Can Liverpool live up to their data prediction? Will dozy defending and slapdash finishing prevent that? I'm leaning towards the latter at the moment, but all hope is not lost yet!
If we can win, no matter how really, then the bigger picture is 3 wins in 4 games all comps, confidence restored, decent fixtures coming up.
If we get Dyched then it’s hard to see any kind of winning run starting. Incredible really that TNT haven’t put us as the 12.30 game, given their propensity to do so. A rare stroke of fortune.
I am sure I have read before we have a pretty strong record in the (rare) 3pm kick offs? Let’s hope that continues…
Well the recent Palace game was at 3pm, as was the infamous loss to Forest last season. But Liverpool have averaged a mammoth 2.54 points per home game at 3pm since the start of the Klopp era. 2.17 for Slot but there have only been six such matches.
I had a look - they got five more points than the season before but their xG was worse. It was worse when Lukaku played compared with when he didn't too.
Thanks for following this up. It all seems so far away but I vaguely remember that they were deemed title contenders at the start due to their CL win but by January their challenge was over.
Apparently, Mount was their MVP that season mainly playing as the right sided attacker. Also, Lukaku ended the season quite well but due to his on and off field issues he never really got back into the team.
Can serve as a warning for us when Isak comes into the team. Changing your attacking focal point apparently is no small matter.
The funny thing is that they finished with 74 points which isn't that many but is still their best total since their last title win in 2016/17! They've spent frightening money to not even go at two points per game for any season in almost a decade.
Re Isak, surprisingly Liverpool's expected goal difference has been better when he has been on the field, worse with Ekitike. One to check at the end of the season once the samples are more substantial.
A further point on this as I was just updating the Corresponding Fixtures figures.
Liverpool's expected goal difference is 3.4 worse than from the same 11 games last season, an average of 0.31 per match. The weird thing is that the attack has dropped by 4.0 while the defence has improved by 0.6, which I doubt you would assume.
If you exclude penalties, it drops to 0.24 per match, nothing too significant. As much as they're not playing well, with easier fixtures to come the underlying numbers *should* improve.
Can Liverpool live up to their data prediction? Will dozy defending and slapdash finishing prevent that? I'm leaning towards the latter at the moment, but all hope is not lost yet!
Forest feels like the key game here.
Dyche-ball, international break.
Post bad loss.
If we can win, no matter how really, then the bigger picture is 3 wins in 4 games all comps, confidence restored, decent fixtures coming up.
If we get Dyched then it’s hard to see any kind of winning run starting. Incredible really that TNT haven’t put us as the 12.30 game, given their propensity to do so. A rare stroke of fortune.
I am sure I have read before we have a pretty strong record in the (rare) 3pm kick offs? Let’s hope that continues…
Well the recent Palace game was at 3pm, as was the infamous loss to Forest last season. But Liverpool have averaged a mammoth 2.54 points per home game at 3pm since the start of the Klopp era. 2.17 for Slot but there have only been six such matches.
Any similarities between our season and Chelsea’s when they got Lukaku?
I had a look - they got five more points than the season before but their xG was worse. It was worse when Lukaku played compared with when he didn't too.
Thanks for following this up. It all seems so far away but I vaguely remember that they were deemed title contenders at the start due to their CL win but by January their challenge was over.
Apparently, Mount was their MVP that season mainly playing as the right sided attacker. Also, Lukaku ended the season quite well but due to his on and off field issues he never really got back into the team.
Can serve as a warning for us when Isak comes into the team. Changing your attacking focal point apparently is no small matter.
The funny thing is that they finished with 74 points which isn't that many but is still their best total since their last title win in 2016/17! They've spent frightening money to not even go at two points per game for any season in almost a decade.
Re Isak, surprisingly Liverpool's expected goal difference has been better when he has been on the field, worse with Ekitike. One to check at the end of the season once the samples are more substantial.
I’d have to check, but it’s a potentially interesting parallel
A further point on this as I was just updating the Corresponding Fixtures figures.
Liverpool's expected goal difference is 3.4 worse than from the same 11 games last season, an average of 0.31 per match. The weird thing is that the attack has dropped by 4.0 while the defence has improved by 0.6, which I doubt you would assume.
If you exclude penalties, it drops to 0.24 per match, nothing too significant. As much as they're not playing well, with easier fixtures to come the underlying numbers *should* improve.