Liverpool's Big Chances. Part Two: The Defence

Welcome to 2:1, a two-part series on how Liverpool fared with Opta-defined big chances at both ends of the field in 2024/25.

Liverpool had twice as many Opta-defined big chances as they allowed last season. Being 2:1 is a good recipe for winning a lot of matches.

They were even better in the league prior to sealing the title, with 68.1 per cent of the big chances falling to them in the 34 games which mattered. That’s a mark fewer than two teams per Premier League season hit on average.

Much of the Reds success in this field was down to setting a new data-era record for big chances, with 144. What the make up of them means for 2025/26 was analysed in the previous edition of this newsletter. Now it’s time to look at the defensive end of the equation.

The figures from 2023/24 made clear where Liverpool needed to improve; they conceded 80 big chances, which was 20 more than Manchester City and double what Arsenal allowed. The Reds needed to halve their rate from roughly two per game down to one.

Arne Slot will not be entirely satisfied with what he oversaw, as Liverpool only cut six from their defensive big chance total. Even granting a pass for the four dead rubber fixtures leaves their rate for the other 34 equating to 68 across a full season. Better, but not enough.

Thankfully the Reds possess a cheat code in Alisson Becker. No Premier League goalkeeper with a decent sample gets close to him for percentage of non-penalty big chances saved. The Brazilian is top of the class among the 35 men who’ve faced at least 67 over the past seven seasons, the only one who has been able to tip the odds slightly in his favour.

Even Allison can’t outrun ageing forever. He had his second worst campaign for this brand of save percentage last season, after 2019/20 (funnily enough; it clearly doesn’t hamper Liverpool too badly). If someone has a source for this data in La Liga then let me know, but it’s reasonable to assume Giorgi Mamardashvili won’t better the best big chance stopper the Premier League has seen in recent years.

As the Reds will struggle to generate a superior total of golden opportunities next season, any gains that can realistically be made will be in defence. A review of how they conceded big chances in 2024/25 may point us towards the solution.

It’s important to remember that not every shot allowed is of significance. Liverpool conceded three big chances at Old Trafford after they had already gone 3-0 up, while they had rattled in five goals at Tottenham before the home side registered an opportunity Opta believed they should score. Ipswich will have been delighted to fashion two big chances at Anfield, it’s just a pity they were four goals down when they did.

Despite these examples, roughly four-fifths of the highest value chances the Reds conceded occurred when the game state was no more than one goal either way. It is these 83 opportunities across their 56 matches which need to be trimmed.

There were again explanatory factors in some cases. Nine of the close game state big chances occurred in the dead rubber games, for one thing.

But some of the outliers were very concerning. Aston Villa had five big chances at Anfield during the time in which Liverpool were 1-0 ahead, putting just one of them on target. West Ham had four at that score line as the Kop watched on, then Bournemouth had three on their own patch at 0-1. Southampton did likewise along the south coast at St. Mary’s, albeit two came via a penalty plus the rebound after it was saved.

What will please Slot is that matches of this nature were relatively rare. His side might’ve kept three fewer big chance clean sheets than the class of 2023/24, but they also eradicated games in which they allowed six-or-more.

Another positive was the rarity with which the Reds conceded the first two big chances of a match, taking until the 21st fixture of the campaign for it to occur. Even then, it was at Newcastle with a patched up backline at the end of an eight-day period which also saw matches with Real Madrid and City. Defensive lapses in such circumstances should be viewed accordingly.

Liverpool faced the first three big chances of their smash-and-grab win in Paris - hence why it was smash-and-grab - then suffered likewise at Fulham. By that point the league was effectively won, with number 20 in the bag when conceding the first two ‘should score’ opportunities of the clashes with Chelsea and Crystal Palace.

There were seven fewer examples of conceding the first two big chances than there had been in 2023/24. With a high value opportunity allowed within the first 10 minutes of eight matches, the huge problem of slow starts from the preceding season was not eradicated entirely. Truly horrendous openings were largely avoided though.

In game state terms, Liverpool conceded big chances both in total and in open play along broadly the same proportion as they spent time winning, drawing or losing as appropriate. It is set plays which provide a cause for concern here.

Only five of the 27 big chances conceded from corners or other set pieces occurred when the scoreline was more than one goal in either direction. Just one happened with the Reds losing, Rodrigo Muniz scoring from a corner to put Liverpool 3-1 down at Craven Cottage.

This means that on average Slot’s men allowed a big chance from a set play at tied or a goal up in roughly every other match in which they avoided defeat.

To allow some is inevitable. For goals to be conceded in this manner cannot be avoided. It’s a lot of results which could easily have swung from positive to negative though.

Overly critical? Perhaps. But big chances from wide free-kicks saw the Reds go behind at Arsenal and Everton, lose leads at the Parks of St James’ and Villa. Chelsea squandered this type of opportunity in the 92nd minute when they were beaten 2-1 at Anfield.

To Slot’s credit, defensive improvements were made. To his mild concern, further tightening up should remain a priority.