The Match, The Stat: Liverpool 0-3 Nottingham Forest
Liverpool's worst loss at Anfield for a decade. Where do they go from here?
Top Five Stats
Liverpool lost by three goals in the league at Anfield for just the fourth time in the Premier League era. It was only the third with fans present.
The Reds have won every league match in which they scored first this season, losing every time they have gone behind. 1-0 or 0-1 decides the result.
Arne Slot’s side have lost their last four halves of football: 0-2 and 0-1 at Manchester City, 0-1 and 0-2 today.
Two Nottingham Forest defenders scored while Alexander Isak didn’t have a shot until the 64th minute.
Mohamed Salah attempted 17 take-ons, just the 10th time someone has done this in the Premier League since the summer of 2017. The others all hit double figures for completing them, whereas he succeeded with five.
Match Review
Wound, meet salt.
Given the nature of Liverpool’s disallowed goal from a corner in their previous match, at Manchester City, we should’ve guessed they would go behind to Nottingham Forest in broadly similar fashion today. It is simply the way this season is going.
To add to the frustration, the Reds had actually started well. With 32 minutes gone, the data read 1.09 versus 0.08 on expected goals. Alexis Mac Allister had seen what proved to be Liverpool’s only Opta-defined big chance of the match blocked by last man Elliot Anderson. A goal there would’ve opened everything.
Football is much easier when you go in front. The Reds have now scored their first big chance just three times in the 17 matches in which they’ve had at least one. Even though they didn’t all occur at 0-0, seizing that moment more often would lift spirits in the team and the stands.
Instead, Liverpool then went behind through a set piece. Their mental fragility shone through, with a VAR intervention saving them from conceding a second goal immediately. To struggle in tough times is understandable given what they have been through. They look incapable of recovering from setbacks though.
Maybe they might have done so today had they not gone 2-0 down within a minute of the restart. We’ll never know, but I suspect not. Former Red Neco Williams was Forest’s top player for Statsbomb’s on-ball value metric this season before kick off, with his assist for the second goal likely increasing his lead over his colleagues. The Welshman had Mohamed Salah’s measure for most of the match too.
Liverpool created little of note in the second half as their heads dropped. Their best chance in xG terms after the interval occurred in the 95th minute; fat use. They also struggled to get Alexander Isak into the game throughout. Forest have been his joint-favourite opponent for scoring, as he netted in all four previous Premier League matches against them, with six goals in total. Today? Barely a sniff; two touches in the box, one shot and one chance created, Forget how much the Swede cost, Hugo Ekitike must start at centre forward more often for now.
In 2020/21, Udinese lost five league games in which they generated at least two non-penalty expected goals. It is the most such defeats by a team in England, France, Germany, Italy or Spain in any of the previous eight seasons.
The loss against Forest took Liverpool to four matches of this nature before December has even arrived. While the amount a team concedes must be considered too, this was the Reds’ third defeat with a npxG advantage of at least 0.6. The record? The same Udinese side, with six.
Arne Slot’s team look like they’ll claim that unwanted crown before we know it. They need to respond better to going behind but how do you lift the mindset of a group of grieving young men? Who would blame them if football is no longer even the most important of the least important things for them? FSG deciding to ditch Slot would be unlikely to lift the mood of the players either, given the responsibility they would feel.
There’s no easy fix here. Scoring when on top, as they undoubtedly were here, would mean everything though. Liverpool are a team in desperate need of endorphins.
Source for graphic: Opta Analyst.
I don’t recall Liverpool being so open when going a goal down last season. They were patient. It seems less controlled this season. Or at least it does from memory. It’s like they want to score as soon as possible.
Etitike is fitter and perhaps more in synch with the other Liverpool players. Would starting him and then getting Isak on later on help? Isak doesn’t look fit.
How do you lift players who are still grieving when football may not feel important?
I don't know the answer and I'm not even sure it matters for now.