The Match, The Stat: Manchester City 3-0 Liverpool
Liverpool were unluckier than they were poor today. For real.
Top Five Stats
Liverpool have lost their last 20 Premier League games when two goals down at half time.
The Reds have lost four consecutive away league games for the first time since April 2012.
To the best of my knowledge this is the first ever Premier League match in which two subjective VAR overturns went against Liverpool (unless it happened earlier this season).
Manchester City’s three goals came from chances valued at 0.06, 0.02 and 0.03 expected goals respectively. They were collectively worth 0.04 less than the chance Cody Gakpo missed at 0-2.
City became just the fifth team in 2025 to score three non-penalty goals from a total of no more than 0.8 non-penalty xG in a Premier League match.
Match Review
“Manchester City-Liverpool is the ultimate in viewing pleasure”
ARNE SLOT, 2022/23
You might need to rethink that quote, Arne.
Liverpool played pretty well against Aston Villa. Slot made a single change to the starting XI for the match with Real Madrid, bringing in Florian Wirtz for Cody Gakpo. His mildly amended side performed even more impressively against a much sterner foe.
With four full days separating the trip to the Etihad from the Champions League victory in midweek, you can understand why Slot felt he could go again with this line-up. It proved to be too tall an ask.
The last time that Liverpool started three games in a nine-day period while making a solitary amendment to their starting XI was back in February 2023. They had beaten Everton and Newcastle 2-0 in the first two games, so why change things? Because you’re playing Real Madrid; they won 5-2 at Anfield.
This match didn’t unfold quite as catastrophically as that one but it was also a three-goal defeat. Manchester City had also won nine of their preceding 10 league games at home. It would’ve been a very tough match when fresh, even against far from the best side Pep Guardiola has ever assembled.
Nonetheless, the Reds looked off the pace at the Etihad on Sunday afternoon. When running on empty against a tough opponent, you need a little good fortune. Liverpool were handed as bad a hand they’ve had in a long time.
Maybe that was what they deserved. But this was just the second Premier League home match in which Erling Haaland had a maximum of 0.05 non-penalty xG (per Understat), so of course he scores without barely trying. The Reds then had what looked a legitimate goal disallowed before going 2-0 down to a deflected strike from long-range.
After the break, Liverpool created an Opta-defined big chance, which Gakpo missed. The next shot of the match made it 3-0, snuffing out whatever flicker of hope the Reds held.
There was still time for Mohamed Salah to continue his run of missing every big chance he has had when Liverpool have been behind this term, albeit (as recently assessed here), it wasn’t as much of a ‘should score’ opportunity as the definition implies.
Liverpool’s previous three away defeats came down to a pair of injury time goals and a hugely controversial penalty call which was on the edge of the box, if a foul at all. Today was almost a compilation of the season, minus the late goals: they did not play that well, but had chances to perhaps get a result before fate conspired to help decide things.
If you offered Slot the chance to limit City to 0.81 non-penalty expected goals on their own patch while also having a couple of big chances at the other end, he’s shaking hands before you know it. You’d be a fool not to, yet he has watched his side lose 3-0 in exactly these circumstances.
With only two of Liverpool’s next nine league games against teams currently above 11th in the table, the performances, luck and results should turn for the better after the international break. The Reds will be a lot easier to watch if they do.
Thanks for getting this out so quickly.
For me the game was over as a fair contest after the disallowed goal.
Even my Man Utd friends thought it was a terrible decision.
Sky comms was worse than ever.
Seriously considering cancelling my subs and using those funds towards more sensible folks on Substack.
I'm glad I'm not the only one not losing my head over this. You could go to the Etihad in the form of your life and still get humbled, let alone after two games against tough opposition with barely any rotation. It was slightly worrying how the performance dipped after the disallowed goal, but they started the second half a little better. Tough place to go and we have a terrible record there anyway. I'm more interested to see how we cope with long balls and low blocks after the international break. Up the reds!