Liverpool Aren't Bringing Enough Danger to the Danger Zone
Arne Slot has made Liverpool cautious. You would too after three straight three-goal defeats. Has the shift come at too great an attacking cost?
It’s Danger Zone week on ABF. We’ll be looking at how Liverpool are faring in defence and attack when it comes to shots in the penalty area from the zone within the width of the six-yard box. We’re heading up front first.
Liverpool played well in their recent 0-0 draw at Arsenal. Better than most people thought they would, their own fans included.
One statistic that drew attention highlighted that the Reds didn’t have a shot on target. They last failed to test a goalkeeper in the Premier League in March 2010. As important as this metric is, would it have suddenly been a better attacking performance if someone had trundled a grass cutter effort from 30 yards out serenely into David Raya’s arms?
The greater issue - if anything can be damning when away to the likely champions - is that Liverpool didn’t have a shot in the danger zone, the centre of the penalty box. The gif at the top of the page shows their shots, represented by different colour arrows. Off Target (red), blocked (grey), on target (n/a), whatever; none of the chances were of great significance as they were not in the most valuable part of the pitch.
This issue somewhat came to a head in the 1-1 draw with Burnley too. The Reds struggled to create chances in the Clarets’ danger zone after the visitors equalised. There wasn’t a shot taken in that area in the final 42 minutes of the contest that was put on target.
Chances in the danger zone are not easy to assess, as nowhere shares the data. If not unheard of a concept, it’s not popular enough to appear neatly stacked on the likes of FBRef or WhoScored. But as Liverpool had 12 efforts in this area against Burnley, their second most of the league campaign, they deserve a little credit. There is a strange pattern to what happens when they have a lot of efforts from within the width of the six-yard box in the penalty area though.
If you had to say in which match Liverpool had the most danger zone shots this season, what would you guess? We’re excluding penalties, just to be clear.
Remember, the Reds came close to setting the post-2014 Premier League record for shots without winning against Burnley and it wasn’t that match that saw them fire off the most goal attempts in the best area.
It occurred against Nottingham Forest. In the nadir of their league campaign (so far), Liverpool had 13 shots in the danger zone. They took five before Forest scored, showing how that match might easily have turned out very differently.
Look at the top end of this chart Forest won 3-0. Bournemouth almost rescued a point just as Burnley did. Brentford battered Liverpool, Ruben Amorim had a rare good day in England and Sunderland didn’t fall too far short of a famous win at Anfield.
What happens at the other end cannot be ignored but few of what appear the best attacking performances led to victories. While the order changes if we sort by danger zone xG, it pushes the Crystal Palace match to the top. That’s hardly a ringing endorsement for the importance of this metric.
Strange correlation aside, this is not the issue for Arne Slot. If we sort his 60 Premier League games by expected goals in the danger zone, the top nine matches were last season. The bottom four all occurred in 2025/26.
Even allowing for extremities potentially being a little random, Liverpool are averaging 1.3 fewer danger zone shots per game this season. As the average xG value per goal attempt has dropped from 0.22 to 0.19, it means the Reds have lost 0.51 expected goals a match in the centre of the opposition box since 2024/25. Only 0.07 of that is thanks to set plays, which is less than expected when you think of how blunt Liverpool have been on that front this term.
The obvious explanation would be that Mohamed Salah’s level has dropped. Yet the Egyptian directly contributing to 0.3 fewer danger zone shots per 90 minutes since last season has been covered by Cody Gakpo delivering 0.3 more. He’s not just about blocked shots from just outside the box, believe it or not.
It is the wingers’ combination which has proven more disappointing than their individual figures. The Salah/Gakpo axis provided Liverpool’s two most potent danger zone combinations last season, with 5.9 xG generated. The pairing has not even mustered one expected goal this term. The back post well has run dry.
Pinning the shortfall on individuals or duos in a team game probably won’t tell us much. Here’s a better indicator of why the Reds are not causing as much havoc in the danger zone. This chart shows the combined carries, passes and crosses into the penalty area in open play for Liverpool in the previous nine league campaigns.
Liverpool are delivering the ball into the box less often than at any point in the advanced data era. Despite their possession average being 3.6 per cent higher than last season, the class of 2025/26 have lost roughly two passes and two carries. That helps explain the 1.3 drop in danger zone shots per game.
The dip in the carry numbers feels notable for a manager who has deployed fast, incisive wingers throughout his career. Hugo Ekitike (1.1) and Alexander Isak (0.5) are averaging fewer per 90 than Diogo Jota (1.6) and Darwin Núñez (1.0) offered. This outcome is partly based on the type of forward deployed centrally. The use of the position had to evolve. Fine.
But Salah (-1.5) and Gakpo (-0.8) are collectively costing over two per game on their output last term. They are also the leading men in 2025/26 among players with a decent sample, which doesn’t say too much for the rest of the squad.
We will investigate Liverpool’s defensive danger zone in the next newsletter. Whatever the findings - no spoilers - there’s work to be done up front. Getting the ball into the box more often would be a decent starting point, Reds.
The loss of Diaz and his non replacement has to factor in, I think. While Salah has dropped off, I think there's security in knowing the defence only has to worry and concentrate on a declining Salah in one v one situations as everyone seems to know Gakpo has no left leg, never mind foot, so he's going to cut inside 90% of the time.
I was hoping Rio would begin to break out this season and bring a LW threat but it looks like it'll be next year at the earliest before that happens. I think it would make more space for Sslah on ove v one before defenders get support so a potential big bonus there.
Great stuff Andrew! A huge drop-off from last season in total entries and in every mode of entry.
Some of this would seem to be opponents changing their tactics against us. I wonder if the second half of 2024-25 was as bad as the first half of this season. That was when most EPL teams began to play deeper / counter tactically. Some can be chalked up to the massive personnel shift.
Against Burnley, it was noticeable in the first 30 min how much focus seemed to be on 1 or 2 touch combinations and patterns of play on the flanks. 9 shot advantage in DZ shots but a lot of misses. Unfortunately, we had a few moments of lapsed focus in defense, one of which was scored. Aside from that, the performance was encouraging and makes me think we've turned a corner on getting the balance right.