The Match, The Stat: Nottingham Forest 0-1 Liverpool
It's possible to play badly and deserve to win. Liverpool have done it again.
Top Five Stats
The first half was Liverpool’s bluntest 45 minutes of the season, with just 0.06 expected goals.
Opta’s Michael Reid noted the 12 shots the Reds conceded in the first half was their most in a Premier League game since their infamous 6-1 loss at Stoke in 2015. However, eight were taken outside the box; they have conceded more expected goals in seven first halves in all competitions this season.
After 88 minutes, Liverpool had taken just seven shots, four of which were blocked. They didn’t have any between the 62nd minute and the Hugo Ekitike header which kickstarted the crazy ending.
Rio Ngumoha created more expected assists than any player on either side in the match (0.42) despite only coming on in the 77th minute.
Ekitike has now missed Liverpool’s two highest value headed chances of the season. Without the late winner, both would’ve been in goalless draws (also versus Leeds at Anfield).
Match Review
It would be easy, and accurate, to say Liverpool were poor in their 1-0 win at Nottingham Forest. The numbers suggest they deserved their win though. Analysing matches is difficult.
What is certain is that the home side dominated the first half. After Callum Hudson-Odoi went through in the third minute, Forest’s 11 other shots before the interval were worth just 0.35 expected goals, with the most valuable rated at 0.08 xG.
Whatever discomfort Liverpool experienced, they were not being repeatedly sliced open. Aside from Dominik Szoboszlai blocking a Morgan Gibbs-White effort on the very edge of the box and the early chance, Forest didn’t have any first half efforts in the danger zone (centre of the box).
The Reds improved immediately after the break. They had four shots in the opening 10 minutes of the second half, doubling the total they posted prior to the interval. In what was a poor game for both Cody Gakpo and Mohamed Salah, they did at least combine to fashion Liverpool’s first Opta-defined big chance, with the latter heading the former’s cross into the path of Curtis Jones.
The Egyptian’s performance was disappointing after a better run out against Brighton last weekend. As per the below average positions map, every other Liverpool outfield player was - on average - basically on the half way line.
Salah was unable to generate much of value despite his touches being predominantly high on the right flank. Not one of his crosses or passes into the penalty area found a teammate. At no point did the 33-year-old attempt to dribble past an opponent. He didn’t carry the ball into the box either.
Liverpool’s poor attacking output during Salah’s time on the pitch was not on him alone. But when given the platform to be the main outlet, it’s reasonable to expect more. He looked bemused to be substituted which was frankly odd.
The xG score read 0.99-0.54 in Forest’s favour at that point. The Reds’ next chances was worth 0.53, a Hugo Ekitike header created by substitute Rio Ngumoha. As understandable as it is that Arne Slot has not overused the youngster in a difficult season for the club, he makes things happen, can turn tides. That happened here.
Ngumoha played no part in Alexis Mac Allister’s winner. It was another huge chance that finally pushed the expected goal totals over the line towards Liverpool. “My emotions were emotions of happiness and relief,” Slot said when asked about the goal after the game. You and me both, Arne.
Popping the xG values into a simulator gives the Reds a 51.44 per cent chance of winning, with 1-0 the likeliest score line. It was only a shade above 0-0, which feels fitting when the winner occurs in the 97th minute.
Lots of comments on the Reds’ disappointing performance focussed on Forest being 17th in the league. If you ask Opta, they’re the 26th best team in the world. Just as a team can deserve to win having played badly, so a poor Premier League team can be tougher than the league table implies.
This is the standard of opposition in the English top flight these days. Without excusing many expects of Liverpool’s showing at Forest, it’s pointless to assess it against their opponents’ league position. Would you expect the Reds to cruise past Napoli away from home?
You might if Napoli had been away in Turkey on Thursday night. Liverpool should’ve been able to control proceedings with a far greater grip than they had. It felt like that was going to happen early in the second half. It was not to be. With a final tally of four big chances to one, the Reds were ultimately worthy winners though.
Based on the points-per-game averages of remaining opponents, Liverpool have an easier run-in than Chelsea or Manchester United. The race for Champions League qualification would have still been on no matter the result today.
But has Mac Allister’s goal made it advantage Reds?
Source for graphics: Opta Analyst, Sofascore, Danny Page xG simulator.
that was a tough watch ... they marked our only goal threat out of the match and neither outside forward was able to dribble or create or shoot (1 hopeless shot from Cody between them).
Arne & the players have solidified the defense but, if Hugo or Florian don't score and we don't get a chance from a smart midfield run, we don't look like scoring.
The opposition threat-level graph is incredible for our second half share - probably required reading for online Slot-haters who want to hammer the entire performance!