a very talented squad. We need to improve, and with the window open, we will always be opportunistic." RICHARD HUGHES, JULY 2024

This mantra was brought up when news broke that Napoli were willing to sign Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, the Georgian winger whose name requires a copy and paste from Google when you’re writing about him. Journalist David Lynch confirmed Liverpool were interested in the 23-year-old, albeit Paris Saint-Germain appears to be his destination.

We can therefore file the ‘Kvaradona’ move under unlikely. This story was followed earlier this week by one from The Northern Echo entitled Liverpool could use Ben Doak in move for Bournemouth's Antoine Semenyo. The paper covers Middlesbrough, hence their interest in the future of the Reds’ on-loan winger.

Irrespective of whether the Scot would be part of the deal or not, this is not the first time Semenyo has been reported to be of interest to Liverpool. Notably, he was signed by the Cherries during Hughes’ time there. This makes it easier to put two and two together with regards to the Reds’ supposed admiration of the player, regardless of whether that sum equals four or five in reality.

Let’s take the story at face value. If Liverpool are hoping to sign Kvaratskhelia or Semenyo, it’s worth looking at what they would add to the squad. The numbers show they would plug a gap which exists between the current Reds’ roster and the one with which Slot won the Eredivisie two years ago.

If we start with Kvaratskhelia’s FBRef profile, we see his second most similar player statistically over the last 365 days is Anthony Gordon. Liverpool were in talks to sign the Newcastle man last summer, which makes it plausible his Napoli counterpart could be a legitimate alternative option. Just below Gordon on the Kvara likeness list is Díaz.

The Reds’ number seven has the edge in quite a few categories on the radar. However, Kvaratskhelia has the better numbers for dribbling, with a wider margin in his favour for Progressive Carries¹ than Successful Take-Ons.

Semenyo does not have any Liverpool players or the club’s transfer targets among his 10 most similar players from Europe’s big five leagues over the last year (beyond Ismaila Sarr, links to whom feel prehistoric at this point). As he plays in the Premier League, we can look at with whom he matches up in that competition specifically.

Gakpo is top, with Díaz and Gordon also in the group. There were no Liverpool players in his personal top 10 for last season, suggesting he may play in a way more befitting Slot’s Reds than Jürgen Klopp’s edition.

If we compare Semenyo with Liverpool’s Dutch forward, the radar is far less similar than it was for Kvaratskhelia versus Díaz. An even greater difference in ball carrying presents itself here though.

Liverpool hired Slot because they believed his style of play was similar enough to Klopp’s as to enable a relatively seamless transition. As ESPN’s Ryan O’Hanlon wrote last May:

Liverpool's games feature 94 possessions per match, while Feyenoord are at 96. Liverpool's opponents complete 77% of their passes, while Feyenoord's complete 74%. Liverpool's average pass travels 17.1 meters, while Feyenoord's goes 17.2 meters. Liverpool move the ball upfield at an above-average rate of 1.26 meters per second, while Feyenoord go even faster at 1.33 meters per second.

The two clubs’ methods were naturally not entirely identical. Progressive carries, the metric which registers highly for the rumoured transfer targets, was one minor point of difference. Feyenoord averaged 28.6 per match on their way to winning the title in 2022/23, 5.2 above Liverpool’s rate across the final seven seasons under Klopp.

The only team to better 28.6 in England across a full season since 2017 are Manchester City, multiple times. At the time of writing, only they and PSG top that across Europe’s big five leagues this season.

Two of the top 20 players for this metric in 2024/25 are Kvaratskhelia and Semenyo; Mohamed Salah is too, albeit his presence is not yet guaranteed on Merseyside beyond May. Depending on which outlets you trust, Liverpool may or may not have started talks with 1. FC Nürnberg regarding striker Stefanos Tzimas, who - while his brief career renders any statistics somewhat moot - is in the 99th percentile for progressive carries by forwards.

Three of Feyenoord’s top four men for this method of ball progression per 90 minutes in their title-winning campaign were mainly used as wingers: Oussama Idrissi (who spoke glowingly about Slot to The Guardian last summer), Patrik Wålemark and Javairô Dilrosun.

The other member of the leading quartet was right-back Marcus Pedersen. With an eye on what might lie ahead for Liverpool, it’s worth noting that Conor Bradley has averaged over double the progressive carries that Trent Alexander-Arnold has in the league since the start of last season. The youngster isn’t the better player but could he be the more suitable full-back to fulfil Slot’s needs?

Now who’s making five from two plus two? Probably me. Nonetheless, Semenyo is known to Hughes and has played exclusively in a 4-2-3-1 formation this season, as have Liverpool. It’s clear to see how he could be an asset to Slotball, although any player who completes a lot of progressive carries would be too. It might just be the stat to look up whenever a new player is linked with the Reds.

1. Carries that move the ball towards the opponent's goal line at least 10 yards from its furthest point in the last six passes, or any carry into the penalty area. Excludes carries which end in the defending 50% of the pitch