Liverpool's Big Chances. Part Two: The Defence
Welcome to 2:1, a two-part series on how Liverpool fared with Opta-defined big chances at both ends of the field in 2024/25.
Liverpool had twice as many Opta-defined big chances as they allowed last season. Being 2:1 is a good recipe for winning a lot of matches.
They were even better in the league prior to sealing the title, with 68.1 per cent of the big chances falling to them in the 34 games which mattered. That’s a mark fewer than two teams per Premier League season hit on average.
Much of the Reds success in this field was down to setting a new data-era record for big chances, with 144. What the make up of them means for 2025/26 was analysed in the previous edition of this newsletter. Now it’s time to look at the defensive end of the equation.
The figures from 2023/24 made clear where Liverpool needed to improve; they conceded 80 big chances, which was 20 more than Manchester City and double what Arsenal allowed. The Reds needed to halve their rate from roughly two per game down to one.
Arne Slot will not be entirely satisfied with what he oversaw, as Liverpool only cut six from their defensive big chance total. Even granting a pass for the four dead rubber fixtures leaves their rate for the other 34 equating to 68 across a full season. Better, but not enough.
Thankfully the Reds possess a cheat code in Alisson Becker. No Premier League goalkeeper with a decent sample gets close to him for percentage of non-penalty big chances saved. The Brazilian is top of the class among the 35 men who’ve faced at least 67 over the past seven seasons, the only one who has been able to tip the odds slightly in his favour.
Even Allison can’t outrun ageing forever. He had his second worst campaign for this brand of save percentage last season, after 2019/20 (funnily enough; it clearly doesn’t hamper Liverpool too badly). If someone has a source for this data in La Liga then let me know, but it’s reasonable to assume Giorgi Mamardashvili won’t better the best big chance stopper the Premier League has seen in recent years.
As the Reds will struggle to generate a superior total of golden opportunities next season, any gains that can realistically be made will be in defence. A review of how they conceded big chances in 2024/25 may point us towards the solution.
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