Liverpool's Counter Attack Ceiling Leaves Arsenal Staring At The Floor

Liverpool's counter attacking has set records this season. While the defending of opposition fast breaks is not as strong, Arne Slot may have solved a problem.

Football is a game of transitions, of back and forth. You have a go, we have a go. It’s why teams have similar totals of failed passes in a match no matter how many each side attempts.

When possession turns over, the possibility of a counter attack opens up. As Liverpool have taken more shots and scored more goals in this fashion than any Premier League team since records began, we recently took a closer look at their data.

It’s now time to assess the defence. This was a big problem during Jürgen Klopp’s penultimate season at the helm. The ageing midfield crumbled, allowing opposing teams to run through the heart of the Reds’ team with little to stop them.

Liverpool conceded six league goals to counter attacks (a.k.a. fast breaks) in 2022/23, as many as in the preceding four seasons combined. This was corrected last season, with the reinvigorated midfield helping enormously.

Has Arne Slot maintained or improved that further? Yes. And no. There’s a strange quirk to the goals Liverpool have conceded on the counter this season too.

There have only been three in all competitions, a definite positive. What is strange is that two of them have been against Southampton, the second worst team in the modern era of the English top flight.

One of the goals even gave the Saints the lead in a match in which the Reds had gone 1-0 up. After Adam Armstrong converted a penalty he first saw saved to equalise, Mateus Fernandes struck at the end of a fast break. When Liverpool returned to St. Mary’s for a Carabao Cup tie less than a month later, Cameron Archer hit Slot’s men on the counter to halve Southampton’s two-goal deficit.

The other goal hopefully haunts the Reds’ head coach a little less now his side have won the Premier League: Callum Hudson-Odoi’s winner for Nottingham Forest at Anfield.

This means Liverpool have conceded twice as many fast break goals in the league as last season.

Oh, Arne. How could you?

The shot total is identical for the last three campaigns with one game to play (31). As Crystal Palace sit fourth in the division for this brand of goal attempt, 2024/25 may tick over to finish ahead of the preceding two seasons.

It feels impossible that Slot’s debut year can be as bad as 2022/23 for being hit on the counter, but as discussed in the article on fast break attacking, Opta may have relaxed their definition. It’s also notable that the title-winning Reds have allowed a counter attack shot in 18 games, compared with 22 last term. Their occasional bad days - especially in a dead rubber at Stamford Bridge - pushed up the shot total without counters being such a consistent threat from week to week.

It’s notable that Liverpool have improved throughout 2024/25. At the end of game 15, against Fulham at Anfield, the Reds had conceded 16 fast break shots. They only allowed 10 in the next 19 matches.

The latter sample also included two which were hit from near the half way line. Alisson Becker is not Neil Sullivan, you’re not scoring from there.

Another, at Bournemouth, occurred in the 93rd minute with Liverpool 2-0 up so was of minimal concern. This is not to say there were not some which may have proven problematic; one in the 77th minute when 0-0 at Brentford, two when the Anfield Merseyside derby was goalless and a potential equaliser for Callum Wilson when Newcastle were in town.

Whether Slot made a mid-season tactical tweak is unclear. However, Liverpool’s final third passing accuracy was a touch higher after the Fulham match. By having a lower possession average than in recent campaigns, the Reds could be ripe to face more counter attacks. Greater ball retention in the attacking third will have eradicated that possibility to some extent (at least in terms of fast breaks as measured by Opta).

It’s impossible to eradicate all opposition attacks, though. The Premier League is far too strong to be able to do that. Here are the 20 teams sorted by how many fast break shots they have conceded, with their attacking figures included too. Until they conceded five at Chelsea, Liverpool were very close to second best defensively.

This chart suggests it’s better to be elite at attacking fast breaks rather than defensive ones, as the range is wider. Counter attack shots are good value; based on their conversion rate this season, they’re worth an average of 0.17 expected goals. It’s vital to get this balance aligned in your favour.

The scope at the back in the 2024/25 Premier League runs from 19 to 45 shots conceded whereas it goes between 16 and 66 (the Reds) at the other end. There is more room in which to stand out up front, which you wouldn’t know from Arsenal’s figures. It appears their floor is also their ceiling.

Or something. Slot’s Liverpool are unlikely to set any defensive records for conceding counter attack shots. The Liverpool of 2020/21 allowed just 12 in the league, for instance. But if they can marry a record of 10 every half season at the back with approaching two per game at the other end, the good times will continue.