Belief is lacking, maybe? We had years of Klopp teams and expecting us to score a goal and suffocate opposing attacks and we're struggling to play our way out of pressure.
Nobody seems to show for the ball or want the ball when we're defending and after regaining the ball.
Yeah, confidence has hit some real lows this season, without the collective experience of recovery. At least when Klopp's team hit some really bad spots they'd already had great seasons as a group. That must make it easier, as much as lots of the current side were there last season.
Great read as always Andrew. For me this season it’s fitness related as the few times we have got a two goal lead we have expended a lot of energy to do so (mostly), and so probably take a physical breather from the mental relief of going two up and then struggle to summon the physical and mental effort required to keep pushing.
In terms of Slot overall, the game yesterday which I was lucky enough to attend definitely felt like a step backwards. I think the PL will continue to be a struggle and so for that reason, a bit like Rafa in 2005 and the Europa League with Klopp in 2016, the CL is going to be really important for him.
The performances in European games in those seasons gave the belief to fans that we had the right man. We didn’t need to worry (too much), about the relatively short term stuttering league form because they showed what they can do on the biggest stage of Europe.
Slot has a brilliant record in Europe with us, and our best performances this season have probably all been in the CL (Real, Frankfurt, Inter).
We still have a bit to do to get through the group in the top 8. If we don’t manage that then it ramps up the pressure even more.
If we can get to the semi finals or something with some more big performances against some of Europes best, then I think match going fans will stay with him into next season whatever happens in the PL.
"Slot has a brilliant record in Europe with us, and our best performances this season have probably all been in the CL (Real, Frankfurt, Inter)."
And let's not forget, despite drawing with Leeds twice and being badly beaten by Forest, Liverpool have beaten Arsenal and Aston Villa. Better performing sides often suit teams that struggle against low blocks...
This is really great work Andrew ... appreciate it! Digging for meaning behind results is the reason why I subscribed and the "2-0 game state" has been an irritant all season ... the data were as alarming as the eye test!
As frustrating as it is to witness our current state, I still believe Arne will steer us to UCL qualification this season & to greater success in future seasons. In defense, Arne has shored up the issues for the most part. He's done so with only 2 capable & available senior CBs as Hughes failed to get the Guehi deal done. While Leeds looked like a threat in 2H, the defensive stability continued yesterday (only 3 danger zone shots, 2 of which were after 90 min).
We aren't creating enough chances in attack but Arne has my sympathy here. Lucho & Diogo are big losses. Mo & Cody's form fell sharply. Florian & Hugo have improved but it has taken / is taking time. Alex wasn't fit, signed late & has had setbacks. All of these have resulted in a malfunctioning press & fewer chances from high recoveries. Throw in poor luck/finishing vs. xG in set pieces/corners. Most of these issues lie outside of Arne's control.
Arne does have irritating habits. Playing Milos way more than Robbo. Positioning Fede (when he plays) on the wing instead of centrally. A few too many excuses in his pressers. But I admire how he's improved the new signings, tweaked the tactics to generate better results & delivered some big victories when opponents don't park the bus or use full-blown dark arts. He'll improve as a manager and we'll be better for it (unfortunately, this will likely be next season).
It's obviously not Salah's fault per se but Slot and the club must've thought he'd do broadly similar numbers this year given they gave him a contract. If that had happened, the integration of the others would likely have been easier. As I noted, Slot wanted the team to be free flowing, but that immediately becomes a lot harder once Salah is off the boil.
"Where on your bed do you like to have your blanket?" Excellent.
I've long said that 2-0 is a worse lead than 1-0. At 1 goal, you're on the edge. You're focused. One mistake and you're back to square one almost literally (i.e. might as well be 0-0 like when the match started.) But at 2-0, you relax some because you have a two goal margin and surely anyone who hasn't lifted a finger to this point in the match won't be able to start using their whole fist now, right? One goal and they think they've got something going again because suddenly they're the hunters and the team in the lead are the hunted.
I don't have answers. I continue to think that Arne overachieved with a squad that was a case of fatigue from winning the title the previous year and that once we lost key elements of said squad (namely, Lucho and Trent, but also Diogo and even Darwin for all of the good things he did off the ball), he hasn't been able to not just arrest the problem, but even apparently find an alternative. I also persist in thinking that the problem is mostly rooted in the offensive end, since we wouldn't be in a lot of these "precarious" leads if we had put the game to bed (see: Bournemouth) earlier. The fact that many of these opposing goals begin from mistakes in the offensive third, rather than those in the defensive third (Here's a little grace, Ibou) is what really needs to be sorted. But that might be because we're so predictable on the offensive end that opponents can force those mistakes.
Fascinating article. It’s interesting that the apparent trigger point is a two-goal lead.
My sense is that this may be psychological, which naturally makes it difficult to fully pin down. I’m broadly positive on Slot overall, but maintaining clarity and confidence within the team is an important part of the role.
This feels like an emerging pattern during his tenure. In the short term, I can accept dull pragmatic football, but if every moment feels anxious and there’s little sense that a game can be seen out and enjoyed, he may continue to struggle to fully bring the fanbase with him.
Beez, I think the game-state numbers you’ve pulled, particularly the split when Liverpool are two goals ahead, is a really helpful insight and excellent analysis as usual. Allowing more shots than we take at +2, and conceding ~15% of season xG in ~9% of minutes, is clearly not what Slot wants and not what elite sides usually do. Where I’m more cautious is in treating that 2-0 "behaviour" as a malfunction rather than a symptom. Time will tell.
Your own data shows that at +1 the xG differential (+0.81 per 90) is broadly fine and not far off past title-winning Liverpool sides; the collapse only really appears once the game opens further. That suggests to me we’re not looking at a broken approach across all states, but one that hasn’t yet learned how to finish games structurally. And then we have the refereeing but that's another whole conversation but pertinent to game state influence and opposition low blocks.
Where I’d gently differ is on interpretation. I see this less as Liverpool “failing to choose a direction” and more as a side still negotiating hierarchy, timing and responsibility in attack. A mature team either suppresses chaos or exploits it ruthlessly on the counter when ahead. Liverpool currently do neither consistently, and your +2 numbers show exactly why that feels so uncomfortable. That's the right-sided-gravity effect. You lose Trent and elite-Salah then any side will feel that.
As of now our attacking gravity has shifted. No player in our per-90 profile comes close to Salah’s 24-25 dominance in shot-creating actions. Instead, creation is shared across Wirtz, Szoboszlai, Jones, Mac Allister, Gravenberch, and the full-backs, each contributing without owning the attack. The Leeds game at Anfield is an exaggerated but honest snapshot of this profile.
Liverpool recorded 68.6% possession, 19 shots, 1.96 xG, and 35 touches in the opposition box, yet produced only 4 shots on target, with 8 shots taken from outside the box. Leeds survived by defending volume, clearing their lines 39 times compared to Liverpool’s 19. That isn’t a finishing collapse; it’s a timing issue. Runners are arriving but they're not committing to a shot or decisive pass. At times we're playing cute passes on the edge of the box. No one is taking responsibility. Hugo does sometimes but we're going 2-0 up and by 70 minutes (approaching our "withching hour" for conceding) he looks knackered. We don’t have options on the bench.
If these patterns persist deep into the season, your conclusion will only strengthen. But right now, I think the data fits a forming system as much as a flawed one — control without authority rather than a rejection of control altogether. I think the issue comes back to the same one inspite of what we spent this summer. How do we replace Mo.
What's obvious is it won't be within the club. Semenyo is a good player and I wrote elsewhere would be a really good option on the right for a host of reasons not just attacking especially in this period of EPL game within a game style of low-block-set-piece stuff that suits Arsenal’s 9 centre backs. But if we don't get him then who we go for, and the system we choose, will shape that attacking gravity.
What we will have that Klopp didn't is a world class midfield in Szoboszlai, Gravenberch, Mac Allister, Jones & Wirtz. That is better than everyone else. In Frimpong, Kerkez and Bradley you have three engines who can bomb forward. In Isak and Ekitike you have a proven world-class striker and another demonstrating his potential. I think Gakpo can still do a job on our left, with Hugo or Rio, but I keep coming back to Mo. We think Michael Olise is a strong candidate based on his numbers. Whether he wants to come or we can afford him is another thing. Mo will be back from Afcon soon enough and he may start producing again and we start getting beyond +2. But the same long term issue is there with or without Mo.
Forensic Mr.Beasley …..forensic, unfortunately our problems are multi fold and will not be solved in 1/2 windows but a belt and braces approach starting from the very top
Like the subject of many recent newsletters, is this something of nothing or evidence of a deep underlying flaw?
Belief is lacking, maybe? We had years of Klopp teams and expecting us to score a goal and suffocate opposing attacks and we're struggling to play our way out of pressure.
Nobody seems to show for the ball or want the ball when we're defending and after regaining the ball.
Yeah, confidence has hit some real lows this season, without the collective experience of recovery. At least when Klopp's team hit some really bad spots they'd already had great seasons as a group. That must make it easier, as much as lots of the current side were there last season.
Great read as always Andrew. For me this season it’s fitness related as the few times we have got a two goal lead we have expended a lot of energy to do so (mostly), and so probably take a physical breather from the mental relief of going two up and then struggle to summon the physical and mental effort required to keep pushing.
In terms of Slot overall, the game yesterday which I was lucky enough to attend definitely felt like a step backwards. I think the PL will continue to be a struggle and so for that reason, a bit like Rafa in 2005 and the Europa League with Klopp in 2016, the CL is going to be really important for him.
The performances in European games in those seasons gave the belief to fans that we had the right man. We didn’t need to worry (too much), about the relatively short term stuttering league form because they showed what they can do on the biggest stage of Europe.
Slot has a brilliant record in Europe with us, and our best performances this season have probably all been in the CL (Real, Frankfurt, Inter).
We still have a bit to do to get through the group in the top 8. If we don’t manage that then it ramps up the pressure even more.
If we can get to the semi finals or something with some more big performances against some of Europes best, then I think match going fans will stay with him into next season whatever happens in the PL.
"Slot has a brilliant record in Europe with us, and our best performances this season have probably all been in the CL (Real, Frankfurt, Inter)."
And let's not forget, despite drawing with Leeds twice and being badly beaten by Forest, Liverpool have beaten Arsenal and Aston Villa. Better performing sides often suit teams that struggle against low blocks...
This is really great work Andrew ... appreciate it! Digging for meaning behind results is the reason why I subscribed and the "2-0 game state" has been an irritant all season ... the data were as alarming as the eye test!
As frustrating as it is to witness our current state, I still believe Arne will steer us to UCL qualification this season & to greater success in future seasons. In defense, Arne has shored up the issues for the most part. He's done so with only 2 capable & available senior CBs as Hughes failed to get the Guehi deal done. While Leeds looked like a threat in 2H, the defensive stability continued yesterday (only 3 danger zone shots, 2 of which were after 90 min).
We aren't creating enough chances in attack but Arne has my sympathy here. Lucho & Diogo are big losses. Mo & Cody's form fell sharply. Florian & Hugo have improved but it has taken / is taking time. Alex wasn't fit, signed late & has had setbacks. All of these have resulted in a malfunctioning press & fewer chances from high recoveries. Throw in poor luck/finishing vs. xG in set pieces/corners. Most of these issues lie outside of Arne's control.
Arne does have irritating habits. Playing Milos way more than Robbo. Positioning Fede (when he plays) on the wing instead of centrally. A few too many excuses in his pressers. But I admire how he's improved the new signings, tweaked the tactics to generate better results & delivered some big victories when opponents don't park the bus or use full-blown dark arts. He'll improve as a manager and we'll be better for it (unfortunately, this will likely be next season).
Thanks.
It's obviously not Salah's fault per se but Slot and the club must've thought he'd do broadly similar numbers this year given they gave him a contract. If that had happened, the integration of the others would likely have been easier. As I noted, Slot wanted the team to be free flowing, but that immediately becomes a lot harder once Salah is off the boil.
"Where on your bed do you like to have your blanket?" Excellent.
I've long said that 2-0 is a worse lead than 1-0. At 1 goal, you're on the edge. You're focused. One mistake and you're back to square one almost literally (i.e. might as well be 0-0 like when the match started.) But at 2-0, you relax some because you have a two goal margin and surely anyone who hasn't lifted a finger to this point in the match won't be able to start using their whole fist now, right? One goal and they think they've got something going again because suddenly they're the hunters and the team in the lead are the hunted.
I don't have answers. I continue to think that Arne overachieved with a squad that was a case of fatigue from winning the title the previous year and that once we lost key elements of said squad (namely, Lucho and Trent, but also Diogo and even Darwin for all of the good things he did off the ball), he hasn't been able to not just arrest the problem, but even apparently find an alternative. I also persist in thinking that the problem is mostly rooted in the offensive end, since we wouldn't be in a lot of these "precarious" leads if we had put the game to bed (see: Bournemouth) earlier. The fact that many of these opposing goals begin from mistakes in the offensive third, rather than those in the defensive third (Here's a little grace, Ibou) is what really needs to be sorted. But that might be because we're so predictable on the offensive end that opponents can force those mistakes.
Fascinating article. It’s interesting that the apparent trigger point is a two-goal lead.
My sense is that this may be psychological, which naturally makes it difficult to fully pin down. I’m broadly positive on Slot overall, but maintaining clarity and confidence within the team is an important part of the role.
This feels like an emerging pattern during his tenure. In the short term, I can accept dull pragmatic football, but if every moment feels anxious and there’s little sense that a game can be seen out and enjoyed, he may continue to struggle to fully bring the fanbase with him.
Beez, I think the game-state numbers you’ve pulled, particularly the split when Liverpool are two goals ahead, is a really helpful insight and excellent analysis as usual. Allowing more shots than we take at +2, and conceding ~15% of season xG in ~9% of minutes, is clearly not what Slot wants and not what elite sides usually do. Where I’m more cautious is in treating that 2-0 "behaviour" as a malfunction rather than a symptom. Time will tell.
Your own data shows that at +1 the xG differential (+0.81 per 90) is broadly fine and not far off past title-winning Liverpool sides; the collapse only really appears once the game opens further. That suggests to me we’re not looking at a broken approach across all states, but one that hasn’t yet learned how to finish games structurally. And then we have the refereeing but that's another whole conversation but pertinent to game state influence and opposition low blocks.
Where I’d gently differ is on interpretation. I see this less as Liverpool “failing to choose a direction” and more as a side still negotiating hierarchy, timing and responsibility in attack. A mature team either suppresses chaos or exploits it ruthlessly on the counter when ahead. Liverpool currently do neither consistently, and your +2 numbers show exactly why that feels so uncomfortable. That's the right-sided-gravity effect. You lose Trent and elite-Salah then any side will feel that.
As of now our attacking gravity has shifted. No player in our per-90 profile comes close to Salah’s 24-25 dominance in shot-creating actions. Instead, creation is shared across Wirtz, Szoboszlai, Jones, Mac Allister, Gravenberch, and the full-backs, each contributing without owning the attack. The Leeds game at Anfield is an exaggerated but honest snapshot of this profile.
Liverpool recorded 68.6% possession, 19 shots, 1.96 xG, and 35 touches in the opposition box, yet produced only 4 shots on target, with 8 shots taken from outside the box. Leeds survived by defending volume, clearing their lines 39 times compared to Liverpool’s 19. That isn’t a finishing collapse; it’s a timing issue. Runners are arriving but they're not committing to a shot or decisive pass. At times we're playing cute passes on the edge of the box. No one is taking responsibility. Hugo does sometimes but we're going 2-0 up and by 70 minutes (approaching our "withching hour" for conceding) he looks knackered. We don’t have options on the bench.
If these patterns persist deep into the season, your conclusion will only strengthen. But right now, I think the data fits a forming system as much as a flawed one — control without authority rather than a rejection of control altogether. I think the issue comes back to the same one inspite of what we spent this summer. How do we replace Mo.
What's obvious is it won't be within the club. Semenyo is a good player and I wrote elsewhere would be a really good option on the right for a host of reasons not just attacking especially in this period of EPL game within a game style of low-block-set-piece stuff that suits Arsenal’s 9 centre backs. But if we don't get him then who we go for, and the system we choose, will shape that attacking gravity.
What we will have that Klopp didn't is a world class midfield in Szoboszlai, Gravenberch, Mac Allister, Jones & Wirtz. That is better than everyone else. In Frimpong, Kerkez and Bradley you have three engines who can bomb forward. In Isak and Ekitike you have a proven world-class striker and another demonstrating his potential. I think Gakpo can still do a job on our left, with Hugo or Rio, but I keep coming back to Mo. We think Michael Olise is a strong candidate based on his numbers. Whether he wants to come or we can afford him is another thing. Mo will be back from Afcon soon enough and he may start producing again and we start getting beyond +2. But the same long term issue is there with or without Mo.
"control without authority rather than a rejection of control altogether."
An excellent way of putting it, mate.
Forensic Mr.Beasley …..forensic, unfortunately our problems are multi fold and will not be solved in 1/2 windows but a belt and braces approach starting from the very top