The Big Reason Hugo Ekitike Has To Start Every Game

Can Liverpool allow Alexander Isak time to regain full fitness while results have hit the floor? Nope, and here's why.

“Isak today? Barely a sniff; two touches in the box, one shot and one chance created. Forget how much the Swede cost, Hugo Ekitike must start at centre forward more often for now.”

The Match, The Stat: Liverpool 0-3 Nottingham Forest

The above assessment of the weekend performance by the most expensive player in English football history was a little harsh. Rewatching the first half, there were moments when Alexander Isak was trying to make things happen.

He wasn’t stationary, hanging around the centre of the penalty box waiting for the ball. Isak pulled out to both flanks, attempting to dribble into the box on the left at one point. The nature of his role also means he is reliant upon his teammates for service to some extent.

The former Newcastle man received a total of just nine passes during his 67 minutes of action. Aside from Mohamed Salah (three) and Ryan Gravenberch (two), no other colleague found him more than once. Curtis Jones and Alexis Mac Allister - the advanced midfielders in Arne Slot’s 4-3-3 formation - didn’t successfully pass to Isak at all.

The two times he received the ball in the Nottingham Forest box, Salah was the passer. This included for Isak’s only shot, if it can really be called that; he did not make decent contact on an effort that was heading well wide before a defender collected the ball.

The Swede is clearly not fully fit. For once, seeing a Liverpool player getting more pitch time during an international break would’ve been welcome. Slot needs to play Isak so he can improve his fitness and form better relationships with his teammates. It’s the only way to get him up to speed.

But can the head coach afford to do that when the 26-year-old is largely peripheral, the most successful summer signing is left on the bench so Isak can start and Slot’s job is at risk? It’s increasingly difficult to make that case when there is a big reason why Hugo Ekitike should be in the starting XI.

Despite only having roughly half as many minutes as Isak on Saturday, Ekitike received more passes (11). He also linked up with nine different players, albeit clocking up such numbers is easier late in games when teammates come and go via the bench.

Unlike Isak, Ekitike did not create any chances or take any shots. Few Liverpool players will have entered a game at Anfield with such mental torment on the pitch and in the stands though. Nonetheless, the French international has remained the more active participant of Slot’s two realistic centre forward options this season.

Isak averages fewer passes received per 90 minutes in the league, both progressive (4.9 versus 5.1) and in total (17.1 compared with 20.3). As narrow as those margins are, Liverpool’s possession has been higher in matches in which he was the starting forward (64 against 60.4) so you’d expect to be receiving more passes, not fewer.

The Reds’ goal difference is also +0.44 per 90 better when Ekitike is on the pitch, -1.37 worse when the Swede is involved. A previous newsletter looked at the former Frankfurt forward’s blossoming relationship with Florian Wirtz, but his data with all players looks healthier than it does for Isak.

This is especially true in relation to Opta-defined big chances. Ekitike and Isak have near identical rates for shooting these opportunities, at 1.21 and 1.27 per 90 respectively. As with some girls and their mothers, some chances are bigger than others, though.

Isak’s expected goals per 90 from big chances is lower (0.36 against 0.43), as is his average xG per chance (0.28-0.36). If this doesn’t fully explain why Ekitike has the better conversion rate, at 29 per cent to 14, it’s as good a reason as you’ll find beyond the random factors that affect all finishing.

Most importantly, the 23-year-old has already linked up with more players than anyone else when it comes to the creation of Opta’s golden opportunities. Cody Gakpo has teed Ekitike up for four big chances, the most by any Liverpool combination this season, with the Frenchman receiving two apiece thanks to Federico Chiesa and Salah.

Six other players have set up him for a big chance, meaning the only players who’ve created at least two who haven’t yet fed Ekitike are Ibrahima Konaté and Dominik Szoboszlai. He has been lined up for golden opportunities with crosses, through-balls, other passes into the box, passes within the penalty area and even a pass from the Liverpool box against his former club. The four big chances Ekitike has converted have all been created in different manners, each by a different player.

The front of the team seems better connected, more of a functioning unit, when he plays. Isak should reach this point eventually but can Liverpool afford to wait for it to happen, as important as it is to integrate the record signing as quickly as possible?

Judging by the fans who left Anfield in their droves before the end of the defeat to Forest, Arne Slot can’t wait a moment longer. It is Eki-time.