Come in, Number Nine, Your Time's Up
Liverpool haven't got much productivity from their central forwards this season. What is Arne Slot looking for and which striker should the Reds buy?
Now that Liverpool have secured the Premier League title, we can focus on what football is really all about: transfers.
Not for me, Clive. This promises to be a fascinating summer at the club, though. The Reds have won the league with Arne Slot using an entirely inherited squad, save for Federico Chiesa playing for about half an hour.
Unless he (or a youth team player) is given a pity start in the final four matches, which Slot has said may happen, Liverpool will be the first English champions for over 50 years who didn’t put a new player in their starting XI at any point1. The business the club conducts this summer will give clear indications who Slot trusts to be part of what truly becomes his team over the years ahead.
Perhaps Chiesa could start up front before 2024/25 is out. Slot doesn’t appear to have faith in Darwin Núñez, while Diogo Jota remains out of form since returning from injury. For all his flaws, the Uruguayan was previously a reliable source of shots. Darwin made things happen, it’s just that neither he nor anyone else knew what they were going to be.
A recent issue of the The Transfer Flow newsletter showed that the former Benfica man doesn’t even shoot that often any more. As writer Kim McCauley put it, “This shot map makes me sad. I’m sorry for putting it on your screen.”
Anyone who has watched Liverpool this season knows they are not relying on their central forward for goals. The starter on the right - you may know him as Mohamed Salah - has scored in 28 games in all competitions, while the occupant of the berth on the left has netted in 18 matches.
Starting centre forwards have scored in 13 games, only two more than the men stationed in the number 10 role. That position has come under criticism for not contributing enough, yet their output looks more reasonable by these standards.
Luis Díaz is unlikely to be the answer. His goal in the recent win over Tottenham will be remembered for technically securing the title, but it ended a run of seven league starts in the middle without scoring.
Just one of Díaz’s inclusions at centre forward came without at least one of Jota or Núñez on the bench (and often both). Slot has persisted with a misfiring, out-of-position winger over his strikers. If not their number one priority this summer, a new centre-forward must be on Liverpool’s wish list.
The role has certainly evolved since Slot replaced Jürgen Klopp, which has likely made it harder for the existing players to adapt. Let’s dig into a little data.
Starting centre-forwards are collectively averaging their fewest shots per 90 minutes for Liverpool since 2018/19. The proportion of them that are in the six-yard box is lower than in any of the previous seven campaigns, as is the percentage of them which are taken from outside the penalty area.
The action is being compressed into the bulk of the box, which may be no bad thing. The Reds have had 16 player seasons by centre-forwards playing at least 630 minutes in starts over the last eight seasons, with the 2024/25 editions of Núñez and Jota ranked fifth and seventh for box shots per 90.
It’s also inevitable that the centre-forward has taken fewer shots as the whole team is averaging 3.4 fewer goal attempts per match compared with last season. Slot has traded shot volume for chance quality, to dazzling effect.
He has done it largely at the exclusion of his central striker. With four games to go, the players starting there have taken fewer than half as many six-yard box shots as they did in 2023/24. As a proportion of the team’s total (shown in this chart), it has never been close to as low as it is under Slot.
It is the wide forwards who have benefitted, partially through helping each other with diagonal crosses to the back post. Making the most of Cody Gakpo’s finishing in this regard is a smart strategy; he has converted 11 of his 16 shots in the six-yard box in his Premier League career, four out of five this season. Of the four that were created by a teammate in 2024/25, three came via Salah.
The Egyptian, though not as prolific, has equalled his previous career high from 2018/19 of 14 six-yard box shots. The best English top flight campaign by a team which didn’t win the title - a.k.a. Liverpool that season - makes for an interesting point of comparison. It was the season in which Klopp used Slot’s favoured 4-2-3-1 formation most often, sometimes with Salah playing up front.
He did well too, scoring 0.78 non-penalty goals per 90 minutes in the league in that role. Salah’s average for his central forward starts in the bread and butter competition (0.77) is comfortably above Jota (0.53), Gakpo (0.46), Díaz (0.36) and Núñez (0.28). Could he be the answer for Slot?
Hardly. The role carries far greater defensive responsibilities than Salah is currently expected to fulfill. His average of 13.4 pressures per 90 is less than half of what Jota (30.5) and Núñez (28.5) have offered this term.
With the head coach looking for more goals combined with supreme work rate, who is the solution? For many Liverpool fans, it would be Alexander Isak. However, he averages fewer pressures than the Reds’ two main forwards when playing for a team that sees less of the ball. Per Understat, he has underperformed his penalty (non-six-yard) box xG by over five goals with Newcastle too.
James Pearce has today reported in The Athletic that Isak “is widely admired at Liverpool but there is an acceptance that deal would be very difficult to pull off,” adding that “other options, such as Hugo Ekitike (Eintracht Frankfurt) and Benjamin Sesko (RB Leipzig), have also been considered.”
Like Isak, Ekitike is an expected goal underachiever (-4.8) in the box across his career, whereas Šeško has been five goals above his xG in that zone in the Bundesliga. It’s safe to assume a Red Bull graduate can press too.
Which way will Liverpool go? Which option would you sign if you could? The number nine role has changed to the point it doesn’t suit Núñez while Jota is frequently injured. Let’s see in which direction Richard Hughes and Slot turn this summer.
I heard this fact on BBC radio recently. If it’s incorrect, mea culpa for including it. It sounds plausible though, right?
Isak's great but is he exactly what Liverpool need? Probably, he's good enough to adapt. I was surprised to see he's been below par in the penalty area (aside from the six-yard box) though.
We’ve not been linked with him at all, but Rodrigo Muniz at Fulham has monstrous numbers for pressing and shooting this season. As he’s on a measly £7.5k a week and his contract is up in summer 2026 I wonder if we should be looking at him a little more closely.