2024/25 Premier League Season Review
Who was good, who was bad and who did or didn't get what they deserved in the Premier League this season?
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As much as 2024/25 has felt unusual, in some ways it was rather predictable. A top three of Liverpool, Arsenal and Manchester City hardly feels shocking, with the promoted clubs inevitably up against it at the wrong end of the table from day one.
The cup competitions provided variety though. The idea of Newcastle or Crystal Palace or Tottenham winning a trophy when the campaign began was not outlandish.
All three? Get out of here.
It’s 12 years since four different Premier League clubs won major honours in the same campaign. With City’s enormous collapse occurring alongside Manchester United’s worst season for half a century, many fans of English football won’t have enjoyed themselves this much for a very long time.
Liverpool were very worthy champions, as they were the best side no matter how you slice the data. The Reds topped a mini-league of the established big six clubs, won the most points at home and they led the away table too.
Arne Slot’s men were also the top performing side against teams in either half of the table. Doing well against the bottom 10 proved vital for the other clubs in the race for Champions League, as Aston Villa found to their cost at Old Trafford in their final game.
Breaking the above chart into home and away matches reveals some remarkable facts. Everton signed off at Goodison Park without beating any of the top half sides at home (apart from their 2-2 win against Liverpool).
Both City and Newcastle will be in Europe’s top club competition next season despite taking just five points on the road against the rest of the top 10, one fewer than Ipswich Town. Tottenham will also be in the Champions League when they couldn’t even top a mini league of the bottom four sides.
Fulham took almost twice as many points in home games against the top half (17) than versus the bottom 10 (nine), while only Liverpool, Villa and Everton were unbeaten against the teams from 11th to 20th in front of their own fans. It’s more evidence that the Premier League is stronger than ever before, with almost every side coming unstuck in theoretically routine fixtures.
The Reds deserved to top the table based on their underlying performances too. Their expected goal difference per game was almost 0.5 better than Arsenal’s, the second-best side in England. Napoli were the only champion in one of the big five leagues who didn’t deserve their title based on this measure.
Had Liverpool been pushed harder in the title race, their data would likely have looked even stronger. Three of their six worst matches for expected goal difference occurred after they had secured first place.
Not until the title was in the bag did the Reds ‘lose’ on xG in terms of being more than 0.4 expected goals worse than their opponents. The defeat at Chelsea (3-1 on goals, 3.1-1.0 on xG) stands alone in Liverpool’s season in this way, leaving them comfortably atop the expected points standings for 2024/25.
Hello, Bournemouth. It’s a crime they didn’t achieve a European place when you look at these numbers. Conversely, Nottingham Forest would have pulled off a multi-million pound heist if they had qualified for the Champions League. Nuno’s Eleven, anyone?
Everton and West Ham also put up double-digit points in the overachievement stakes, whereas United and Tottenham were not quite as bad as their results suggested. All bar the latter of those four clubs made a mid-season managerial change, with the impact of their second permanent gaffers varying.
Come on down, David Moyes: Football Genius. He lifted Everton to the level that his former club United were at before they sacked Erik ten Hag. Vitor Pereira also deserves a mention for the job he did at Wolves after inheriting a team that were second bottom in the table.
Far less impressive was the job done by Ruud van Nistelrooy at Leicester. He and Graham Potter both replaced unpopular managers only to make things worse. The former Brighton manager will need to make a strong start to 2025/26, having failed to enhance his reputation since leaving the Amex.
If money determines outcomes in sport - it usually does - then West Ham again look poor. Always take football salary data with a pinch of salt, but as per the available figures, the average starter for the Hammers earned more than his contemporary at the seven clubs who finished directly above them.
By sharp contrast, Brentford continue to punch considerably above their financial weight. They finished in the top half with a wage bill for their starters which was below that of Southampton.
This data has previously raised questions of how Liverpool have a higher figure than United. However, these numbers are for players who started, not the total wage bill of the club.
Regularly getting their top earners onto the pitch has been the Reds’ greatest strength this season. It enabled them to win the league, pure and simple.
Liverpool have eight players who are reportedly paid at least £150k per week. Federico Chiesa is the only one of them who did not make at least 28 league starts. Bournemouth hit that arbitrary benchmark with six of their top eight earners but no other club did so with more than four. United, meanwhile, sent more of their top eight earners out on loan (three) than made more than 25 starts (Bruno Fernandes).
The focus will now turn to transfers, as clubs look to improve ahead of the new campaign. Yet Liverpool’s two Premier League titles have occurred following very quiet summers, quieter than they are likely to have this year.
Whomever the chasing pack bring in before 2025/26, getting them on the pitch regularly will be the first challenge if they wish to reel in the Reds. All the best.
It's always good to check in on all 20 teams... especially when Liverpool are number one!
Thanks Andrew for a great season of analytical insights! Each post delivers a valuable data point I was unaware of or hadn't considered. Really appreciate your effort!