The Aggregate: Replacing Trent Alexander-Arnold with Conor Bradley
As Liverpool don't make many signings, Conor Bradley is likely their Trent Alexander-Arnold replacement. Here's how things will change.
It makes sense to name a series on potential player replacements ‘The Aggregate’ after the famous scene in Moneyball, especially with how Liverpool operate in the transfer market. If the scene in question has passed you by, allow Brad Pitt to explain it for you.
And I'm too tired to care about it… The emphasis is on coping.
So sang Damon Albarn in 1993. He must’ve been fed up with transfer rumours and contract talk too.
It seems inevitable that Trent Alexander-Arnold will leave Liverpool this summer. He will generate hatred from some corners of the fanbase, while other Kopites will recognise what he brought to comfortably the most successful Reds side of the last 35 years or so.
The rival fans and pundits who have spent the duration of Alexander-Arnold’s career saying he is a defensive liability will inevitably delight in Liverpool losing a player of his quality. Such is football discourse. A talent of such rare ability (#generational) will always spark division along already tribal lines.
The issue for Liverpool is how to replace a player who has passing strengths possessed by only a very few men in world football. In all likelihood they don’t, simply because they can’t. The way in which the Reds’ right flank operates will have to change.
The next part of the Trent replacement strategy is to decide whether Conor Bradley can fulfill the role in a fashion which works for Arne Slot. This certainly isn’t a given. A radar comparison of the two Liverpool right-backs over the last year highlights the differences in their respective games.
Once you take a closer look at these numbers, you can see how they overlap in different ways which might mean the loss of Alexander-Arnold needn’t prove too detrimental.
Coping? Sure, pass the Blur LP. But what the hell, let’s rifle through some data so you can see what I mean.
We think of Bradley as a young, up-and-comer yet it’s remarkable to compare his career to Alexander-Arnold’s at the same stage. By the end of Trent’s age-21 season, he had 179 Liverpool appearances under his belt, with Premier League and Champions League winners medals in his pocket.
While Bradley will pick up a title this season, he won’t have been anywhere near as influential as the number 66, with his tally of games for the Reds less than a third as many at the same career point. If the Reds view the Northern Ireland international as Trent’s heir, they will be be backing potential over proven.
The most striking aspect of the comparison radar is that the two players occupy opposite percentile points for progressive passes and carries. Where Alexander-Arnold is at 99 and 50 for those respective metrics against other full-backs in the big five leagues, his young apprentice is at 57 and 98. Both are eminently capable of getting the ball forward, just in different ways.
In volume terms, Trent has the edge. His combined figures deliver 10.1 progressive actions per 90 minutes, with Bradley behind him on 8.1. If a shortfall of two doesn’t sound many, the team has averaged 71.6 per match this term, with over two-thirds of them from passes. Alexander-Arnold’s strength is more pertinent to Liverpool’s needs.
Even so, there is a good balance to Bradley’s ball progression. If you look for defenders in England, France, Germany, Italy and Spain who have averaged at least 3.5 progressive actions per 90 for both passes and carries since the start of last season, the Reds’ youngster is one of only 13. He might have played the fewest minutes of the group but only three have a better rate for the ball carrying aspect.
The other on-ball point of interest from the radar concerns the players’ general passing. Alexander-Arnold attempts more whereas Bradley has the higher completion rate. As the former tries more magical things with the ball, that’s easy enough to explain away.
In pure retention terms, the England international has completed just 1.4 more passes per 90 of the two players over the last year. It’s nothing. Arne ‘kill them with passes’ Slot won’t mind having a more cautious passer in the team at times.
Across their Premier League careers, the duo have very similar level of involvement in possession sequences, at least according to Understat’s model. It doesn’t seem possible that Bradley has the better figures for xGChain and xGBuildup (which measure the expected goals of possessions in which players are involved), yet that is what the data says.
This unlikely outcome is probably a quirk of Bradley getting substitute minutes against tired opponents, or sometimes starts in easier matches when Alexander-Arnold needs a rest. Nonetheless, there may not be much of a drop off in build up involvement following the passing of the baton.
It could be Mohamed Salah who experiences the most notable change, assuming he stays. Where Alexander-Arnold plays long passes to set him running into space, Bradley is likelier to carry the ball to deliver it in person. Having recently asked ‘What Sort of Team do Liverpool Want to Be?’ on here in reference to their left-back pursuit, it is an appropriate query here too.
The defensive stats in the radar show the perils of comparing percentiles. The two right-backs have broadly similar numbers for most metrics, albeit Alexander-Arnold looks to be much stronger for interceptions. The difference in their respective rates per 90? 0.41, roughly one every two-and-half games. Pay it no mind.
The off-ball statistic of greatest interest concerns pressing. Per Fantasy Football Scout, Bradley has made 22.6 pressures per 90 in the league since the start of 2023/24, more than Alexander-Arnold (11.7) and Andy Robertson (10.2) combined. Even if Conor cools, he will likely remain ahead of their figures, even those from their younger days.
A team as dominant on the Reds will always look to what players can do on the ball first though. Is Bradley ready to step up, or will Liverpool just be coping in Alexander-Arnold’s absence? He won’t be better, just different. Sometimes that’s no bad thing.
The knock-on effect on Mo will be interesting to watch. Conor will under and over lap more which may aid Mo in attacking (vs. longer passes from Alexander-Arnold). Does this under/overlapping help Mo buy a yard more readily as his quickness diminishes?
A good timely read. A more offensive right back will have a knock onto the recruitment of the incoming left back. It all now depends on how the club view Bradley. Is his ceiling sufficiently high not to invest in another full back? It would help if the funds could be saved for elsewhere in the team as we have a lot to do this summer.