Liverpool's League Season Rests On The Next Nine Matches

Liverpool are on a bad run. If things are going to turn, it has to happen immediately.

If you looked at some old Premier League tables, you might think Liverpool still had a chance of winning the title. Fourteen of the last 29 champions lost at least five games, the number of defeats the Reds have suffered in 2025/26.

Many of the losses for title winners occurred in dead rubbers though. The eventual champions in the last three decades were beaten an average of just 1.1 times in their opening 11 games. Only Manchester City in 2013/14 lost more than two, with their tally standing at four.

Liverpool’s wait to retain the title which stretches back to 1984 will have to go on for a few more years. You don’t have to like it but you’d better accept it.

All is not lost. Some Reds fans are writing off the team’s chances of qualifying for the Champions League because they are eighth. The fact they are two points off third place is far more pertinent than their current position in the table.

It’s also worth glancing at the underlying numbers. Liverpool’s expected goal difference is +3.7; not great, not terrible. It improves if you strip out penalties (to +4.5) though they remain fifth in the standings either way; equally, it’s above what Aston Villa had after 38 matches when finishing fourth two seasons ago. The foundation is there for an assault on qualification for Europe’s top table.

Further context will make you feel better about the Reds’ future. The average league position of the teams Liverpool have faced so far this season is 8.5, the highest in the Premier League. While that dips a touch to 8.8 if we look at expected points, the identity of the team with the toughest opening 11 fixtures remains constant.

Arne Slot’s men travel to Arsenal at the start of the second week of January. They play nine league games before then which will determine the shape of the second half of the campaign. We can feel justifiably optimistic about how they will perform.